Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is a two-time winner of the All-Star race (2003 & 2006). Among participants in this years race Jimmie Johnson has the best driver rating (108.9) and he’s ran the most quick laps (126) (stats over last seven years). I think Johnson is a good bet in this race. The #48 is quick over short runs and that’s the key to victory. In past All-Star races long runs were his achilles heel but they certainly won’t be this year with the new format. Johnson has won six points paying races at Charlotte. Last year at Charlotte Jimmie Johnson was good in both races. Last fall he was poised to finish in the top ten but while racing with Ryan Newman he lost control of his car (video). In the spring race Jimmie Johnson was going to finish around 10th but his engine blew up with a few laps remaining.

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Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has never won the All-Star but he’s had strong showings. In last years All-Star race Kyle Busch finished second behind Carl Edwards. With the exception of California the #18 team is lagging on intermediate tracks this year. On this track type they have consistently performed right around 10th. One big advantage for Kyle Busch in the All-Star race is how good the #18 team is on pit road. Kyle Busch is one of the quickest drivers on pit road and his pit crew is the best in the business. In the last seven All-Star races no driver has led more laps then Kyle Busch.

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Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Greg Biffle – Greg Biffle was very good in last years All-Star race. He finished 5th and led 46 of the 100 laps. So far this year Biffle has been the class of the field on high-speed intermediate tracks. He won at Texas (similar track) and came close at Las Vegas. In the four high-speed intermediate track races Biffle has a 3.8 average finish (best in series) and a 5.5 average running position (second best in series). My main concern about Biffle is that I don’t view him as a “clutch driver”. I think he’ll have a good race, but I don’t see him winning.

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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick always performs when the money is on the line. He’s a big time driver and he thrives when the stakes are high. In his career he’s won the All-Star race, Bud Shootout, Daytona 500, and the Brickyard 400. Last year in the Coca Colca 600 Kevin Harvick made a surprise visit to victory lane when Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran out of fuel. In the fall race he finished 6th. Harvick has been good on 1.5 mile tracks this year. In the last two races at tracks of this length he’s finished 9th and 6th.

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Jeff Gordon – Don’t look for T-Rex to come out of it’s grave for this race. With all of trouble Jeff Gordon has had this year and the wild nature of this race I really don’t like the #24 this week. Drivers will do crazy things in this race and on cue Jeff Gordon will be in trouble once again. Gordon has been good on intermediate tracks this year (results don’t reflect it) but Charlotte is a track that has been pretty volatile to the former Rainbow Warrior. In the last three races here he’s finished 21st, 20th and 23rd. Jeff Gordon has won three All-Star races but his most recent was in 2001.

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Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has been good on intermediate tracks this year but mistakes have been made in nearly all of them. At California he made a costly pit road mistake and at Texas & Las Vegas the #2 team had fueling issues. At Kansas he finally didn’t have problems. In that race he started 11th and finished in 11th. One attribute I like about Keselowski is that he’s good at milking pit road speed rules. The four guaranteed pit stops in this race should prove to be an advantage for him. Last year in the fall race at Charlotte both Penske cars underperformed. Kurt Busch complained that they were lacking horsepower.

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Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch won the All-Star race in 2010 and the following week he visited victory lane in the Coca Cola 600. Historically Kurt Busch has been an good option on 1.5 mile tracks. The two most telling intermediate track performances from him this year were his Texas performance (similar track, finished 13th) and Auto Club performance (finished 9th, benefited from not pitting). What I don’t like about him in this race is his situation. Phoenix Racing doesn’t have very many cars and if I were Kurt Busch I wouldn’t take any risks in this race. Also another big disadvantage for Busch is his slow pit crew.

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Trevor Bayne -Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 last year but this will be his first All-Star race. Last year he missed this race because he was sidelined with Lyme Disease. This season on intermediate tracks we’ve seen Trevor Bayne in action twice. He raced at Las Vegas (finished 9th) and Texas (finished 28th). I wouldn’t be to high on his ninth place finish though, at Vegas his average running position was 19th. Last fall Bayne ran his only race at Charlotte and came home with a 19th place finish. In an All-Star race it’s hard to like a part time driver. I think fully funded teams will run radical experimental setups that are good on short runs and I think the Wood Brothers will bring status quo equipment.

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6. Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton hasn’t had much success this year on intermediate tracks but with all the big name drivers missing from this race he’s somebody you need to pay attention to. His best finish on fast intermediate tracks this year is a 14th place finish at Las Vegas. In the other races on this intermediate track sub group he’s finished 22nd, 29th, and 22nd.

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5. Joey Logano – Charlotte Motor Speedway is arguably Joey Logano’s best track. He’s raced here six times and has four top ten finishes and worst finish of 13th. Since 2009 Logano has the second best average finish in the series (8.2) at Charlotte and he’s one of only two drivers who finished in the top fifteen in every race. The only other driver who accomplished this feat is Matt Kenseth. Logano’s no slouch in the races either. His average running position is 13th and only four drivers have him beat in this stat. My concerns about Logano are rooted in how he’s performed on this track type this year. His other finishes on high-speed intermediates in 2012 are 16th (Las Vegas), 24th (Auto Club), 19th (Texas) and 15th (Kansas).

1. Trevor Bayne
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kyle Busch
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Regan Smith
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Denny Hamlin
11. Kurt Busch
12. David Ragan
13. Ryan Newman
14. Paul Menard
15. Marcos Ambrose
16. Tony Stewart
17. Clint Bowyer
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Greg Biffle
20. Mark Martin

Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR

Can BK Make It Two Wins In A Row?

This week the Sprint Cup series is at Darlington Raceway for the first and last time in the 2012 season. There are two things I can guarantee for Saturday night: we’ll see plenty of drivers making contact with the wall and we will see a whole bunch of coverage on Danica Patrick. This track is rough on drivers in their first start, so I guess we’ll see how she fares tomorrow. In case you missed the practice breakdown/average speeds from the practice session on Friday, click here to view it. Greg Biffle won the pole for the Bojangles Southern 500–his second at Darlington–and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Projected Start and Parkers: Joe Nemechek, Mike Skinner, Scott Speed, David Stremme, Cole Whitt, Josh Wise, and J.J. Yeley.

My Probable Yahoo! Roster: Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Bobby Labonte

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Bojangles Southern 500:

11. Jeff Gordon – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

You can probably guess why Jeff Gordon is in the “High Risk” category this weekend. I’m sure we’re all thinking the same thing: what kind of trouble will the #24 run into this weekend? Jeff has seven victories here, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he can run well here on Saturday night, but why take the risk in picking him this weekend? I’m going to let this team get a few great runs down before even thinking about it. Gordon has seven top 5s in the last eight Darlington races, but I think it’ll be an uphill battle for him to get there this year. There are just too many other cars that look better this weekend. Jeff ran just 56 laps in practice and was kind of low on the average speed chart, which was surprising because usually the less laps you run the higher you are. He ranked 7th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average, and I think this team could get a top 10 on Saturday if nothing goes wrong…but that’s a big if.

12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This ranking may insinuate that Truex isn’t a great pick this weekend, but think of it this way: I just like a few drivers better than him. His record here at Darlington is real nice (12.3 average finish in six starts) and this is by far his best qualifying effort here thus far in his career. You also can’t look past the fact at how good this team has been in 2012 (although the last two weekends have been disappointing). I expect Truex to turns things around this weekend, though, and “get back to normal” for this season. He didn’t make a ten-lap run in either practice session on Friday, but I’m not as concerned about that here as I would be on a short track. The #56 was high on the average speed chart once again this weekend, but that should be expected.

13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Note: the only reason Jamie Mac is “high risk” is because of the problems this team had with the car in Happy Hour. The #1 Chevrolet had a “bad vibration” and the team changed the transmission. During qualifying, Jamie said something about it just being two bad sets of tires in a row causing it. I haven’t heard anything else on the issue, and if McMurray has to start in the back I don’t like him nearly as much. However, Jamie Mac was my dark horse of the week on Wednesday and that still hasn’t changed. He hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the last month of Sprint Cup Series action, and what was most surprising (t0 me) was that McMurray qualified so well for this year’s Southern 500. Usually the Earnhardt-Ganassi teams work solely on race trim in practice. Jamie has finished 16th or better in four of the last five races at Darlington and owns a career average finish of 14.5 here.

14. Jeff Burton – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Surprised? If you read my articles on a consistent basis, you should know by now that Jeff Burton very rarely gets a ranking from me. In case you missed what I said about him earlier this week, let me refresh your memory: “I’m expecting a top 15 out of the #31 this weekend (although his performance on the intermediates this year has been sad). He just knows how to race at Darlington. In the last six events here, Jeff has posted finishes of 12th or better in all or one of them, with the lone exception being last season. However, he was running top 15 that race (Yahoo! chart here) before having engine problems.” He was better in average speed than normal this weekend, so that’s a good thing. He may surprise and get a second top 10 in a row this weekend.

15. Regan Smith – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I really didn’t give Smith a chance earlier this week, but I’m starting to change my mind. I seriously think this team could get a top 15 on Saturday night as long as Regan can stay out of trouble. He’ll start in the top 10, which isn’t surprising with how well he has been at qualifying in the last two seasons, but that is his best effort at this track. The #78 was in the top 5 in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and wasn’t too shabby when it came to average speed. Before his “win”–I use that term loosely–here last season, Regan finished 21st and 17th in his second and third career starts here, respectively.

Those To Avoid For The Bojangles Southern 500:

Marcos Ambrose – What was pretty surprising this weekend was Ambrose’s qualifying effort for Saturday night’s race. His average starting position in three career starts here is 7.7 but the #9 Ford will roll off the grid in 28th tomorrow night. He didn’t impress me in average speed at all and Marcos only showed up on one of the ten-lap average charts in the practices (10th out of 11 in first practice). Ambrose finished 13th here last season but his other two finishes here are well outside of the top 20. If this race goes green for a long time, I think it’ll be hard for the #9 to get a top 20 in the Southern 500.

A.J. Allmendinger – I took a gamble on The Dinger in hopes of getting some qualifying bonus points, but that didn’t happen (he will start 16th). This team has had a major problem with keeping up with the track this season and I think that gives Allmendinger a major disadvantage this weekend because of practice being in the afternoon and the race being at night. Dave Blaney has a better average finish at Darlington than A.J. Allmendinger if that tells you anything.

Joey Logano – I’m still not sure how Sliced Bread is so bad every weekend, but it’s even more surprising at Darlington because the Gibbs gang is generally pretty good here. I’m really starting to think that Joey will be out of a ride at the end of this season. The #20 Toyota wasn’t anything exciting in terms of average speed and Logano was 16th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour (out of 18 total drivers). The last two Darlington races have ended with Joey in 35th and 27th.

Danica Patrick – Unless you’re in a league that awards points for the first driver to crash out…