ifantasyrace.com Homestead Top Projections
1. Mark Martin– Martin didn’t race at Homestead last year but don’t let that scare you off. He’s been an elite intermediate track driver all year long. Perhaps the biggest plus for him this weekend is that the 5 team will be going all out to try to get maximum points.
2. Matt Kenseth– Homestead has traditionally been a Ford track but as you know this isn’t a Ford year. As of late Matt has looked like he’s returned to his old ways. At the two most recent intermediate track races the 17 finished 3rd at Texas and 2nd at Lowes.
3. Juan Pablo Montoya– Juan Pablo Montoya won’t win the championship this year but he will be a contender for the win Sunday. Homestead is a multi grooved track that rewards drivers who effectively use the high line and this year no one’s been better at it then Juan.
4. Jeff Gordon– Jeff Gordon has finished 4th the last two times the series has visited Homestead. Gordon really wants to win another race and Homestead is the one track that Gordon especially wants to get a victory at. Gordon has never won at Homestead in his career.
5. Kasey Kahne– There haven’t been to many teams that have challenged the Hendrick guys this year on intermediate tracks but Kasey Kahne is one of them. Kahne isn’t afraid to use the high line and he’ll be able to use it to his advantage in the season finale.
6. Kurt Busch– Many NASCAR pundits thought that the 2 car would fall apart after Pat Tryson announced he was leaving the team and then Penske retaliated by locking him out of the race shop. That simply hasn’t happened. His record isn’t stellar here but we all know its scewed from past problems.
7. Kevin Harvick– Only once in the last 5 years has Harvick failed to finish in the top 10 at Homestead. Harvick has always been a traditional front runner here. RCR has also been looking better recently.
8. Jimmie Johnson– There’s no doubt in my mind that Jimmie Johnson could win this race if he wanted to. The main problem here is that every single caution that comes out Jimmie Johnson will be putting on 4 fresh tires. The 48 team won’t roll the dice at all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team pop up its hood at least once on Sunday just to do preventive maintenance.
9. Tony Stewart– For anybody who’s ever read my NASCAR Power Ranking at onpitrow.com this year then you’ll know that I’ve been saying almost all year that this team is overrated at the intermediate tracks. Stewart isn’t overrated here. I’ve got him placed about right where he belongs.
10. Denny Hamlin– Statistically speaking Hamlin should be good here. The one concern about Hamlin this week is that he’s promised to take out Brad Keselowski. I would definitely pass on Hamlin this week.
11. Martin Treux Jr.– Since Treux has become a full-time driver in Cup he’s never finished outside the top 10 at Homestead. Sunday will also be the final race for him with his long time crew chief Kevin Manion. I’m sure these two would like to go out on a positive note.
12. Greg Biffle– Biffle has three wins at this track but I don’t expect much out of him here. I physically watch the races and people who tell you he’s going to win are just looking at numbers.
13. Kyle Busch– Kyle is probably underrated here but he has shown vast improvements at the recent intermediate tracks. He nearly won at Texas and was racy at Lowes. This track for whatever reason just hasn’t been friendly to Kyle. His best finish here is 19th and his finish average is 30.7.
14. Clint Bowyer– Clint Bowyer isn’t a flashy pick for Homestead but he does have 2 career top tens here. Last year he finished 5th. Clint Bowyer always does a good job avoiding DNF’s so he’s a fairly safe pick.
15. David Reutimann– Reutimann has been a solid sleeper all season long on the intermediate tracks. His career isn’t stellar here (22.5 avg finish) but he’ll be a solid pick.
16. Carl Edwards– Carl Edwards won this race last year but things have changed since then. Last year Roush-Fenway racing was the king of intermediate tracks and this year they became a second tier team. Edwards has a 6.4 average finish here (best in the series) but I don’t think he’ll finish anywhere near that.
17. Brian Vickers– Sure he’s been M.I.A in the Chase but throughout the regular season he was just a tick below the top guys at the intermediate tracks. Vickers really needs a good finish.
18. Jeff Burton– Burton and RCR have been looking better but picking Burton still personally scares me. In the last 5 years Burton only has one top ten finish at Homestead
19. Ryan Newman– Intermediate tracks have always been the main weakness of Ryan Newman since 2004. Prior to 2003 Newman’s primary strength was the intermediate tracks. What has changed since then? Make sure you check back at ifantasyrace.com to hear my scoop during the off season.
20. Casey Mears– Mears has been greatly improved for quite some time. Last year Mears finished 8th here.
