California Fantasy NASCAR Preview
California is a big 2.0 mile track where teams that have a good aerodynamics package will excel. In my opinion California is a relatively easy to track to prepare for if you know what you’re doing.
When you set your lineup for California the most important thing to do is evaluate how your drivers perform during long runs in Happy Hour. I can guarantee you that the winner of the race will be among the best drivers in Happy Hour. Practice doesn’t matter in basketball to Allen Iverson but it does to Jimmie Johnson. “Practice…We’re talking about practice”. If you don’t know what I’m talking about click here. It’s funny. Practice is key here.
The similar tracks that you should really concentrate on comparing to California to are Michigan, Kansas, and Chicago.
What I’m going to debut here is a ifantasyrace.com original idea. What you see is the first ever super unscientific ifantasyrace Playability Ratings. These ratings are based on how good the driver is projected to be at a given track.
ifantasyrace Playability Ratings
A+ = Really, really, really good pick
Jimmie Johnson– He’s really in a league of his own at this track. Statistically speaking this is Jimmie Johnson’s third best track just behind Martinsville and Phoenix.
A = Really good pick
Jeff Gordon– Last year he finished 2nd in both California races. Gordon also finished 2nd in both Michigan races in 2009.
Carl Edwards– Even in Roush’s down year he still managed to finish 6th and 7th. Now lets see what he can do in what I believe will be a Roush good year.
Mark Martin– California is perfectly suited for Mark Martin’s driving style. You can pencil him in for a top 5.
Kurt Busch– The 2 team made the bonehead move of the race at Daytona and at California they won’t make the same mistake.
A- Still a really good pick
Matt Kenseth– The defending race champion was strong at the end of the year on the intermediate tracks using the new Roush chassis. It will be interesting to see how it works out at California.
Kyle Busch– When you analyze Busch’s stats from last year don’t even look at the fall race. He was sick and jumped out of the 18 at the first caution.
Greg Biffle– After California Greg Biffle’s my pick to be the points leader heading to Las Vegas.
Kasey Kahne– Kahne’s an elite intermediate track driver who very easily could win at California.
B+ = Just a tier below the really good picks
Tony Stewart– I’ve always felt that Stewart’s intermediate track program is a step behind the elite teams.
Kevin Harvick– Harvick was extremely strong last year in the closing intermediate tracks of the 2009 season.
Denny Hamlin– He was leading at California in the fall race last year before he wrecked.
Juan Pablo Montoya– I’ll be watching Montoya with great interest to see if he’ll still be the Chase Montoya from last year.
B = You can pencil them in for about 15th
Jeff Burton– There’s a lot of question marks here. I know I won’t be picking him.
Clint Bowyer– Clint’s a fairly safe pick. He’ll avoid DNF’s as good as anybody on the circuit.
Brian Vickers– He crumbled like a cookie late in 2009 on the intermediate tracks so who will show up Sunday. The good pre-Chase Vickers or the lousy Chase Vickers.
Martin Truex Jr.– I think Treux Jr will be an excellent sleeper pick at California. There’s a highline that can be used there and that’s where he’ll be.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.– He was running in the top 10 before he wrecked at California last year. He’s made the Chase every other year since its inception so good things might happen for him on the west coast.
B- = Got some question marks here
David Reutimann– He finished 12th and 18th at California last year. The downside here is that the competition that was down last year will be improved.
Jamie McMurray– He won the Daytona 500 but this is a whole different beast. If he can get some of the Juan Montoya 2009 magic built-in his car then he’ll be really good this year. By the way you should read my post I wrote prior to Daytona on why I think Jamie McMurray will be better this year.
David Ragan– Last year was pretty rough on him but he does have a 13.2 average finish.
Joey Logano– Sliced bread wasn’t the best last weekend but I think he’ll be OK this weekend.
C+ = I’m not picking them
Ryan Newman– Intermediate tracks aren’t his thing anymore so I’ll avoid him like the plague this weekend.
AJ Allmendinger– He was good late last season in a Ford so I might very easily have him under graded here.
C = Got some concerns here
Marcos Ambrose– He looked lost last year on the big 2.0 mile intermediate tracks with finishes of 22nd, 31st, 35th, and 23rd.
Brad Keselowski– There really isn’t enough info to make a good decision this week.
