Contender Or Pretender: Atlanta

Jeff Gordon (Contender) – In the 4 COT races held at Atlanta Motor Speedway Jeff Gordon is the only driver to sweep the top ten in every race. Over the last 4 COT Atlanta races Jeff Gordon has the best average finish (6th) and the second best average start (7.0).

At Las Vegas Jeff Gordon was absolutely dominant until the end of the race and led a race high 219 laps. In 2009 Jeff Gordon scored the most points in he series on intermediate tracks and had finishes of 2nd and 8th at Atlanta.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) – THIS IS NOT A TYPO. Did you read Charlie’s post about Does Jimmie Johnson’s Greatness Get You Down? If it does let me try to help you out here. In the stats that you can download from the Onpitrow.com newsletter you’ll be overwhelmed by how dominant Jimmie Johnson’s been at Atlanta over the last 10 races. He’s the best in the series at Atlanta in terms of  best average start, average mid race, average finish, average position, most laps in the top 15, laps led, percent of laps led, and last but not least he boasts a driver rating 110.1 which is nearly 5 points higher than his closest competitor (Carl Edwards).

So now you’re wondering how in the world is he a pretender? He hasn’t been that good in the 4 COT races at Atlanta. In the COT era his average finish here is 15th. In the first COT Atlanta race his car was out in the weeds and got lapped on the track several times (first race graph). In the next Atlanta COT race he finished 2nd but that race result was the product of fresh tires at the end in a hail mary sprint to the finish. His second place finish isn’t even close to reflecting how the 48 car was that day (second race graph). In the spring 2009 COT race Jimmie wasn’t competitive late in the race and finished 9th (third race graph). Last fall Jimmie Johnson was competitive for the first half the race but the 48 lost the handle of the car and shortly after that they suffered  mechanical failures and were done for the day (fourth race graph).

So after all of this I’ll say Jimmie Johnson isn’t bad here, but he certainly isn’t a contender. His stats are heavily padded by what he accomplished in the old car and that era is over.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) – Last fall at Atlanta is when I started to see something in Kevin Harvick that would translate into 2010 success. He had the car to beat in the second Atlanta race of 2009, but the 29 car wasn’t the best on short runs which is how that race was decided. He was extremely strong on the long runs (sound familiar lately).

This is a little bit off topic but check out what I said about Kevin Harvick in a Experts Fantasy NASCAR draft earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – Denny Hamlin has been pretty bad this year. After Las Vegas and California I see no real reason to be optimistic about Denny Hamlin at Atlanta. At Las Vegas his average running position was 20.5. He had similar uncompetitive numbers at California. For a driver who many felt would be Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competitor this year I don’t think he could do any worse.

Kyle Busch (Contender) – Kyle smoked the field last fall at Texas. He led 232 laps, but the 18 team was off in the fuel department. His success that day will translate into a good run at Atlanta Sunday.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – I can’t think of a worse intermediate track for Newman. Going back to 2005 Newman has only finished in the top ten once, and that was a 9th place finish last fall (product of fresh tires at the end). He’s good at winning the pole here (7 poles), but that  hasn’t translated into good finishes.