Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 600 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
A = Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson– Johnson has won 4 out of the last 5 races at Phoenix. If that doesn’t convince you of his Phoenix dominance then listen to this, over the last 10 races he has the best average finish (4.3), best average position (5.1), ran the most fast laps, ran the most laps in the top 15, led the most laps, and has the highest driver rating (123.0) which is nearly 19 higher than his closest competitor Kurt Busch (104.6). I hope your convinced.
Mark Martin – He’s the defending champion of the race and last fall he won at New Hampshire. He’s a sneaky veteran and with the race being lengthened this year I think it will play right into Martin’s hands.
Kurt Busch – Over the last 2 years Kurt Busch has been Hendrick’s biggest competitor. He’s also scored the second most points over the last 10 races, and he’s only completed in 9 of those events (suspended by Jack Roush in the 2005 fall race because of his funny police incident).
Jeff Burton – If you read my Phoenix Contender Or Pretender post you’ll know my thoughts about him.
A- = Really Good Pick
Kevin Harvick – Flat short tracks always play right into Kevin Harvick’s hand. With a resurgent RCR forget about what happened last year and focus on the classical Kevin this weekend.
Jeff Gordon – He hasn’t been at his best here since 2007 but last year he was strong on the short flat tracks. If you like drivers who start near the front don’t overlook Gordon because he has the best average starting position in the series (7.1) at Phoenix.
Tony Stewart – No driver in NASCAR has passed more drivers at Phoenix over the last 10 races than Smoke. His 10.9 average finish isn’t bad either.
B+ = Good Pick
Clint Bowyer – Although he hasn’t been as nearly successful as his teammates Clint Bowyer has won twice on Phoenix comparable tracks (Richmond and New Hampshire).
Martin Truex Jr. – Treux is a solid sleeper this weekend. In four out of the last 5 races Treux has finished in the top 8 here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – In the Eury golden days Junior was always a contender at Phoenix. Last year he was lost (finished 31st and 35th). If you truly believe that he’s improved this year then I would recommend you give him a look.
Kyle Busch – In the spring race last year Kyle Busch WAS going to be Mark Martin’s main contender but he was caught speeding down pit row late in the race.
B = Just a tier below the good picks
Greg Biffle – He’s having a good season, but I wouldn’t bet on the Biff here even though he has a good average finish. Sorry, it’s not gonna happen. The Fords this weekend won’t have anything for the Chevy’s.
Carl Edwards – I think he’ll be the best Ford this weekend but what I said about Biffle and the Ford’s still stands.
Juan Pablo Montoya – I think he’ll challenge for a top 10 at Phoenix easily. You just can’t predict his recent problems though.
Matt Kenseth – After what he did last year even I’m surprised I’m grading him this high. This team was downright awful on these tracks last year. Proceed with caution if you pick Kenseth.
B- = You can pencil them in for about 15th
Sam Hornish Jr. – Surprised you here? The short flat tracks appear to be Hornish’s primary strength in cup.
Joey Logano – Remember how he dominated the New Hampshire race last year when he got his first career victory? OK, I’m just kidding. Logano has been surprisingly strong across the board this year. If he can be successful at Martinsivlle then Phoenix shouldn’t be a problem for this sophomore.
David Reutimann – Last year he scored the 6th most points on the flat tracks and swept the top 10 at Phoenix (8th spring race, 10th fall race).
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose was good at Phoenix last year. He had finishes of 11th and 14th in 2009.
Ryan Newman – Statistically speaking he’s bad here. I think that because of his points situation this year I think he’ll finish a little bit better than his average.
C+ = Got some question marks here
Kasey Kahne – See Biffle, but Kahne’s had less success then his proxy teammates and hasn’t finished in the top ten here since 2006.
Jamie McMurray – His recent history here hasn’t been that bad, but his cumulative history is awful.
Paul Menard – What do we really know about him here? He’s never finished better than 21st and has always finished in the 20’s here (truly representing non-DNF average). I think he’ll crack the top 20 this week.
Brad Keselowski – Track position is very important at Phoenix and Brad’s team has shown that their willing to take risks. I think he’ll be a playable driver this week.
C = I’m not picking them
Denny Hamlin – Do you really think picking a driver who’s going to hop out of his car when the first caution happens is a good idea? I think not.
AJ Allmendinger – He’s probably highly underrated here but what has he done lately?
Elliott Sadler – In 16 races he’s only finished in the top ten once. It shouldn’t take a rocket science to decide to pass on him.
David Ragan – If he doesn’t improve soon UPS will not be happy.
