Talladega Aarons 499 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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A =Really, Really Good Pick
Kurt Busch – He’s never won on a restrictor plate track in his career but his 13.1 Talladega average finish tells you that he does a good job of avoiding trouble. Isn’t that all you really want this week?
Jimmie Johnson – If you’re in an allocation league picking Johnson would be a really dumb move. If you’re not then it might prove to be a great decision. Only once since 2007 has Jimmie Johnson finished outside the top 15.
A- = Really Good Pick
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Last spring he finished 2nd, and scored the 4th most points at Talladega last year. Juniors appears to be getting back to form and Talladega is prime striking ground for Earnhardt Jr.
Tony Stewart – It took Tony a long time before he captured his Talladega win and since then it’s been a tough road for him. Expect him to get back on track after a rough 2009.
Brad Keselowski – Why not pick him? I think the defending race winner has a huge advantage this week, he causes the big one and avoids it.
B+ = Good Pick
Jeff Gordon – Gordon swept Talladega in 2007 but since then his average finish is 28.5.
Jeff Burton – Burton’s been as consistent as anyone at Talladega over the last two years. Over that time span his average finish is 7.75. The one thing that I don’t like about Burton is that he’s been having a lot of problems in races lately.
Matt Kenseth – Even before his 2009 Daytona 500 win Kenseth was a good restirctor plate driver. His closer position last spring at Talladega was 2nd, and his closer position in the fall race was 3rd.
David Ragan – If you want to roll the dice on somebody this week consider Ragan. Restirctor plate tracks have always been his strength. Plus the Ford’s will be racing their new engine again.
Kyle Busch – His record minus his one win here is atrocious but Kyle’s been heating up and has proven before that he can get the job done.
Jamie McMurray – He’s won the last two restrictor plate races but I don’t see a third coming his way.
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Ryan Newman – In Newman’s recent Talladega history his fall race average is really hurting him. He always finishes better in the spring race. His spring average finish over the last three years is 6.6.
Brian Vickers – Brian Vickers is so good at Talladega that he won here with a third place car. Remember this.
Carl Edwards – He’s a driver who always runs better at Talladega then he finishes. Remember he wasn’t exactly in last place when he flipped last year.
Greg Biffle – Last year Biffle swept the top ten at Talladega but the truth to the story is that those are his only two at Talladega in his entire career.
Juan Pablo Montoya – He finished 2nd in 2008 and because of the unpredictability at Talladega I think he’ll defeat Johnson in the Direct TV Head 2 Head Challenge.
Kevin Harvick – He had the car to beat at Daytona but these two tracks are completely different. In the last 5 Talladega races he hasn’t finished better than 20th.
Joey Logano – Last year he finished 9th and 3rd. I think it might be worth the risk here. Lots of drivers get their first career win here so why can’t Logano get his first competitive win here?
Marcos Ambrose – His data here is limited because he’s only run here twice. Last spring he finished 4th here.
B – = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Clint Bowyer – Did you know that through the entirety of Clint Bowyer’s career he has always finished better in the fall race. His average spring finish is 30.75
Mark Martin – He hates this track and you should hate the idea of using him this weekend. In the last twelve Talladega races Martin has competed in his average finish is 27th. Over those twelve races he only finished in the top 10 twice. Martin’s driver rating at Talladega is an impressively low 61.3 (Taken from my weekly Contender Or Pretender post. Make sure you visit ifantasyrace.com every Tuesday to read that weekly feature).
Elliott Sadler – Sadler’s a driver who I usually don’t trust, but this week I like him. It’s difficult for me to say that.
Paul Menard – Menard’s been surprising so far this season and Talladega is the site of his best career finish (2nd).
Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin has two top fives here BUT six finishes of 21st or worse.
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Kasey Kahne – He’s finished 2nd at Talladega twice but besides that he’s never finished better than 12th.
AJ Allmendinger – AJ had a good handling car at Daytona but that won’t be required this weekend. In three Talladega races AJ has never even finished in the twenties.
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Martin Treux Jr. – Martin Treux Jr. has run here ten times and his average finish is 28.4. There’s no excuses to be that bad here.
Sam Hornish Jr. – Do you really think he’ll be able to avoid problems at Talladega?
David Reutimann – Check out what I said in my Contender Or Pretender post.
