Dover Autism Speaks 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

[picapp align=”left” wrap=”true” link=”term=dover+nascar&iid=6633088″ src=”f/f/9/f/AAA_400_38a5.jpg?adImageId=12834260&imageId=6633088″ width=”234″ height=”152″ /]

[tweetmeme source= "ifantasyrace"]

A = Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Last year Johnson swept both races at Dover. He was  dominant in every loop data statistical category fantasy racers would care about. His average running position in both races last year was 2.1 and he only raced outside the top fifteen for a grand total of 5 laps.  (Yahoo A- List)

Kyle Busch – Busch is a little bit off people’s radars this week because he’s had zero success in the last three races at Dover. When you exclude the last three Dover races Busch has 5 top fives in seven races. (Yahoo A- List)

Jeff Gordon – Gordon’s been a weekly contender almost every week this year. Even if he doesn’t win I’ll happily take a top five finish, wouldn’t you? At Dover Gordon’s finished 12th or better in seven of the last eight races. (Yahoo A-List)

Jeff Burton – 2009 was a bad, bad year for RCR and Burton finished 16th twice last year. His average finish between 2006-2008 is 6.83. In 2006 at Dover Burton snapped a long winless streak and this team is ready to snap it again. (Yahoo B-List)

Matt Kenseth – At Dover Kenseth has four consecutive top five finishes. In the last 5 years Kenseth could easily be a perfect 10 top tens in 10 races  if incidents didn’t get in the way. He had this race won in the fall 2007 race but a late engine failure ruined his day. His other non top ten finish over the last 5 years happened when Kenseth famously nailed the wall while coming to pit road. (Yahoo B-List)

A- = Really Good Pick

Kurt Busch – Last year Kurt Busch led the second most laps at Dover (99) and finished 5th twice. (Yahoo A-List)

Ryan Newman – Back in the Newman glory days this was his best track. Expect a strong showing from him Sunday. He has 3 career victories here. (Yahoo B-List).

Mark Martin – I don’t like how he’s been performing lately but Dover is a really good Mark Martin track.  His average finish over the last five years is 8th. (Yahoo A-List)

Juan Pablo Montoya – If you love stats you’ll hate Montoya. Last fall he finished 4th but before that his average finish was 24.4. Montoya is now starting to look like he did last fall and that will mean lots of trouble for the Chase bubble teams. (Yahoo A-List)

Carl Edwards – If the 99 team was performing better this year I would have no problem moving him into the A Grade group. Last year he finished 7th and 11th. (Yahoo A-List)

B+ = Good Pick

Greg Biffle – Biffle’s five year average finish at Dover is 5.5 but he’s been plagued with problems week after week. Here’s the two perspectives you’re probably using this week

A. It’s a good track for him so he’ll probably snap out of his funk.

B. Wait until he gets some good finishes on the board before I pick him.

I’m choosing B. (Yahoo A-List)

Kevin Harvick – The points leader has been good almost every week this year.  His record isn’t great at Dover but as you’ve learned this year you can’t count him out anywhere. (Yahoo B-List)

Tony Stewart – Much of Tony Stewart’s success at Dover is what I would deem as “old success”. He really hasn’t been that good at Dover recently. Last year he finished 2nd and 9th. His 2nd was based on track position at the end of the race (10.5 avg running position), not how he ran. His average finish over the last five years is 20.3. (Yahoo A-List)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Clint Bowyer – In eight races Bowyer’s best finish at Dover is 8th which has happened on three occasions. Those are his only top tens at Dover. (Yahoo B-List)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray’s been really good lately and I think his momentum will carry over to Dover. In many of his races at Dover he’s run much better then he’s finished. (Yahoo B-List)

Martin Treux Jr. – Treux won the first COT race at Dover but hasn’t finished better than 20th in the last three races. (Yahoo B-List)

Denny Hamlin – Dover has never been a good track for Denny Hamlin. All of his good finishes are heavily stacked early in his career.The last time Hamlin finished in the top twenty was back in 2007. Last falls race when he finished 22nd snapped his streak of four consecutive finishes outside the top 35.The best race in Hamlin’s  career at Dover was the fall 2007 race.  It was a good race for him from a competitive standpoint and it created a very memorable YouTube moment. (Yahoo A-List)

David Reutimann – This team is really starting to come to life. In the spring race last year Reutimann won the pole and led 25 laps. (Yahoo B-List)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – In the last ten races at Dover Earnhardt Jr. has 1 top five and two top tens. This race marks the one year anniversary of Lance McGrew as crew chief for the 88. (Yahoo B-List)

Kasey Kahne – Last year he finished in the top ten both races. I’ve learned my personal lesson about using Kahne at Dover so I’m not going to pick him. His average finish between 2005 through 2008 is 24.5. (Yahoo B-List)

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has never raced at Dover but I would buy some stock in him this week because of his 12th place finish at Darlington. (Yahoo B-List)

Marcos Amborse – Marcos has raced at Dover three times and each race he gets a little better. Last fall he finished 14th. (Yahoo B-List)

AJ Allmendinger – No brakes won’t work good here either. Last fall he finished 7th but overall his average finish is 27.5. (Yahoo C-List)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Paul Menard – Menards’s pretty consistent at Dover. In four out of his five career races he’s finished within the 19th through 22nd range. (Yahoo C-List)

Joey Logano –  The main concern here is that Logano has been faltering lately. His average finish over the last three races is 26.3. (Yahoo B-List)

Sam Hornish Jr. – If you’re a Hornish fan then you’ll be happy to hear he always finishes better in the spring then he does in the fall. His average spring finish is 15.5 and his average fall finish is 34th. (Yahoo C-List)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

David Ragan – In seven races at Dover Ragan has never finished better than 14th. Last year he finished 24th in both races. (Yahoo B-List)

Elliott Sadler – His last top ten at Dover was back in 2005. His average finish from 2006 through 2009 is 28.1. (Yahoo B-List)

E = You pick him your not paying attention

Brian Vickers – Not Racing this weekend. He will be replaced by Casey Mears at Dover.  Here’s a link to the story. (Yahoo B-List)

____________________________

My Dover Pick : Kyle Busch

Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Jimmie Johnson

Top Onpitrow.com Dark Horse Pick : Coming Soon