Michigan Heluva Good 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A = Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson didn’t finish in the top twenty in either Michigan race last year but that single finishing number doesn’t tell the story of the races. Johnson led nearly 70% of the laps at Michigan last year. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kurt Busch – Busch has been strong all season long on intermediate tracks. I expect nothing to be different Sunday for the two time Michigan winner. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Last year in both Michigan and California races Jeff Gordon finished second. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – Kyle’s Michigan history isn’t the best but he’s been so strong lately there’s no reason to bet against him. Kyle Busch has 8 straight top tens heading into the race. (Yahoo A Driver)
Matt Kenseth – Check out what I said about him in my Michigan Contender or Pretender post. (Yahoo B Driver)
A- = Really Good Pick
Carl Edwards – No driver has been better than Carl Edwards at Michigan in the COT era. Only once in his entire career has Carl Edwards failed to finish outside the top ten at Michigan. Last year he finished 4th in both races. (Yahoo A Driver)
Mark Martin – Martin is the defending champion of this very race but he’s only finished in the top ten twice in the last six Michigan races. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – His average finish on other high speed intermediate tracks besides Texas in 2010 is 21.75. There could be a real risk here this week. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – Harvick potentially had the best car at California earlier this year and it appears right now there’s nothing Harvick can’t do. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – Burton has limited success at Michigan but just like Kevin Harvick I wouldn’t count out Burton for anything right right now. If he avoids trouble I think he could be a lock for a top 5 based on his recent performances. (Yahoo B Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
Greg Biffle – Biffle was Johnson’s biggest challenger last spring but he also succumbed to fuel issues on the last lap. His Michigan average finish position is 13.1. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – In the last three spring Michigan races Stewart has finished 3rd, 5th, and 7th. If the pattern holds expect Stewart to finish 9th. That sounds about right performance wise to me. (Yahoo A Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – He’ll run strong at Michigan but the question is can he really avoid trouble. Performance wise he could easily be a top ten car. (Yahoo A Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s been picking up his consistency again and last year he finished 8th and 10th. My Michigan gripe about him is that those are his only two top tens at MIS. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – If you’re a fan of McMurray and a fan of patterns then you’ll be happy to know that he’s finished second in every other race dating back to Talladega. Pocono was his off week so if this pattern holds true McMurray should finish second this weekend. McMurray has finished in the top 11 in three out of the last 4 Michigan races. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Did you know that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the second best Michigan average finish over the last five years? It’s true. Michigan is also the site of his last win. What’s also true is that you shouldn’t put your fantasy hopes in Earnhardt Jr. this weekend. His third place finish in the second Michigan race last year was highly influenced by being a guy who runs toward the back of the pack who could take gambles. I expect him to be a mid teens driver at best. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Reutimann finished 9th last summer and if you need a sleeper I really think he should be your pick this week. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne is an elite intermediate track driver when things are going his way. At Michigan throughout his career Kasey Kahne has either been a “Hero or a Zero”. He has 5 top fives, and 6 finishes outside the top 18. His only other finish outside these parameters is a 11th place finish. So as I said he’s either a Hero or a Zero. With the way his luck is I’m leaning towards a zero this weekend. (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano – Logano finished 7th here in the summer race in 2009. He’s starting to become more of a consistent top ten threat every week. (Yahoo B Driver)
Martin Treux Jr. – Treux has finished 2nd twice at Michigan in his career but besides that things have been pretty ugly for him here. I would probably say he’ll finish in the low teens. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Ryan Newman – Newman’s won twice at Michigan but since then (2003) he hasn’t finished in the top ten. I say avoid Newman at all costs this weekend. (Yahoo B Driver)
Paul Menard – In two out of the last three spring Michigan races Menard has finished just outside the top ten (11th and 12th). But when you take away the sugar coating his average finish here is 24.3. (Yahoo C Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Brad Keselowski – Last summer he finished 24th here. Brad Keselowski is the highest driver in the point standings (24th) who doesn’t have a top ten finish this season. (Yahoo B Driver)
Sam Hornish Jr. – Hornish is the second highest driver in the point standings without a top ten this season (27th). Last year he finished 5th in the summer race but can you say fuel mileage? (Yahoo C Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger’s been pretty good for the last month but he’s really stunk it up at Michigan and has a 27.8 average finish at MIS. (Yahoo C Driver)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Casey Mears – Mears is piloting a car that won the summer race and finished in the top ten five consecutive races at Michigan. I don’t think Mears ever feels pressure to perform so why should he start now? (Yahoo C Driver)
David Ragan – Roush really hasn’t been that good this year and Ragan will be Roush’s most uncompetitive car Sunday. When you take out his breakout 2008 season his average finish is 21st. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – I see no reason for optimism here. He has zero top thirty finishes here and has an average finish of 31.75 over the last four races in 2010. (Yahoo B Driver)
Elliott Sadler – In the last four Michigan races Sadler’s finished 12th or better in 3 out of the last 4 races (COT era), but don’t be fooled this weekend. Do not pick Sadler. (Yahoo B Driver)
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Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Picks
My Pick : Jimmie Johnson
Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : coming soon
Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : coming soon
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