Michigan Carfax 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A= Really, Really Good Pick
Carl Edwards – Edwards has scored the most points over the last six races, he’s only finished outside the top ten twice at Michigan, and he has the best average finish. I’m sure I’m not the only one seeing the stars align for this two-time Michigan Sunday in the Carfax 400. (Yahoo A Driver)
Greg Biffle – In the COT era Greg Biffle has the fourth best average finish (9.4). Horsepower is important at Michigan and his Pocono win proves he’s got plenty of power under his hood. If you’re wondering why Roush is doing so good right now you can point to two things. 1) Their new engine and 2) they fixed the problems with their race simulation software. Apparently their software issue is a carry over from their merger with RPM (This part is a joke). (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – In two out of the last three Michigan races Gordon’s finished 2nd, 2nd, and 4th. In the most recent similar intermediate track race (Chicagoland) Gordon finished 3rd. (Yahoo A Driver)
A- = Really Good Pick
Kurt Busch – The June pole sitter has finished 36th the last two August races. In 2007 he won this race. This team is resilient so I would feel very comfortable picking him. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – The most recent Michigan winner has a very good overall record at the two mile track. In the COT era Hamlin has a 10.6 (5th best) average running position and an 99.5 driver rating (5th best). (Yahoo A Driver)
Jimmie Johnson – His numbers at Michigan have been really good recently, just not his finishes. Kinda reminds me of something I’ve been seeing out of the 48 team lately. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Burton – Burton’s recent record at Michigan isn’t spectacular but lately we’ve seen lots of first time winners for the season visiting victory lane. Burton’s won a couple of races this year, he just didn’t cross the finish line first. (Yahoo B Driver)
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B+ = Good Pick
Tony Stewart – Statistically speaking Tony Stewart has a 10.0 average finish over the last 11 Michigan races and he has the ninth best average running position over this time period (13.299). (Yahoo A Driver)
Kasey Kahne – If you need to pick a driver who’s down in the points take Kasey Kahne. He finished 2nd in June and he knows how to win at Michigan. (Yahoo B Driver)
Matt Kenseth – For whatever reason Matt Kenseth hasn’t shown the flashes of brilliance that his other Roush teammates have shown in recent weeks. This two-time Michigan winners COT average finish is 10.4. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – This team runs good nearly every week and I expect Michigan to be no exception. His overall record isn’t good at Michigan but I would pick him before I picked many other drivers. Stats in a lot of ways aren’t that meaningful fantasy NASCAR wise with Montoya because he had “lost unmeaningful seasons” prior to 2009 at EGR. (Yahoo A Driver)
Mark Martin – The June 2009 winner has had a lot more tough at luck at Michigan than you’d think. They need to run good so expect this team to race their hardest this week. (Yahoo A Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Kyle Busch – I would proceed with caution when it comes to picking this Busch. He wasn’t all that great when the series visited this track earlier in the year (20th place finish), and he looked lost at Chicagoland. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – Basically what I said about Kyle Busch applies to Kevin Harvick. Their performances are almost parallel to each other this year at Michigan and Chicagoland. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – McMurray knows how to get the job done at MIS. He’s finished in the top eleven in three out of the last five races. The only concern is that his two most recent finishes were 24th or worse. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Reutimann won at Chicagoland which is similar to Michigan but I think he’ll finish in the teens in the Carfax 400. Last year in this race he finished 9th and earlier this year he finished 18th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer has had bad luck in recent weeks on the track and the last time the series visited this venue he also had bad luck and finished 22nd. In nine starts at MIS Clint Bowyer has only finished in the top ten twice. (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano – In three starts at Michigan Logano has finished in the top ten twice. His recent performances and lack of momentum sour him for me. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Martin Treux Jr. – Treux finished second twice at Michigan in 2007 but since then he hasn’t cracked the top fifteen. (Yahoo B Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Michigan is a very good track for Earnhardt Jr. It’s also the site of his last win. Junior likes to run the high line around tracks and it works out great for him at Michigan. However, I don’t think this team is poised for good things to happen this week. (Yahoo B Driver)
Ryan Newman – Check out what I said about Ryan Newman in my Michigan Contender or Pretender post. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
AJ Allmendinger – Earlier this year at MIS Allmendinger finished 11th but all of his other finishes are 19th or worse. (Yahoo C Driver)
Paul Menard – Menard hasn’t finished better than 24th in the last four Michigan races. One notable thing about Paul Menard is that he finished 10th recently at Chicagoland. (Yahoo C Driver)
Brad Keselowski – He’s raced here twice and both times he finished in the mid twenties. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Ragan – Ragan hasn’t shown anything this year on the track. In 2008 (his good year) he finished 8th and 3rd at Michigan. Hopefully his Roush teammates might rub off on him this weekend.
Macros Ambrose – Big intermediate tracks just aren’t his thing. His MIS average finish is 31st. (Yahoo B Driver)
C =I’m Not Picking Them
Sam Hornish Jr. – Hornish finished 5th last year but that was due to strategy. All of his other finishes are 22nd or worse. (Yahoo C Driver)
Elliott Sadler – Sadler hasn’t finished in the top ten once this season so why should it start now? In 2008 Elliott Sadler finished 9th twice but in fantasy racing you need to go by what’s happened recently. (Yahoo B Driver)
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Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Picks
My Pick : Carl Edwards
Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Carl Edwards
Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : Kasey Kahne
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