AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Kevin Harvick – Look for the AAA Texas 500 to be won by one of the championship big three. Harvick is a clutch performer and Texas has traditionally been one of his best intermediate tracks. His new pit crew is among the best in the series and Harvick can drive through traffic with ease. (Yahoo B)

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie was the runner-up in April and he’s finished either first or second in four out of the last six Texas races. When you exclude his crash last fall his average finish since the fall 2007 race is 4.4. (Yahoo A)

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin won this race earlier in the year and he’s been exceptionally strong throughout 2010 on this style of track. Hamlin has seven top tens in ten starts at Texas. His 9.6 average finish is the best among the chasers. (Yahoo A)

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has been extremely strong on recent similar tracks. He finished 2nd at Charlotte and 5th at Atlanta. Last year Kyle Busch had this race won but lost when it came down to fuel mileage (led 232 laps). (Yahoo A)

Who will win at Texas? VOTE

A- = Really Good Pick

Jeff Gordon – Gordon was very competitive at Texas in April but got collected in the Texas “Big One” (YouTube Video). Gordon’s most recent victory was at Texas. (Yahoo A)

Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three-time Texas winner who’s come very close to victory lane on intermediate tracks in 2010. He also got collected in the “Texas Big One” in April. (Yahoo A)

Tony Stewart – Another “Texas Big One” victim here. Before April’s race Stewart had three straight top seven finishes at Texas. Stewart won at Atlanta in September which is very similar to Texas. (Yahoo A)

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth finished 20th earlier this year at Texas but before that he had a streak of six straight top tens. Don’t worry about his 20th place finish too much because he recently finished 6th at Lowes and 11th at Atlanta. Also I believe his 20th place finish was motor related. (Yahoo B)

B+ = Good Pick

Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton has been fast almost everywhere this year but something always happens. Earlier this year at Texas Burton might of had the best car but he had one of his incidences again ( I believe he brushed against the wall and damaged his car). Here’s his Yahoo race chart for the April race. (Yahoo B)

Greg Biffle – The 16 team has really struggled in the Chase but Biffle won at Kansas and finished 5th at Charlotte. (Yahoo A)

Kurt Busch – Busch is the defending champion and he’s finished in the top ten in two-thirds of his races at Texas. (Yahoo A)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray won at Charlotte and he’s also been close to the checkered flag at Texas. McMurry has the sixth best driver rating in the last three cookie cutter races (Texas, Charlotte and Atlanta). (Yahoo B)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Clint Bowyer – I would say Bowyer falls somewhere between the 7th and 15th place finish range at Texas. It’s good, but I consider it a tier below the top drivers to watch. (Yahoo B)

Mark Martin – Martin has four straight top tens at Texas but hold onto your horses. Although we’ve seen improvement from this team in recent weeks his 14th at Charlotte and 21st at Atlanta say pass again. (Yahoo A)

David Reutimann – If you need a sleeper pick consider Reutimann. In the last five Texas races he has an average start of 9.6 and an average running position of 12th. (Yahoo B)

Martin Treux Jr. – Treux has had some good runs in the past at Texas Motor Speedway. His career average finish is a respectable 13.9. (Yahoo B)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Joey Logano – Joey Logano now has three top tens in a row for the first time in his career. I don’t see number four in the mix for him this weekend. His finishes at Texas are 28th, 19th, 30th, and 40th. (Yahoo B)

Ryan Newman – Newman has four straight top fifteen finishes at Texas. This team has become problem prone in recent weeks and he’s finished 23rd or worse the last three. (Yahoo B)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya has been strong on tracks like Texas and Atlanta for a while now. He was a another victim of the “Texas Big One” earlier in the year. Montoya is a high risk pick this week because in seven Texas races he only has two top ten finishes. (Yahoo A)

Paul Menard – Menard has never finished better than 13th at Texas but many of his best runs this season have come on intermediate tracks. Recently Menard finished 8th at Kansas. (Yahoo C)

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C+ = Proceed With Caution

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior finished 8th in April but that’s his only top ten at Texas since 2006. Like I said in my Contender or Pretender post this team is ready for the golf course. (Yahoo B)

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has three top fives at Texas including a win back in 2006. Those are his only top tens in twelve races at Texas. Earlier this year he finished 5th but the problem will be he’s never been with this team on an intermediate track before. Kahne and Vickers seem like they have similar driving styles on intermediates, but I guess we’ll find out Sunday. In fantasy racing you should fear the unknown and stay away from Kahne this week. (Yahoo B)

AJ Allmendinger – AJ had a hot streak going but he’s faltered some lately. How well will the RPM cars be prepared this weekend? I don’t know so get your popcorn ready. (Yahoo C)

David Ragan – There’s a sleeper quality to Ragan that is noteworthy this week. He’s never cracked the top ten at Texas but he’s finished just outside of it a couple of times. At Charlotte Ragan finished 10th in one of his two top tens of the year. (Yahoo B)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Marcos Ambrose – He’s never finished better than 15th at Texas and if you’ve checked out ifantasyrace.com this year then you’ll know I don’t like picking him on intermediate tracks. (Yahoo B)

Brad Keselowski – Brad now has two top tens in a row, but I’m not picking him. Here’s his loop data aggregated from Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte for the year.

Avg Start = 32.2, Avg Running Position = 23.2, Avg Finish = 24.4, Percentage of laps inside the top fifteen = 11.7. (Yahoo B)

Elliott Sadler – Sadler won at Texas in 2004 but in 2010 he’s stunk it up on intermediate tracks like Texas. His average finish in the five races just like Texas this year is 25th. (Yahoo B)

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AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Picks

My Pick : Kevin Harvick

Top Onpitrow.com Expert Pick : Denny Hamlin

Top Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Pick : Mark Martin