Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Daytona 500 (Post Happy Hour)

Let’s Go Racin’, Boys!

Kurt Busch is 2-for-2 this weekend. The elder Busch brother took the win in the Budweiser Shootout, and followed that win up with a win in his Gatorade Duel race. The results of the Bud Shootout can be found by clicking here. In case you missed the Gatorade Duel races on Thursday, click here for the results. Qualifying was held last Sunday, with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. claiming the pole and Jeff Gordon starting 2nd. The 88 car will have to start from the back, though, because they wrecked in practice and had to go to a back-up car. The Gatorade Duel races set the starting order for the rest of the field, and the entire starting lineup for the Daytona 500 can be found by clicking here. Where they start here doesn’t matter, but if it makes you feel better, then go ahead and take it into account.

Top Fifteen For The Daytona 500:

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$29.72 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change.
It’s hard to go against “Happy” when it comes to restrictor plate tracks–or any RCR driver for that matter. The entire Childress stable looks to have great power and should have a chance at the win by the end. Harvick was stellar at Daytona in 2010, recording finishes of 7th and 1st. He’s had five top fifteens in the past six races held here, too. The 29 car didn’t practice much on Friday and Saturday, probably because they know they have a good car and don’t want to take a chance wrecking it.

2. Clint Bowyer – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$28.12 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change.
In the past ten restrictor plate races, nobody has been better than Bowyer. He has an average finish of 12.7 in those races, even better than his teammate, Kevin Harvick. Bowyer won in Talladega last October and has finished 4th in the past two Daytona 500’s. Can this be the year Clint gets the win? He has the horsepower, that’s for sure, and he’s one of the best at these tracks. If he stays out of trouble (and he should), look for the #33 Chevy to be looking for the win at the end of this race. Bowyer has never had a DNF at Daytona.

3. Kurt Busch – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$27.94 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +1 spot.
Did you see Brad Keselowski pushing his brother (unsponsored Brian) to a top five in the second Gatorade Duel race? Yeah, that’s Kurt’s teammate. The “Double Deuce” is perfect in Speedweeks thus far, winning the Bud Shootout and then the first Gatorade Duel race. The elder Busch brother typically does better in the summer race at Daytona, but don’t let that fool you: he has two 2nd-place finishes in “The Great American Race” in his career.

4. Matt Kenseth – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.46 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -1 spot.
In the garage, everyone is talking about the Fords in this race. The new FR9 engines have been able to keep temperatures lower than the other manufacturers, allowing the cars to push longer in the two-car drafts. The Roush camp (as well as other Fords) should be everyone’s best friend come race day because of this. Kenseth has finished out of the top fifteen only once in his last five starts at Daytona and has been the best here over the past two years. He also has the 6th-best average finish at restrictor plate tracks in the last ten races (at 14.6)

5. Jeff Burton – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$27.76 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +6 spots.
Yes, he made a huge jump in my rankings, but for good reason: he has a very fast car. He led both practice sessions he took place in, being pushed by teammate Paul Menard in first practice and tied with teammate Clint Bowyer in Happy Hour. Jeff won his Gatorade Duel race being pushed by Bowyer as well. If RCR teammates can get hooked up towards the end of the race, the rest of the field better watch out. The last time Burton had a top five in a Gatorade Duel race, he went on to finish 3rd in the Daytona 500 (2007). He has 23 top 20s in 34 starts at Daytona.

6. Carl Edwards – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.50 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -1 spot.
When asked about how good his car was on a scale of one to ten, Edwards responded “8 or 9” and they all they needed to do was “tweak a few small things”. His practice speeds were all pretty low because he spent most of his time on the track alone, practicing getting onto pit road and seeing just how terrible these cars are without a partner. Edwards runs a Ford, which I’m pretty high on this week, and has finished every lap at Daytona (points-paying races) since 2007. He has been better in the summer race here in recent years, but he did pick up a top ten in the Daytona 500 last year.

7. Jeff Gordon – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.43 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change.
Gordon and Trevor Bayne were looking great in their Duel race until the end. Neither had to go to a backup car, but both were pretty heavily damaged. Gordon didn’t even practice during Happy Hour because his team was working on the car. I liked what I saw Thursday, but the only thing that would keep me from picking the 24 would be the wreck. Will his car be the same? Bayne’s car didn’t look as fast during practice, that’s for sure. In the last three years at Daytona, Gordon has just one top ten and four finishes of 26th or worse. Be careful when picking him this week.

8. Tony Stewart – Starts 25th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.28 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -2 spots.
“Smoke” looked good in his Duel race up until the point that he spun his drafting buddy (and teammate) Ryan Newman. I didn’t think he looked too great after that, but because it was a non-paying points race, he may have been laying low to get a starting spot close to Newman (he starts two rows behind him). Stewart has nine top tens in his last twelve starts at Daytona, and as unpredictable as restrictor plate tracks are, I wouldn’t look too much at last year’s sub-par finishes.

9. Juan Montoya – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$18.71 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: +3 spots.
Do you know who has the 8th-most points in the past ten restrictor plate tracks? Mr. Montoya. He also has three top fifteens in his past four races at Daytona and has completed all of the laps in every Daytona 500 he has entered. The 42 car has a Earnhardt-Childress engine powering it, so you know Juan can get to the front, but will he have the patience? His teammate could teach him a thing or two about Daytona.

10. Jamie McMurray – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$19.40 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change.
You may disagree, but I’m still not sold on Jamie Mac this week. His practice speeds were good, and he starts at a decent spot, but I just have a hunch about him. He won the Daytona 500 last year, but will he be able to repeat 2010? It was far and away one of his best seasons (if not his best) in the Sprint Cup series. McMurray’s finishes at Daytona worry me, though. He has finished in the top eleven five times, but his other eleven races here have yielded finishes of 26th or worse. As with anybody this week, exercise caution when picking the 1 car.

11. Mark Martin – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$19.48 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -3 spots.
Martin has looked average to me all of speed weeks, but his practice numbers were good (not that they matter here). He finished 12th here in the Daytona 500 last year and finished in the top twelve in three of the four restrictor plate track races. You know he will have a powerful engine, but his old age might be catching up with him, telling him not to take some of the risks he has here before.

12. Kyle Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group/$28.39 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: -3 spots.
Rowdy runs great races here, but all that counts is where you finish, and for him, it hasn’t been good. Since he won the July race at Daytona in 2008, Busch hasn’t been able to finish better than 14th here, and has two 40th-range finishes in that time span. During practice, one of the announcers said, “it seems like Kyle is just working real hard trying to find speed in his car”. The Gibbs stable hasn’t been great this week at Daytona (nor have they in the past few years). Busch will either get you a top five or a “deep in the field” finish.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$17.79 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: no change.
I didn’t want to rank him at all, but with how “storybook” this weekend has been so far, as well as the fact that it is Earnhardt Jr., I figured I had to. His new crew chief, Steve Letarte, says they have fixed the car to give it the speed Junior desired and it can now cool better. Little E has history on his side, though, and seems to always perform well when the races have something to do with his father’s death. 

14. Paul Menard – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group/$17.05 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked.
The final RCR member will round out my top fourteen this week. He has the horsepower to charge through the field, and while he hasn’t been great at Daytona, he hasn’t been terrible either. He finished 13th in last year’s “Great American Race” and followed that up with an 18th place finish in the July race. Menard has raced at Daytona seven times and has finished worse than 23rd just once.

15. David Ragan – Starts 34th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group/$16.16 NASCAR.com game
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked.
When Ragan has a bad Duel race, he seems to overcome it with a solid finish in the race that counts. He finished 23rd in his duel race in 2009, and went on to finish 6th in “The Great American Race”. In 2007, those finishes were 28th and 5th, respectfully. Ragan has raced in four Daytona 500’s, capturing finishes of: 16th, 6th, 42nd, and 5th. I like the Fords this week and Ragan has the fifth most points earned in the past ten restrictor plate tracks.

“Surprise” Picks For The Daytona 500:

Michael Waltrip – He’s starting 8th, and did you see his move in the Truck Series race? Mikey still knows how to race Daytona. I don’t think he will challenge for the win, but Waltrip would be a great pick in Yahoo and allocation leagues. He finished 18th in last year’s Daytona 500 and 7th in 2009’s “Great American Race”.

Robby Gordon – Call me crazy, but I honestly think Robby could be a sleeper pick for a top ten this week. Since driving for Robby Gordon Motorsports in 2005, he has amassed seven top fifteens in ten races at Daytona. Seriously. In eight of the last ten restrictor plate races, he has been running at the finish. And in those same ten races (at Dayton and Talladega), he has amassed more points than drivers such as Jamie McMurray, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, and Ryan Newman. He was 4th in Happy Hour.

Trevor Bayne – This kid looked great in the Duels, and was a sure pick of mine going into the final lap. And then he wrecked. They didn’t have to go to a backup car, but his Ford didn’t look as speedy when he finally got back on the track. If he has the chance to push someone during a race, do you think anyone will say no after watching him and Jeff Gordon work together? Didn’t think so.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The Daytona 500:

Joey Logano – If he wants to have a breakout year, a good finish at Daytona will definitely get it started in the right direction, but it is too risky for me to recommend him. He wrecked in the Bud Shootout and his Duel race, and his best finish here has been 19th. I’m not a big fan of the Gibbs cars this week, and Logano is the worst in the bunch.

Regan Smith – Yes, I know he almost won his Duel race, and I know he has an Earnhardt-Childress engine. But he looked good in his Duel race last year, too, finishing 5th. He went on to record a 39th-place effort in the 500 later that week. He may be picked by some people this week, but don’t fall for Smith’s hype until he can prove he can finish a race.

Ryan Newman – His best finish at Daytona since joining Stewart-Haas Racing has been 20th, and Scott Speed has earned more points than him (in two less starts) in the last ten restrictor plate races. Newman hasn’t been the same driver here since his Daytona 500 win, and he really wasn’t that stellar before that win at this track.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Clint Bowyer, Darkhorse – Juan Montoya
Yahoo!: A-List: Matt Kenseth, B-List: Juan Montoya, Clint Bowyer, C-List: Michael Waltrip
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Juan Montoya, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Brian Vickers
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, Juan Montoya