Las Vegas Kobalt Tools 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – If you’re in Vegas don’t bet against Jimmie Johnson. He’s the defending champion and he’s won four out of the last six races at Las Vegas. His driver rating last year was 130.2. Last year he stalked Jeff Gordon until the end and made the pass when it counted. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Gordon is the next best thing at Las Vegas following Jimmie Johnson. Since 2005 he’s finished in the top six in every race except for 2008 when he was involved in a huge crash. Last year Jeff Gordon led 219 laps and recorded a 144.2 driver rating (150 is perfect). (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – The last time the series visited an intermediate track Carl Edwards smoked the competition. Edwards was also the first winner at Las Vegas in the COT. Look for him to show you exactly why I gave him an “A” for his intermediate track grade. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – Looking for a good pick? If so take a look at Kenseth. When you take away his 2009 result (Engine) and his 2008 result (Led 70 laps but had to nurse his engine to the finish line, check out his Yahoo race chart) he’s finished 8th or better every year and has two wins since 2003 (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Busch has finished 15th or better in every start except his first. He’s the 2009 winner and if qualifying matters to you Kyle Busch is a “must”. In the last three years he has two poles and a fifth place start. (Yahoo A Driver)

A- = Really Good Pick

Kevin Harvick – Last year Harvick finished second to Jimmie Johnson at Vegas. In 2008 he finished 4th. In last years Chase Harvick had a 4.0 average finish on high-speed intermediate tracks (Excludes Dover). (Yahoo A Driver)

Greg Biffle – With five top tens in the last six starts it’s hard to go wrong here. His driver rating in every top ten finish was better than 103.6. Biffle’s also an excellent qualifier at Vegas. His average starting position is 9.7 (Yahoo A Driver)

Mark Martin – I’m not betting against this crazy old man. Mark Martin has four top tens in the last five years. The only reason why he’s not five for five is because his engine blew up in 2009. His career average finish is 12.7 and he’s the inaugral winner of this event. (Yahoo B Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin finished in the top ten in his first three races at Vegas but since then he’s finished 19th and 22nd. Hamlin’s also a poor qualifier and has never started inside the top fifteen. (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s career got off to a rocky start at Vegas because he finished 15th or lower in his first three races. Since then he’s finished 8th and 2nd. Take note that his driver ratings really weren’t that good when he finished well (89.4 & 84.8). (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Burton – Burton is a two time winner who’s been very good at Las Vegas throughout his career. In the last five races he’s finished 15th or better and has finished in the top seven three times in that span. My concern here is how poorly he finished the season on this track type last season. (Yahoo B Driver)

Joey Logano – Last year Logano finished 6th and had a 94.0 driver rating. Logano’s average finish at Vegas is 9.5 which is statistically his second best track. Currently his best track is Charlotte. Look for Logano to be strong at Vegas. (Yahoo B Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Tony Stewart – Las Vegas certainly hasn’t been his best track. In the last five Vegas races he’s finished 7th twice and in his other three he’s finished outside the top twenty. Do you really want to roll the dice here to test your luck? (Yahoo A Driver)

Kasey Kahne – Did you know that Kasey Kahne’s finished in the top ten in half his races at Las Vegas, but only in every other race. Last year he had a top ten so hold your breath. If qualifying matters in your fantasy league remember who won the pole at Homestead last year in his Red Bull car. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – If you need a sleeper at Las Vegas Reutimann might be your guy. Outside of his initial showing he’s finished 4th and 13th. Last year Reutimann had success at this style of track when he took the checkered flag at Chicagoland. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray has mixed results at Vegas.  When you take away his first race at Vegas (rookie year) and last years result (crashed) then his average finish is a respectable 14.3. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Kurt Busch – Homefield advantage certainly hasn’t helped him any. He’s never started outside the top ten but yet he’s only finished there twice. He hasn’t cracked the top ten since 2005. (Yahoo A Driver)

Ryan Newman – If your league rewards qualifying points consider Newman. He’s started sixth or better at Vegas six times. His finishes in the last three years have been 18th, 24th, and 14th. In ten races at Vegas he’s got four top tens. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers has plenty of upside at Las Vegas but statistically it’s really all downside. Since 2004 he’s finished 8th once but all of his other finishes are 22nd or worse. I don’t like those odds. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – In Ragan’s good year he finished 8th at Vegas. Last year in the Chase he finished in the top ten at both Texas and Charlotte so keep your eye’s on him. He could be a fantasy difference maker at Vegas. (Yahoo C Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Las Vegas is one of those tracks where I would be trembling with fear if I picked Junior. He’s had races so bad here that they’ve turned into test sessions. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished 16th or better in the last four years so don’t expect the worst this time. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – I really like Montoya but not enough to pick him this weekend. Last year McMurray crashed him out but in his four races he’s finished 19th or worse. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Martin Truex Jr. – Las Vegas really isn’t a good track for Truex. He’s done a good job avoiding problems so his numbers aren’t DNF skewed. His 19.8 average finish is an accurate representative of what you should expect. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – His results really stink at Vegas. In the two he’s started his results were both 25th or worse. I probably have him way underrated here but I’m not picking him. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – This will be his first run in a RPM car at an intermediate track. Things could go smoothly but you never know. His career average running position at this track is 24.6. In his two starts he’s finished 14th and 20th. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Paul Menard – Sure he’s in perceived better equipment this year but does RCR have good 4th car stuff? I don’t know. He had a good finish at Phoenix but how much of that was by default. Menard has never finished inside the top fifteen at Vegas. (Yahoo C Driver)

Brad Keselowski – He’s actually beaten Allmendinger numbers at Vegas. In his two races he’s finished 26th or worse twice. (Yahoo B Driver)

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My Pick : Carl Edwards

Top Onpitrow.com Expert Picks: Kyle Busch