Jeff Byrd 500 Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
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A= Really, Really Good Pick
Kurt Busch – Kurt was off his game for a few years in the mid 2000’s but now he’s back and hasn’t finished lower than ninth in the last three Bristol races. Last year he finished 3rd to Jimmie Johnson but in my opinion he actually had the better car. He just got the short end of the straw by starting in the wrong line on a late restart. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – Since the COT came into existence Kyle Busch has been the driver to beat. Since 2007 he’s won 4 races and has an average finish of 5.125. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is the best Bristol driver who’s never won there. Last year was a down year for him but he’s been in contention in nearly every COT race. Before 2010 Hamiln had four straight finishes of sixth or better. (Yahoo A Driver)
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a two time winner who has three straight top tens at Bristol. Since 2002 he has fourteen top tens. Don’t ever discount consistency at a track like this. (Yahoo A Driver)
A- = Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – Bristol once was one of those “Jimmie Johnson proofer tracks”. People thought he couldn’t win here. I guess they need to rethink their logic. In the last four Bristol races he’s led at least 84 laps a race and has three finishes of 8th or better. He was strong last fall but was involved in an accident. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – Last year I picked Harvick in both Bristol races and he finished 11th and 14th. In 2008 he finished 4th and 2nd. Harvick won this race in 2005 and he has four second place finishes to his name. (Yahoo A Driver)
Greg Biffle – Biffle’s a good driver who’s never won at Bristol. In sixteen races at “Thunder Valley” he’s only finished outside the top 12 three times. His average finish is 10.8. (Yahoo A Driver)
Ryan Newman – Newman has been a steady driver at Bristol for quite some time. Since 2003 he has ten top tens and has only finished lower than 16th four times. He’s truly a “Driver Survivor” at Bristol. (Yahoo B Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Last summer Bowyer finished 4th at Bristol. In 2007 & 2008 Bowyer never finished lower than eighth. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – Burton’s a great spring Bristol driver. He won the 2008 spring race and would’ve won the 2007 race if he wasn’t so nice. His four year average in the spring race is 5.25. (Yahoo B Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
Carl Edwards – Edwards has two wins at Bristol but take note because both of those came in the summer night race. Historically he’s almost always finished better in the night race. Trends do matter in fantasy racing. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Gordon’s a hit or miss driver at Bristol. When he hits expect a top five but when he misses expect a teens finish. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – Stewart finished second last year but Bristol is not a track you want to pick him, especially if you’re in an allocation league. In three out of the last four Bristol races he’s finished outside the top fifteen. (Yahoo A Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior has a very good overall record at Bristol. I think he’ll be a fairly safe driver to pick this weekend. In his slump since mid 2008 he hasn’t finished lower than 18th. Between 2002 and the first Bristol race of 2008 Earnhardt Jr. only finished lower than 11th once and had an average finish of 6.7. That’s pretty good. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya has the aggressiveness I like at Bristol but he’s a high risk driver. Last summer he finished 7th and took out Jimmie Johnson in an racing ordeal. (Yahoo B Driver)
Mark Martin – In 2009 Martin finished second and sixth. He would’ve won the night race but he’s just to nice. His driver rating in that race was 139.6 and he led 240 laps that night. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s had better results at Bristol since it was reconfigured but the hit or miss ratio is way to high. His ratio of top sevens to 25th or lower finishes since the reconfiguration is nearly 50/50. This isn’t Las Vegas but I still don’t like those odds. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Sleeper Alert, Sleeper Alert. Ambrose has two top tens in four races at Bristol. In 2009 he finished 3rd and 10th. His average driver rating that year was 108.2. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Qualifying matter to you? In the last five races at Bristol he’s started in the top ten four times. The last time he raced here he finished second. Reutimann only has one other top fifteen finish to his name. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Jamie McMurray – McMurray finished 3rd and 8th last year but to find his next top you need to go back to 2007. To find his next top ten since 2007 you need to back to 2004. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Last year Brad finished 13th and 19th. That’s pretty good for him when you look at the rest of his Penske finishes. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Proceed With Caution
AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has never finished in the top fifteen at Bristol but I think there’s potential he might accomplish the feat this time around based on how well he’s run this year. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brian Vickers – Vickers has never cracked the top ten at Bristol. His average finish is 23.9 and his average starting position is 22.7. He’s only led 1 lap at Bristol in his entire career. (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano -Bristol is perhaps his worst track statistically so why use him? I mean really? His average finish is 29.25. He’s a good qualifier and started first and third last year. (Yahoo B Driver)
C = I’m Not Picking Them
Martin Truex Jr. – No top tens here either. Martin Truex Jr. is good at finding trouble and I bet he’ll find it again. His numbers are nearly identical to Vickers except he’s never led a lap at Bristol. (Yahoo B Driver)
Paul Menard – Menard has zero top fifteens in his career at Thunder Valley. Last year he started 12th in both races. (Yahoo C Driver)
David Ragan – Not much has gone right for Ragan this year and Bristol’s not a good place for the unlucky. In 2008 he finished 10th, but you can’t avoid a 25.0 average finish. (Yahoo C Driver)
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My Pick : Kurt Busch
Onpitrow.com Expert Picks: Kurt Busch
