Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Martinsville – Goody’s Fast Relief 500 (Post Qualifying)
Now that qualifying is over, there will be no more track time for the Sprint Cup drivers until the green flag drops Sunday afternoon. I’m not sure how telling average practice speeds will be, but click here for my practice breakdown for this week. Jamie McMurray grabbed his first pole at Martinsville this afternoon with a lap of 19.621 seconds. The entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Qualifying isn’t extremely important at Martinsville, though. If you don’t believe me, just check out this post from the guy that runs this site.
Denny Hamlin continued his dominance at this track in 2010, winning both of the races held at Martinsville Speedway. For the complete spring race results, click here. I didn’t think he had the best car in the fall race, but he still won; Hamlin is just that good here. To see how each racer finished in that race compared to how their average practice speeds were, click here. As I said before, I’m not sure how significant practice speeds will be this week–I’ll let you decide that. The only drivers to record top tens in both races here last year were Hamlin, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Jimmie Johnson.
Top Fifteen For The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:
1. Denny Hamlin – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.8 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
With an average career finish of 6.1 at this track, as well as three straight wins, Denny Hamlin is the one driver that should be on every roster this weekend. The only time that Hamlin hasn’t finished in the top ten at “The Paperclip” was in 2006, when he started 41st and was noted as being in an accident while posting a 37th place finish. If you take that race out, Hamlin’s average finish here is 3rd. He starts in the top five, so look for Denny to get out front early and take the checkered flag at the end (or at least finish in the top three).
2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.8
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I flip-flopped “Happy” and “Five Time” from my preview simply because Harvick starts better. I think it will be a crap shoot for the win between these two and Denny Hamlin (with maybe a surprise thrown in there like Jamie McMurray). Harvick’s career average finish at this track is 17.3, but in the last seven races he’s finished outside of the top 12 just once–and that was the spring race last year where he started on the pole and led 57 laps. He’s brought the same car from Phoenix that was wrecked but still posted a 4th-place finish, and Kevin has had great cars all year. Harvick ranked first in average practice speed on Friday and was 5th in ten-lap average during the second session.
3. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.8
**Change from my preview: -1 spots. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
There’s no reason that Hamlin and Johnson shouldn’t be heavily picked this week–their records here are phenomenal. In JJ’s first start at “The Paperclip,” he finished a disappointing 35th, but since then (seventeen races) he hasn’t had a result lower than 9th. From late 2006 to early 2009, Johnson won five out of six races here, and while he didn’t lead a lap at this track in 2010, I don’t think you will see a “0” in that category after Sunday. The only way that Johnson won’t post a top ten is if he has problems, but let’s be serious: when does “The Champ” have problems?
4. Jeff Gordon – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.4 (one win)
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
Gordon has made 36 starts at this half-mile track, and his results have been great to say the least. He has seven wins here and has finished in the top five in 11 of the past 12 races here. The only time that he hasn’t posted a top five was in the fall race last season, but that was because he was wrecked. Gordon was 2nd-fasted in the final practice session and was in the top ten in both practices in terms of ten-lap average. Don’t be worried about his less-than-stellar qualifying effort, as you should see the #24 Chevrolet near the front pretty quickly on Sunday.
5. Ryan Newman – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.8
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“The Rocketman” is a bit hit-or-miss at this track, so don’t be surprised if he disappoints you this weekend. He has the potential to score a top five finish, but he could easily slip back to the mid-teens by the end of the race. He seemed to like his car, so I’ll take his word for it, and he ranked 6th in the second practice session (8th in ten-lap average). Newman has three top 10s in his past four starts here and averages a finish right around 14th at this track. With the way Newman is running this season, I’ll won’t be afraid take my chances on him this weekend. He’s finished in the top five in 33% of his starts at this track.
6. Kyle Busch – Starts 11th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.2
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Rowdy has never won at this track and, like Newman, is hit-or-miss when the series comes to Martinsville. Busch has made twelve starts at this short track, and while he has never won, he does own five top 5s. On the flip side, Kyle also has five finishes of 22nd or worse at Martinsville in his career, which help bring his average finish to 16.7. He was 4th in ten-lap average in the second practice session and ranked 7th in average speed on Friday, whatever those are worth. It’s hard to bet against Rowdy Busch this weekend considering how well his Toyota has been the past few weeks. He also stated that Joe Gibbs Racing has figured out their engine problems, so if he is correct, I expect the entire stable to have a good race on Sunday in Martinsville.
7. Jamie McMurray – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.6
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I really like McMurray this week. When I wrote my preview, Jamie Mac was going to be ranked 15th, but I ended up putting him on my underdog list. Hopefully some people that play the Yahoo! league listened to me and got the bonus points for McMurray winning the pole, because I am regretting taking him off my roster right now. McMurray flat-out said they had the best car in practice, and it showed: he had the best ten-lap average in the second practice session and was 2nd on the average speed chart for Friday. Jamie finished 2nd here in 2004 and I think he has a chance to finish around there again this weekend–if he doesn’t pull off a surprising visit to victory lane. McMurray has finished in the top 11 in three of his past four starts here.
8. Mark Martin – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.2
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Mark “The Kid” Martin has disappointed me a lot this season, but that has mainly been on the larger tracks. In the most recent race at Martinsville, Martin finished 2nd behind Denny Hamlin even though he had some damage to his car from earlier in the race. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Martin has three top 10s in four starts at Martinsville, and it is possible that he could make that four of five this Sunday. He was quick in both practice sessions, but I’ve learned not to pick Martin this season just because of how practice ended up. In 46 starts at this half-mile track, Mark has an average career finish of 13.1.
9. Carl Edwards – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.0 (one win)
**Change from my preview: -4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This ranking may prove to be a little bit high, but I like the way Edwards is racing this year and he finished 2nd at Bristol a few weeks ago–the other short track on the schedule. Cousin Carl finished 8th in both races at Martinsville in 2010 and has four top 10s in his last six starts at this track. Edwards only has one top five in his career here, so don’t expect anything great this weekend, but a top fifteen isn’t out of the question and a top ten is possible.
10. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.2
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Really the only reason that Logano is ranked 10th is because of his bad luck this year. He was forced into a backup car because of a wreck in practice, but this Toyota is super fast as well (as he showed in qualifying). Joey finished 2nd and 6th at Martinsville in 2010, so you know “Sliced Bread” can get around this track. He was super fast in both practice sessions, even though the laps he ran were in two different cars. This could be the race that Logano turns his season around with, but he could very easily hit more bad luck on Sunday and disappoint his fantasy owners at ths same time.
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 26th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.6
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Don’t worry about Junior’s low starting position: he has been bad in qualifying all year. In the fall race last season, Dale started 28th and ended up 7th in the end, and I could easily see that happening this weekend. But with the way he has been running lately, I think a finish between 10th and 12th is more probable for Earnhardt this weekend. He has top 15s in five of his last six starts at this track, with four of them being in the top 10. While Junior has never won here, he owns 11 top tens in 22 starts at “The Paperclip,” and he has Steve Letarte on the pit box now, who had great success with Jeff Gordon at this track.
12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.6
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Since 2007, Bowyer has finished in the top eleven in 80% of his starts at this track, but he has never led a lap in his career at “The Paperclip.” He ranked 3rd in average practice speed Friday, so Clint seems to have a pretty good car. Bowyer notched his first top ten of the season last week in Fontana, and while I think it will take some strategy for him to get his second, a top fifteen is likely for the #33 Chevrolet. Bowyer’s last four finishes in the spring race at Martinsville have been 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th.
13. Kasey Kahne – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 18.6
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
For some reason this year, I have repeatedly overlooked Kasey Kahne week in and week out. He’s 11th in points and has three top tens in the first five races, and it is certainly possible for Kahne to get a fourth top 10 this weekend. He starts up front and was 5th in the second practice session on Friday. Kasey also ranked 8th in average practice speed. His history is suspect here, though, so proceed with caution if you pick the #4 Toyota this weekend. Kahne hasn’t had a top ten at Martinsville since 2006 and his career average finish here is around 19th. He hasn’t finished worse than 14th since Daytona, though, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend.
14. Juan Montoya – Starts 27th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.8
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
JPM has made eight starts at this half-mile track, posting two top 10s and an average finish of 15.1. He’s only finished outside of the top twenty once in his career here, though, so this can be considered one track where he’s fairly consistent at. Juan ranked 10th in average practice speed and was the fastest in first practice in terms of ten-lap average. Montoya has posted top tens every other week this season, and if he continues this little streak on Sunday, I wouldn’t expect one this weekend, but his teammate is super fast so he may surprise me on Sunday.
15. Tony Stewart – Starts 28th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.0
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Smoke” hasn’t been too impressive at Martinsville this weekend, but you never know if he is “showing his hand” in practice or not. Throughout Stewart’s career, he has started outside of the top 20 five times at this track, and his average finish in those races is 17th. He finished 26th and 24th at this track in 2010 but Stewart’s career average finish here is right around 13th. He looked more impressive in first practice than second, but who knows how telling those speeds will be this weekend.
“Surprise” Picks For The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:
Brad Keselowski – He was super fast in practice on Friday, but didn’t impress me very much in qualifying. But if you listened to the broadcast, that should be expected of BK at this track. He’s made just two starts at this track, and while his average starting position is 27.5, his average finish is 11th. Keselowski posted a 10th-place finish here in the fall race last season.
A.J. Allmendinger – The ‘Dinger isn’t great here, but he finished 12th in the fall race last season and he brought his top fifteen car from Phoenix to the track this weekend. He starts 6th on Sunday and was 10th in the second practice session on Friday. Allmendinger has three top 15s and four finishes of 34th or worse in his seven starts here, so expect a hit-or-miss #43 Ford this weekend.
Bobby Labonte – Last year, Marcos Ambrose posted an 11th-place finish with this car at Martinsville, and Labonte starts 7th on Sunday. He was in the top 15 in both practice sessions Friday (7th in the second session) and was 3rd in ten-lap average during the first session. In the #96 Ford for Hall of Fame Racing in 2009, Labonte posted finished of 13th and 16th at this track.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:
David Reutimann – He starts 8th on Sunday and was 4th in the second practice session on Friday, but expect Reutty to drop like rock once the green flag waves. His best finish here is 16th and his average finish here is 25.5.
Regan Smith – I really think that Regan Smith is really turning into Ryan Newman. He’s been the best qualifier this year but doesn’t have the good runs to back it up. Regan starts 10th on Sunday but his average finish in five races here is 29th.
Greg Biffle – The Biff starts 33rd and while I don’t expect him to finish there, I also don’t think he will move up much on Sunday. His career average finish here is 23rd and while his best finish here (7th) came when he started 37th, I’d still stay away from him this weekend.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Denny Hamlin, Darkhorse – Jamie McMurray
Yahoo!: A-List: Denny Hamlin, B-List: Brad Keselowski, Juan Montoya C-List: Bobby Labonte
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Brad Keselowski, Bobby Labonte
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: TBD
I’m not a fan of these new procedures to hold all practice sessions on Friday and qualify on Saturday, so I could be completely off on my predictions. If you don’t want to have faith in the practice speeds this week, go with the drivers that are good at this track and hope nothing happens to them. For my final fantasy picks, be sure to follow me on Twitter, and be sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well–there are many cool people on there to chat with during the week or during the race.
