Talladega Aaron’s 499 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

Click HERE for tons of great Talladega Fantasy NASCAR linksA= Really, Really Good Pick

Kevin Harvick = There’s not a safer pick this week then Harvick. He has momentum on his side, he’s good at avoiding trouble on the track and he’s the defending champion. (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer = Bowyer won last fall and in five out of the last six Talladega races he’s finished 12th or better. Bowyer’s entering the race with momentum and he does a good job avoiding trouble on the track. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kurt Busch = Busch is the best restrictor plate driver who’s never won a points paying race. Kurt Busch has thirteen top tens at Talladega and is a consistent front runner. In the spring race he’s finished in the top ten in five out of the last six races. (Yahoo A Driver)

VOTE for who you think will win at Talladega

A- = Really Good Pick

Dale Earnhardt Jr. = Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins at Talladega nearly a decade ago but are they still relative? Absolutely, you can’t count out Little E. Did you know he’s led in 20 out of the 22 Talladega races he’s been in. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya = Last year in both Talladega races Juan Pablo Montoya finished third. Loop data wise he has the seventh best driver rating (85.9). All of his average numbers look good to me (avg start 14.5, avg mid race 14.3, avg finish 14.8, avg position 13.8). (Yahoo B Driver)

Carl Edwards = Edwards is a very underrated restrictor plate driver. Remember where he was when “The Crash” happened in 2009? Also Edwards finished second in the Daytona 500. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jamie McMurray = There’s absolutely no reason why you shouldn’t roll the dice with him. In the last three Talladega races McMurray’s finished first, second, and thirty-sixth. (Yahoo B Driver)

Matt Kenseth = Kenseth’s underrated on plate tracks. In the mid 2000’s he was as good as anyone on these wild card tracks. Here’s what I said about him in my 2011 Matt Kenseth fantasy preview, “Kenseth is a really good restrictor plate driver. His Daytona win was far from a fluke. If anything I would say I’m surprised he hasn’t won multiple races on these wild card tracks. His results have been pretty flat since his Daytona 500 win but I trust him.” (Yahoo A Driver)

Check out my Talladega Scouting Report

B+ = Good Pick

Ryan Newman = Newman’s batting nearly .500 in terms of getting top tens at Talladega (8 for 18). He’s known for flipping but he can get the job done. (Yahoo B Driver)

Denny Hamlin = Hamlin swept the top ten last year and he currently has the highest driver rating at Talladega (93.0). What I don’t like about Hamlin is that this team has had tons of problems at the track so far and getting collected in “the big one” only seems fitting. I think he’s a high risk pick. (Yahoo A Driver)

Brian Vickers = Vickers is so good at Talladega he can win with a third place car, literally. Vickers is a hero or zero at Talladega. He has five top tens and six finishes of 27th or worse. Vickers has never finished between 13th and 27th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brad Keselowski = Why not pick him, especially if you’re in an allocation league. He won in 2009 and altogether he’s batting .750 when it comes to getting top tens at Talladega. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan = If there’s one thing you can trust David Ragan on it’s restrictor plate tracks. Sure he messed up at Daytona but remember where he was when he messed up. Ragan’s average finish is 14.3. (Yahoo C Driver)

Paul Menard = With the amount of success he’s had this year why can’t he have a good run at Talladega? If you’re in a allocation league I would avoid him. (Yahoo C Driver)

Tony Stewart = Tony Stewart’s never crossed the finish line first at Talladega but this winner has had problems in recent races. Since he was awarded the victory over Regan Smith he hasn’t finished in the top ten. Stewart’s finished second at Talladega six times. (Yahoo A Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Jimmie Johnson = If you’re in an allocation league there’s absolutely no good reason to pick Jimmie Johnson at Talladega. Traditionally Jimmie Johnson usually finishes better in the fall race because his non-racing strategy works out really good for him. Johnson hasn’t finished in the top ten in the spring Talladega race since 2007. In the fall race Johnson hasn’t missed the top ten since 2006. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch = Kyle Busch won at Talladega in 2008 and finished 9th last year but other than that I don’t like his Talladega resume. He hasn’t finished in quarter of the races he’s entered. In seven of his twelve races he’s finished 25th or worse. (Yahoo A Driver)

Joey Logano = His record is similar to Keselowski’s except without the win. He’s also finished in the top ten in three out of four races. What I don’t like is how he’s been running this year. I think it’s because of his bad karma from wrecking Juan Pablo Montoya under caution last year at Homestead. Don’t remember seeing that on TV do you? Currently Logano has the best average finish in the loop data era (13.3). (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Jeff Gordon = Gordon finished 8th last fall but in the five previous Talladega races he finished 19th or worse. That’s right around 20th so I’ll pencil him in for a B-. (Yahoo A Driver)

Greg Biffle = Picking Biffle at Talladega is something nightmares are made of. Where do you think the title Hallowodega came from last year? That’s right, it was for people who picked Biffle to win at Talladega. In sixteen races Biffle has only finished in the top ten twice. (Yahoo A Driver)

David Reutimann = Reutimann finished 4th last fall and 14th in the spring but other than that all of his other six finishes are 20th or worse. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Kasey Kahne = Kahne’s finished second at Talladega twice but those are his only two top tens. He’s never led more than seven laps in a single race at Talladega which means he’s back where the troubles are looming. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose = Ambrose finished 4th in his first Talladega race but his last three finishes were 34th, 37th and 34th. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger = You can tell he’s Ambrose’s teammate because his numbers are similar. His finishes are 32nd, 19th, 33rd, 35th, and 30th. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Jeff Burton = With the amount of luck he’s had this year he’s a lock for a top ten LOL.  He’s had good competitive cars in recent Talladega races but he’s crashed in those races (Yahoo B Driver).

Mark Martin = Martin’s had lots of success in his career at Talladega but he has problems nearly every week so why should this race be any different? (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Truex Jr. = After watching his NAPA commercials Saturday night I came to the conclusion his singing ability is to compenstate for how well he performs at Talladega. He finished sixth last fall but I want nothing to do with his 25.2 average finish. Truex has also become a “crash magnet” in recent weeks so I say avoid him at all costs. (Yahoo B Driver)