Richmond Crown Royal Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Kyle Busch – In the last four Richmond races Kyle Busch has two wins, one second place finish and one fifth place finish. You can’t go wrong by picking Kyle Busch at Richmond. Earlier this year at Phoenix (similar track) Kyle Busch finished second to Jeff Gordon. (Yahoo A Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Not a lot has gone right for Denny Hamlin this year but he can turn it around at his home track Richmond. In the loop data era (2005 onward) Denny Hamlin’s led the most laps (1,150), has the best driver rating (119.8), he’s ran the most fast laps (440), has the best average running position (5.4) and his average mid race running position is an impressive 2.5. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick’s finished in the top ten at Richmond in all but one race since 2005. Last spring Harvick finished 3rd to Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon. Harvick won at Richmond in 2006. At Phoenix Harvick finished 4th with a damaged race car. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon finished 12th last fall which snapped his seven race top ten streak at Richmond. Last spring Jeff Gordon led 144 laps and finished second to Kyle Busch. Jeff Gordon won at Phoenix earlier this year which is similar to Phoenix. (Yahoo A Driver)

Ryan Newman – Ryan Newman and short flat tracks go hand in hand. In sixteen races at Richmond Newman’s only finished outside the top 15 four times. His career average finish is an impressive 11.4. Newman won at Richmond  in 2003. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer will be a contender Saturday night in the Richmond Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400. He won this race in 2008 when Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had their little run in. Clint Bowyer won at New Hampshire last fall which is similar to Richmond. (Yahoo B Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is either “a hero or a zero” at Richmond. I don’t like those odds. He has three wins at Richmond but he also has seven finishes of 20th or worse. Last year Johnson finished 3rd and 10th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards finished 15th and 5th last year but I’m hesitant to pick Carl Edwards at Richmond. Edwards has finished outside the top twenty in nearly 40% of his starts. If you’re in an allocation league there’s not a single reason to pick Edwards. (Yahoo A Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – If he’s going to win a race soon this is his best chance until July. Up until his late 2000’s slump he was as good as anyone here. Earnhardt has three wins at Richmond. (Yahoo B Driver)

Tony Stewart – Smoke hasn’t been on fire lately at Richmond. In his last three starts he’s finished 16th, 17th and 23rd. Before that three race span he finished in the top four in four consecutive races.Tony Stewart was a contender at Phoenix in February. (Yahoo A Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya’s had many impressive runs this season and Richmond most likely will be another. Montoya’s finished in the top ten in three out of the last four Richmond races. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Burton – With his tough luck this season it’s hard to rate him to high but Richmond is a good track for this Virgina native. He’s finished in the top thirteen in all but one race since 2008. (Yahoo B Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Matt Kenseth – I don’t care what amount of momentum Kenseth has heading into Richmnod, he’s simply not a good pick. He hasn’t finished in the top ten here since 2007. Also his dismal Chase missing performance is still ingrained in my head. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch must be a Kyle Busch fan because he finished 18th twice last year. Kurt Busch won at Richmond in 2005. Don’t ever let anyone tell you Richmond and New Hampshire aren’t similar because his race winning chassis in 2005 was run the very next week at New Hampshire by then teammate Mark Martin. (Yahoo A Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – SLEEPER ALERT, SLEEPER ALERT. Ambrose finished 5th and 9th last year. In his other two career starts he finished 11th and 22nd. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – SLEEPER alert again. AJ finished 8th last fall, 12th & 10th at New Hampshire last year, and 9th at Phoenix this year. Don’t forget about him this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Mark Martin – Martin finished in the 20’s both races last season. Before that he had four straight top five finishes. Hopefully he keeps his distance from Kevin Harvick this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – The good news about him is that between the September 2004 race and the September 2006 race he finished in the top eight every race. The bad news is that those are his only top tens.He’s only finished in the top fifteen three times since 2007. (Yahoo A Driver)

Joey Logano – Logano’s average finish is 13.25, but I’m not counting on him living up to that. He hasn’t lived up to a single thing yet this year so why should he start now? Things have gone down hill for him since he wrecked Montoya under caution at Homestead. Logano finished 4th last fall. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann’s had many sub-par finishes at Ricmond but in 2008 he nearly won! He led 104 laps that race and faded back to finish 9th. His average finish is 19.4 and I believe this number accurately represents what you should expect. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kasey Kahne – Kahne won his first career race at Richmond in 2005 but his success is extremely limited here. In the last five Richmond races Kahne has only finished in the top fifteen once. At Phoenix in February Kahne finished sixth. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Martin Truex Jr. – In two out of the last three Richmond races Truex finished in the top seven. Unfortunately those are his only finishes that are better than 15th at Richmond. He’s to risky of a pick for me. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers has only finished in the top ten twice at Richmond. Once was in his first race (2004) and his next was in 2009 when he kept Kyle Busch out of the Chase. His average finish is 25.4. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Brad’s got two top fifteen finishes in three races. The only race he didn’t finish in the top fifteen his engine blew up. Brad’s never qualified outside the top ten at Richmond. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Jamie McMurray – McMurray’s only finished in the top fifteen once since 2006. If that doesn’t say don’t pick him then I don’t know what does. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – I could play my trump card and say throw his stats out the window this week but I’m not going to. He’ll come down to earth soon and become the Paul Menard fantasy racers have known in the past. In eight races at Richmond Menard has only finished better than 25th once and that was his first race. (Yahoo C Driver)

David Ragan – Ragan was awesome at Richmond…. back in 2007 when he finished 3rd. Beyond that his next best finish is 17th. His 21.8 average finish is spot on. Ragan has zero DNF’s and has never finished more than two laps down at Richmond. (Yahoo C Driver)