Dover FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is the unquestioned favorite at the Monster Mile. He’s won three out of the last four and in the one he didn’t win NASCAR caught him speeding on pit road during the last round of green flag pit stops. In the last four Dover races Johnson has led 82% of the laps. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards struggled at Dover early in his career but once he figured it out he hasn’t looked back. Since 2006 Edwards hasn’t finished lower than 11th and his average finish in this time span is 4.66. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Last springs race was a showdown between Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson. Kyle Busch emerged the victor for the second time in his sprint cup career at the Monster Mile. In 2010 Busch led 177 laps at Dover. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Matt Kenseth – It’s hard not to like Matt Kenseth at Dover. He has top tens in every Dover race since 2006 except for two of them. Before last fall Kenseth had five straight top four finishes. (Yahoo A Driver)

Greg Biffle – Biffle’s a serious threat for the win at “The Monster Mile”. He’s a lock for a solid top ten finish. Loop data wise Greg Biffle ranks second to only Jimmie Johnson in terms of driver rating (110.1). In the last twelve races at Dover Biffle also has the best average finish (6.7) and the best average running position (8.0). Biffle has two wins here. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Burton – Last year Jeff Burton finished second in both Dover races. He’s had his struggles this year but Dover has been like medicine to him before. In 2006 he beat Matt Kenseth to the finish line and snapped a long losing streak. Could it happen again? (Yahoo B Driver)

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B+ = Good Pick

Ryan Newman – Newman’s always  been good at Dover however his really, really good numbers are front loaded in his career. The fall 2007 race was a turning point in his career at Dover. Before that race he was a lock for a top ten and almost always the pole. Since 2007 he hasn’t finished better than eighth and his qualifying has been sub par.  Don’t get over hyped on Newman this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

Tony Stewart – You can tell he’s Ryan Newman’s teammate because his good numbers are also front loaded in his career. Between 1999 and 2004 Stewart never finished worse than 11th. Since 2005 he’s been hit or miss at Dover. His average finish since 2005 is 19.4. (Yahoo A Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – SLEEPER ALERT, in the last three Dover races AJ has finished 10th, 14th and 7th. Last fall he led 143 laps but pit road problems hurt him greatly. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Gordon has good numbers across the board at Dover. Since 2006 Gordon has only finished lower than 12th once. I would pencil him for a finish between 5th and 11th. (Yahoo A Driver)

B = A Tier Below The Good Picks

Mark Martin – I would describe Mark Martin as “steady” at Dover. His career numbers at the Monster Mile are awesome (12.5 avg. finish in 49 races) but in recent one’s he’s been a tier below the greats. Since joining Hendrick he’s basically been about a 12th place driver. (Yahoo B Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Despite his two top tens last season I wouldn’t feel comfortable picking Hamlin at Dover. Hamlin also tested for Good Year recently at this track. What I don’t like is that he doesn’t like it and I would say expect a sub top ten finish. Last year when Hamlin had his good finishes the 11 team was much more competitive then they are now. (Yahoo A Driver)

[ One of my All-Time favorite Denny Hamlin moments, watch this video. This is the same wrath that awaited Kyle Busch]

Joey Logano – Logano’s found a decent amount of success in his short career at Dover. In his first race he finished 15th, then he did his huge tumble via Tony Stewart, then he finished tenth and last fall he finished 3rd. Should be a viable pick this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kevin Harvick – as ifantasyracer’s know I like Kevin Harvick. If I were forced to pick him at Dover though I wouldn’t be happy. I would describe him as mediocore at best. Only once in his career has he led more than 2 laps. When it comes to Harvick and you pick him prepare to be happy with a 15th place finish. (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Success hasn’t come easy for Clint at Dover. His best finish ever was eighth but he’s finished in that position three times. Bowyer has finished outside the top ten in 70% of his races. (Yahoo B Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – If you’re a Dale Earnhardt Jr. fan pick him, but if your a fantasy racer beware. His last top ten was 2007 and he’s never led a lap in the COT. The last time he led more than 1 lap at Dover you need to look back all the way to 2003. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray is a little bit of a sleeper in my eyes. His average finish is poor (17.56) but he’s had some real good runs here. He nearly won this race in 2006 and he’s been competitive on many other occasions.  (Yahoo B Driver)

Kurt Busch – In three out of the last four Dover races Kurt Busch has finished in the top five. My concern about him is that throughout his career he’s been hit or miss at Dover and he usually misses.  The 22 team has had struggles this year on the track so I think the probability of him missing again is high. (Yahoo A Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Marcos Amborse – No success but SLEEPER ALERT. In his 47 car days he only finished in the top 15 once. Why do I think there’s a chance for success this time around? I think there’s a chance based on how strong AJ Allmendinger was last year. RPM cars have proven to me that when one runs strong they both run strong. (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Truex Jr. – Out of the 27 drivers I rank weekly Martin Truex Jr. has the worst four race average at Dover. In 2007 Truex won the first COT race at Dover but he struggles here to much for my liking. I have no doubt he’ll run good but what you seen happen to him at Richmond and Darlington will happen to him again here. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – Now’s probably a good time to hop aboard the Paul Menard train again, at least for this race. Last fall Menard finished 7th and had a decent 91.9 driver rating. His other finishes are all 19th or worse. (Yahoo C Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann finished 5th last spring but that’s his only top fifteen finish in seven races at this track. His average finish is 20.1 and I believe this accurately reflects what you should expect. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brad Keselowski – He’s definitely about a 20th place driver. In fact that his exact average finish. Last year he finished 22nd and 18th. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Kasey Kahne – Have you seen his Dover numbers. Yikes! Kasey Kahne’s best race at Dover was his first race but he spun in oil wrecking his car while leading. In 2009 he finished in the top ten in both races. His one other top ten was back in 2006. His average finish at “The Monster Mile” is a lowly 22.9. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya -There’s really nothing to be to excited about this week if your a Montoya fan but at least we know his pain threshold exceeds Newman’s punches. He finished 4th in 2009 when he drove like Super Man in the Chase but beyond that he’s finished in the 30’s in half his career starts. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Brian Vickers – Just like Darlington you won’t find any success here either. His last and lone top ten was in 2005. Vickers has only led 7 laps at Dover in the Sprint Cup Series and they were all in his Dover debut. You can’t say he’s getting any better here. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – After his strong Richmond run he returned back to normal at Darlington. What’s normal for him at “The Monster Mile”, about a 23rd place finish. (Yahoo C Driver)