Sprint Cup Chase Watch, who’s in and who’s out: The All Star Race

The season is nearly at the midpoint and at this time it’s pretty clear that some drivers are in and some drivers have already raced their way out of NASCAR’s playoffs.

Drivers who I think are locked in:

Jimmie Johnson – Old Five Time will definitely be driving for “The race for seis”. Just wait until they really get going.

Carl Edwards – Minus Kyle Busch crashing him at Phoenix and an uncompetitive Martinsville outing no driver has been more consistent this season. The 99 team is the real deal and they’ll be a challenge to Jimmie Johnson.

Kyle Busch – With two wins already there’s no way he’s going to miss the playoffs. However I do feel the schedule will become less favorable to him in just a few short weeks.

Kevin Harvick – He’s in the same boat Kyle Busch is in. The 29 team is a serious title contender and Kevin Harvick is as good as anyone.

Matt Kenseth – His two wins have him all but locked into the playoffs as well. With his consistency I don’t think he’ll need the wins to get in.

Others who I think will make it:

Clint Bowyer – He’s always underestimated but under NASCAR’s new scoring system consistency is key and he’s got it.

Tony Stewart – Dover was a disaster for him but that’s alright, smoke always drives better in the summer anyways. His fast start was pretty uncharacteristic.

Denny Hamlin – Trust me he’s not out. The schedule is extremely favorable for him and he’s been worse in the standings before and still made the Chase.

Drivers on the Chase bubble who might make it and might not:

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – I don’t hate Dale Jr., but I think he’s a bubble driver. I honestly haven’t seen anything out of him that says he’s in.

Jeff Gordon – Gordon finished 17th at Dover and climbed three spots in the point standings. How does that happen? Performance wise he’s in huge trouble and the only thing he has going for him is his Phoenix win.

Greg Biffle – The 16 team really hasn’t had any competitive problems on the track this year, their main problems are self inflicted. I expect him to get some wins in the coming months effectively locking himself in the Chase.

Mark Martin – Martin hasn’t been very good on the track this year but right now he’s 11th in the points. Imagine what could happen if he starts consistently getting good finishes.

Ryan Newman – In four out of the last six races Newman’s finished outside the top twenty. After this recent stretch I think his Chase chances are in great peril.

Regan Smith – His chances of making the Chase are a bit of a stretch but if Jeff Gordon somehow get’s competitive on the track clearing one position for a 2011 race winner in the Chase and if Smith can get into the top twenty in the points then it can happen.

Juan Pablo Montoya – His best chance of making the Chase is to win a race. Expect this team to go all out at Indy, Infineon and Watkins Glen. If he doesn’t have any wins after Watkins Glen then you can stick a fork in his chances of competing for the championship.

Drivers who aren’t going to make it:

Kurt Busch – Hopefully he’ll have better luck next year. I just don’t see it in his future. Since Auto Club Speedway it’s been uncompetitive race after uncompetitive race out of him.

Kasey Kahne – I don’t think it’s possible to make the Chase with his Red Bull “one and done” strategy. I don’t think he would make it anyways because Kahne and consistency have never mixed.

AJ Allmendinger – He’s shown himself to be competitive this season at times but not consistent enough to contend for a Chase berth.

Jeff Burton – He’s way out of the Chase. The Mayor still doesn’t have a top ten finish in 2011.