Scouting Report: Kansas STP 400
How to make an informed pick for the Kansas STP 400
1) Look at similar track races that have been run this year. Also when you look at similar track races don’t just look at the finish position. Look at their overall body of work for the race.
2) Practice will be extremely important this week. If a driver struggles in practice look for them to also struggle in the race.
3) It’s also important to look at past races at Kansas to make an informed pick this week. Just don’t let this be the one dominating decision-making factor for you. Other variables are more important in my opinion this week.
4) If you pick your team solely based on qualifying then you’re in trouble.
Drivers to watch:
Carl Edwards – Roush Fenway Cars will be fast this weekend and I expect none to be faster than Cousin Carl. The 99 team has never won at Kansas but that can easily change. In 2008 he finished second to Jimmie Johnson and proved just how much he wants to win here with his daring last lap move. Earlier this year Carl won at Las Vegas which is similar to Kansas Speedway. On high-speed intermediate tracks this year his average running position is 7.15.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson won in 2008 but I think the roles will be reversed this time around with the 99 team taking the checkered flag. What I really like about Jimmie Johnson is how strong he was at Auto Club Speedway earlier this year. Only teams who have the total intermediate package are capable of performing at that track. In the last six years at Kansas Johnson has a 5.8 average finish, 7.2 average running position, 118.7 driver rating and under the old points system he averaged an incredible 160.6 points per race.
Greg Biffle – If you want to play it safe this week “stick with the Biff”. His average finish in the last six years is 3.7. In this time span he’s only finished outside the top three once. The 16 team has been very good on intermediate tracks this season but problems have hindered them all to often.
Matt Kenseth – You can’t go wrong this weekend if you pick any of the big three Roush Fenway drivers. In the last six years Kenseth has finished in the top seven 50% of the time. That may be somewhat troublesome but he’s worth the risk this week.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick may not be the first driver who comes to your mind at Kansas but he’ll be a contender this weekend. In the last four years he’s finished in the top six three times at Kansas. Other things that boost his resume this week is his Auto Club Speedway win, his win last summer at Michigan, how well he ran at Las Vegas (before pit road penalty hurt him) and his recent Charlotte win.
Sleepers to watch:
David Reutimann – Chicago winner who ran well last year before his run-in with Kyle Busch.
Marcos Ambrose – His Ford has been fast all season long on intermediate tracks.
Brian Vickers – Hasn’t performed good in fall races in a long time but this one isn’t in fall. Had top ten finishes at Auto Club Speedway and Las Vegas earlier this year.
VegasInsider.com Odds to win:
Carl Edwards 9/2, Jimmie Johnson 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 8/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Denny Hamlin 10/1, Greg Biffle 12/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 14/1, Matt Kenseth 16/1
