Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Kansas – STP 400 (Post Qualifying)

Load Up On Roush This Weekend…As Usual

Now that qualifying is overwith, the cars won’t see the track again until the wave of the green flag for STP 400 tomorrow afternoon. Kurt Busch won the pole for the event, beating out Juan Montoya by over one-tenth of a second. You can find the complete starting lineup by clicking here. In case you missed the two practice sessions on Friday, or want to check out average speeds, click here to read my Practice Breakdown for Kansas.

This will be the first race ever to be held at a time other than the fall at Kansas Speedway. Greg Biffle started 5th last year in The Price Chopper 400 and 60 laps en route to visiting victory lane. Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Jeff Gordon all notched top fives in that race. The Sprint Cup Series will come back to Kansas later this year for the fourth race in the Chase For The Cup.

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The STP 400:

1. Carl Edwards – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Like I said in my preview for the STP 400, it’s getting a little crazy how Carl Edwards has a super fast Ford Fusion week in and week out. He was ranked first in my pre-season rankings, and he is making me (and many others) look good with the season he is having. Edwards–surprisingly–doesn’t have a win at Kansas, but it is the only thing that he has been talking about all weekend, and I like his chances to visit victory lane for the second time this season on Sunday. He ran only 38 laps in practice, which means one thing: he loves his car. Carl should lead early and often tomorrow afternoon.

2. Greg Biffle – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
With an average career finish of right around 8th, Kansas is (obviously) The Biff’s best track. He is the most recent winner at this track and has finished in the top three in six of the last seven Kansas races. Do you think that is going to change tomorrow? Neither do I. Biffle had the fastest car in practice (in terms of average speed) and ended up P1 in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. As I said earlier this week, as long as the bad luck bug doesn’t bite Biffle again this weekend, he should challenge for his first win of the season.

3. Tony Stewart – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Smoke” typically doesn’t show his hand in practice, so when you see him in the top ten on the average speed chart, he has a very fast Chevrolet. Stewart has finished 4th or 1st in five of the last eight Kansas races, and really is better here than his 12.3 average career finish. Tony struggled at this track in 2007 and 2008, and without those races his average finish would be 5.5. Stewart will be looking to grab his first win of the season on Sunday, and that would be a great boost for him before heading to his dirt track–Eldora Speedway in Rossburg, Ohio–for the Prelude To The Dream on Wednesday evening.

4. Kevin Harvick – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
There are many reasons why I will be picking “Happy Harvick” this week on my fantasy rosters. First, I think that it is a good idea to pick the most recent race winner, simply because they have an extra boost of confidence for the entire week. Second, the #29 Chevrolet will roll off the grid 10th on Sunday. Kevin Harvick never qualifies very well unless he has a good car. Finally, 20th on the average speed chart is actually pretty good for Harvick. It’s normal to see him in the mid-twenties or thirties during most weeks. He has just four top 10s in ten starts at Kansas, but three of them have come in his last four starts. Expect Harvick to improve his 14.6 average finish at this track once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

5. Matt Kenseth – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s going to be very hot tomorrow afternoon, and that is just another reason why I like the Fords (because they run cooler). Kenseth isn’t stellar here–which explains the Medium Risk–but he does have four top 10s in his ten starts at Kansas. When he doesn’t finish there, though, it’s typically a very bad day for Matt, which is why his average finish here is 20.6. I’m not too worried about where Kenseth starts tomorrow, though, for two reasons: one, he never qualifies that well, and two, he has a car fast enough to race his way through traffic (he ended up P8 on the average speed chart).

6. Clint Bowyer – Starts 27th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I couldn’t decide on where to put Bowyer this week, so I’m just going to go on his past history at this track (average finish of 11.8) and the fact that he has had six top 10s in the past eight Sprint Cup races. He wasn’t stellar by any means in practice, but he had the 4th-fastest ten-lap average in first practice, and that has to be worth something, right? This may be too high of a ranking for Clint this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes this high on Sunday.

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 28th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The intermediate tracks have definitely been a strong point for Dale Junior this season, as he has posted top 10s at Charlotte, and Las Vegas, and he once again looked strong in practice (in terms of average speed). The 88 Chevrolet rolls off the grid in 28th, which is a little lower than I would have liked, but Dale has been coming up through traffic this entire season, so it won’t be anything new to him. Junior hasn’t posted a top ten at Kansas since 2007, but I think that there is a good chance that that changes tomorrow.

8. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 31st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -6 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
What happened to Jimmie Johnson in qualifying? His average start at Kansas is 7.3 but he will start tomorrow’s race with thirty cars ahead of him. But, let’s be honest, you know Chad Knaus will get Jimmie up to the front in no time with pit strategy (unless “Five Time” just drives up through the field). The #48 Chevrolet wound up 4th in ten-lap average in Happy Hour, so they seem to be able to keep speed on the long runs–something that is vital for getting through traffic at these intermediate tracks. Johnson’s average finish at Kansas is 9.33 in nine starts.

9. Denny Hamlin – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Denny has just one top 10 finish at Kansas in six career starts, but I think that he could notch a second one this weekend if he can stay out of trouble. He was 5th on the average speed chart, which is pretty surprising, and ended up 8th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. At the intermediate tracks this year, Hamlin has posted top 10 finishes at Charlotte, Las Vegas, Richmond, and Darlington, and he could easily add Kansas to that list on Sunday.

10. Kurt Busch – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Once practice concluded, I saw that Kurt Busch was 3rd on the average speed chart and his stock went up in my mind. When he grabbed the pole on Saturday afternoon, his stock flew through the roof. He has had good runs here in the past, but his last top 10 finish at Kansas came back in 2004–which is the reason he’s in the “High Risk” category this weekend (not to mention how his season has been). However, Penske seems to be turning things around, both Kurt and Keselowski included. If you’re feeling lucky, roll the dice this weekend with “The Double Deuce”.

11. Paul Menard – Starts 9th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: was on underdog list. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Menard ended up just 18th on the average speed chart this weekend, but the #27 team has brought the same car they raced at Texas, and Paul went on to record a 5th-place finish. With the downward spiral this team is on, though, it makes Menard a very risky pick this weekend. Will their bad luck continue, or will the #27 have a complete, good run and turn things around? I guess we will find out tomorrow, but I’m willing to be that they finish this race out, and could be a surprise top ten. Paul finished 8th here last season.

12. Jeff Gordon – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: was on avoid list. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I apologize to anybody that listened to me in my preview and didn’t take Jeff Gordon this weekend. I would have liked to see him start a little better than 22nd, but it’s not where you start, it’s where you finish. Jeff told his team after practice on Friday that the car was “very, very good” which should worry the rest of the competition. He was 2nd in ten-lap average in Happy Hour and wound up 9th on the average speed chart. Gordon has made ten career starts at Kansas Speedway and has come away with seven top 5s. Will he make it eight this weekend? It’s possible, but I’m ranking him 12th simply because of how abysmal they have been on the intermediates this year.

13. Brian Vickers – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
His teammate was in the top five in average speed, so you have to guess that Vickers has a fast car as well. He starts on the second row, and the last time he started there in Kansas (in 2005) he ended the race in 8th. This is Brian’s best qualifying effort of the 2011 season and his third start inside the top ten. The other two races he started there, though, gave him finishes of 38th and 34th. If you take away his 37th-place finish in 2009 at Kansas, Vickers’ worst finish here would be 19th.

14. David Ragan – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Ragan is the one driver that has surprised me the most this season, and I think he will visit victory lane eventually in 2011. Will it be this weekend? Who knows, but I picked him as both my Favorite and my Dark Horse on OnPitRow.com. You can never overlook Ragan (or Roush for that matter) on the intermediate tracks, and Kansas is no exception. The #6 UPS Ford was 12th in average speed and wound up 1st in ten-lap average during first practice. He has made just four starts at this track, but Ragan already owns three finishes inside the top 16, including an 8th-place effort in 2008.

15. Kasey Kahne – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kahne would have been ranked higher if he started in the top ten. It seems like–to me anyway–that when he has a good race, he qualifies up front. The #4 Toyota was 4th in average speed, which is no surprise because Kahne usually practices well whether he has a good car for the race or not. At Kansas, Kasey has made seven career Sprint Cup starts and has two top 10s and an average finish of 19.6. I think he will improve that average finish here, but I don’t see him grabbing a top ten unless fuel mileage or something comes into play.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The STP 400:

Brad Keselowski – I picked BK as my darkhorse for the week and I’m sticking with it. The Blue Deuce looked great in practice, showing up in the top five in both sessions (in terms of ten-lap average). He finished 13th in his first start at Kansas, and Brad has had some pretty good cars in the past three races. Don’t overlook him this weekend.

Juan Montoya – Montoya was completely off of my radar from Monday through Friday, so I was a little surprised to see him ending up on the front row in qualifying. His Chevrolet showed some speed in practice, ending up 7th on the average speed chart, and he will win one of these intermediate races eventually. As long as he can keep his car off the wall, a good finish is definitely in Montoya’s cards this weekend.

Martin Truex, Jr. – Like Montoya, Truex is so hit or miss that it’s hard for me to rank him this week. He was in the top ten in average speed, but he usually ends up there whether he has a good car or not. Truex rolls off the grid 8th, but I see him slipping back and settling between 12th and 18th when it’s all said and done. His teammate, David Reutimann, has found success at these kind of tracks, so maybe that will translate into a good run for Martin and the NAPA Know How team.

Stay Away From These Drivers For The STP 400:

Kyle Busch – I’m gonna stay with my prediction that this will not be a good race for Kyle Busch. He really struggled in practice, but laid down one fast lap at the end, which allowed him to get his good starting position. As I said in my preview, he very well could have a good run tomorrow, but he’s entirely too risky for me to pick him this week. Busch has had some good runs at Kansas, but it doesn’t matter if you run good, it matters if you get the finish. In seven Kansas starts, Kyle has just one top ten.

Marcos Ambrose – The Richard Petty Motorsports teams have found absolutely no speed this weekend, and the #9 team will need to really turn everything around (and have some luck) to get a top 15 on Sunday. Ambrose has had some good runs on the intermediate tracks this year, but he’s also shown speed in practice during those races. Two of Marcos’ three starts at Kansas have ended in mid-30’s finishes.

Jamie McMurray – Don’t let Jamie Mac’s good qualifying effort fool you: he hasn’t had a top ten at Kansas since 2004, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. His teammate has some speed, so that may translate to a good run for McMurray, but I think the #1 Chevrolet will end up right around where Jamie’s average career finish is here: 20th. You can’t win any fantasy championships by picking 20th-place drivers.

My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:

OnPitRow.com: Favorite – David Ragan,  Darkhorse – David Ragan
Yahoo!: A-List: Greg Biffle, B-List: David Reutimann & Kasey Kahne, C-List: Paul Menard
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Paul Menard, David Ragan, Landon Cassill
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Juan Montoya