Michigan Heluva Good 400: Scouting Report
How to make an informed fantasy pick at Michigan International Speedway:
- Practice is by far the most important element this weekend in terms of making a good informed fantasy pick. If a driver struggles during Happy Hour at Michigan then the smart thing to do is move on. I can’t overstate how important practice is at Michigan.
- In term of evaluating similar tracks this weekend the two that you really want to look back to are Auto Club Speedway and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway is Michigan’s sister track. Both are 2.0 mile tracks but the banking is a little bit steeper at Michigan. Kansas is a 1.5 mile track which is essentially a mini-Michigan.
- Track history is important at every track NASCAR visits. It’s important also at Michigan but at intermediate tracks it’s vital to go with the newest data available.
- Qualifying at Michigan is overrated. All that it’s good for is pit selection. If you’re making your fantasy picks based on pit selection then your probably making it a little bit harder then it needs to be. It’s a sign that your an expert because your complicating simplicity.
Drivers to watch in the Michigan Heluva Good 400:
Matt Kenseth – Two time winner who I think is the safest pick this week. Kenseth won at Texas earlier this year and at Auto Club Speedway he finished fourth. It’s hard to ignore his 9.8 average finish. Kenseth has only finished outside the top twenty at Michigan once in 23 races and that was because he was involved in an accident.
Carl Edwards – Edwards is truly a natural at Michigan. He made his first career start here in 2004 and finished tenth. Only once in thirteen races has Edwards finished outside the top fifteen at Michigan. Edwards has two career win at MIS.
Kevin Harvick – The last time NASCAR visited Michigan Harvick emerged victorious. Earlier this year Harvick made a last lap pass on Jimmie Johnson for the win at Auto Club Speedway. He’ll be a contender once again.
Jimmie Johnson – His recent Michigan finishes don’t reflect how good he is here. He’s absolutely dominated a few races at Michigan but came away with really bad finishes to show for it. Since 2007 Johnson has led in every race but one and he’s led an impressive 428 laps.
Jeff Gordon – The 24 team has come to life in recent weeks. Last fall Gordon finished 27th but in the three preceding races he finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd. Gordon has two MIS wins but his most recent win was in 2001.
Kurt Busch – Just like Gordon he’s no longer missing in action. In the last two races Kurt Busch has been extremely strong. His performance at Kansas really stands out to me. Kurt Busch has two wins at Michigan (2007 & 2003) and last spring he finished 3rd.
VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Michigan Heluva Good 400:
Denny Hamlin 9/2, Kyle Busch 5/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1, Tony Stewart 14/1, Kurt Busch 14/1, Greg Biffle 14/1, Matt Kenseth 16/1
