Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Michigan – Heluva! Good 400 (Post Qualifying)
Will Ragan Finally Capture A Victory?
In case you missed practice, or would like to read my Practice Breakdown to see all of the numbers, just click here. You can also compare these post-qualifying predictions to my Preview picks (posted on Wednesday) by clicking here. According to Ryan Rantz, the owner of this site, practice is the most important element when predicting Michigan races. You can read his entire Heluva! Good 400 Scouting Report by clicking here.
Kurt Busch will lead the field to the green Sunday afternoon–for the third week in a row–and the entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were the two drivers to visit victory lane at Michigan last year, and Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Joey Logano all posted top ten finishes in both races here during the 2010 season.
Click HERE for tons of great Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Links
1. Matt Kenseth – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.8 (three wins)
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I have learned–and I’m sure you heard during qualifying if you didn’t already know–that if Matt Kenseth has a good qualifying run, he has a really good car for the race. He finished 5th here in the fall last season, but that is Matt’s only top ten in the last four Michigan races. However, the #17 Ford ended up 15th on the overall average speed chart, which is good for Kenseth. He had the seventh-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and Matt finished 4th at California earlier this season. It looks like the Roush cars are back to being the class of the field this weekend in the “Irish Hills”.
2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.0 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Harvick is the most recent winner at Michigan International Speedway, and by the end of the race tomorrow afternoon, he should be somewhere near the front of the pack. “Happy” was 5th on the average speed chart and had the third-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He has just two top 10s in the past five Michigan races, but don’t let that statistic keep the #29 off your rosters this weekend. Remember who Harvick passed on the last lap for the win earlier this season at Auto Club Speedway–the sister track to Michigan.
3. Greg Biffle – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.3 (two wins)
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The Biff has had some bad luck this year, but he has four top 10s in the past five Michigan races and I think he will make that five in the past six after Sunday. Greg was only 11th on the overall average speed chart, but all of the Roush Fords have speed and could all challenge for the win tomorrow. Biffle won here in 2004 and 2005 and his average career finish in the “Irish Hills” is 12.3, which I expect to improve at the wave of the checkered flag tomorrow.
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.3 (one win)
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m not as high on Junior as I was coming into this race, but I still think he will challenge for a solid top five on Sunday. The #88 Chevrolet wound up 9th on the overall average speed chart and 6th in terms on Happy Hour average speed. As you probably know, Dale Junior’s last win came at this track (back in 2008) and he has two top 10s in the past three races in the “Irish Hills”. He was in the top ten in both practice sessions, so you know this car has speed, but I think it will take a little luck for Little E to end his winless streak this weekend.
5. Carl Edwards – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.7
**Change from my preview: -4 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Don’t let Carl’s engine woes in Pocono convince you to not pick him this weekend: each time the #99 has has finished outside the top 10 this season, Edwards went on to post a top five finish in the following race. I think that will happen once again in the “Irish Hills” on Sunday. He doesn’t start as close to the front as he has for most of this season, but Edwards’ average start at Michigan is 20.7 and his average finish is 6.3. He was 7th on the average speed chart and should post a solid top ten on Sunday (probably a top five).
6. Tony Stewart – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.0
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
SPEED interviewed “Smoke” after his qualifying run on Saturday and he said that the #14 team tried some new things in Happy Hour and “got behind” the other teams, but they got close by the end of the session and should be able to adjust the car on Sunday and have a pretty good run. Stewart was 22nd in overall average speed, but ended up 14th in Happy Hour average speed. He really let his fantasy owners down last week, but Tony should start heating up very soon. Will this be the week? We’ll see, I guess. The last four June races at Michigan have ended with Stewart crossing the line in 5th, 7th, 5th, and 3rd.
7. Brian Vickers – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.4
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Could Vickers prove that his season off didn’t affect him much this weekend with a win? Of course he could, and I think he will run up front all day. Brian has five straight top 10s at Michigan and I expect him to extend that to six straight once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. Both Red Bull Racing Toyotas look fast, and as long as no bad luck bug bites them, they should both have good runs in the Heluva Good! 400. Vickers was 13th on the overall average speed chart.
8. Kurt Busch – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.8
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Never go against a team that is hot, and the #22 team is scorching. The Double Deuce hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the past four Sprint Cup races and has two top 5s in the past three. In practice, they couldn’t get the car comfortable for Busch–which is why he’s ranked 8th–but this Dodge had some speed: Kurt ended up 4th on the overall average speed chart and had the 8th-fastest ten-lap average in Happy Hour. In the last four Michigan races, Kurt has started in the top five twice and ended up in the top 10 in both of those races.
9. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.5 (one win)
**Change from my preview: -7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m not crazy ranking “Five Time” this low. He has made 18 career starts at this track and has started outside of the top ten just five times. In those five races, though, Johnson grabbed just one top 10 finish (a 7th-place effort in 2002 after starting 29th). I could be completely wrong, because the #48 Chevrolet is pretty fast (6th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour), but this team did struggle on the intermediates early on in the year. Johnson will either finish between 9th and 14th or challenge for the win on Sunday.
10. Jeff Gordon – Starts 31st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.0
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m still not completely sold on Jeff Gordon this weekend like other people are. I like drivers coming off of a win, but I can’t overlook how much the #24 team has struggled this season on the intermediate tracks. They didn’t have the best qualifying run, but this Chevrolet looked pretty stout in practice, ending up 14th on the average speed chart and 4th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Gordon’s average finish at Michigan is 11.4, and I think he will finish right around there on Sunday, maybe a little bit better.
11. Kasey Kahne – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.8
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
When one Red Bull Toyota is fast, the other is usually fast as well. As long as nothing breaks on these two cars, I expect both Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers to challenge for top 10s on Sunday afternoon in Michigan (if not a surprise win). Kahne usually practices well, and he did it again on Friday, posting the 8th-fastest overall average speed (and 3rd-best in Happy Hour). His average finish at this track is right around 15th, but I think Kasey should improve that on Sunday.
12. David Ragan – Starts 20th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.3
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I would have Ragan ranked a little higher than this if he didn’t run into the back of Jeff Burton in Happy Hour and sustain some damage to the front end of his Ford. Still, though, I think the #6 will challenge for a top ten on Sunday. David ended up 3rd on the average speed chart and had the fifth fastest ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He still thinks they have a car that could end up in victory lane, but I think a top ten is more likely than a win for Ragan. He finished 11th here last fall after starting 29th.
13. Clint Bowyer – Starts 27th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 17.3
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Like I said in my preview, don’t expect a top five run out of Bowyer at Michigan, but a top 15 isn’t out of the question at all. The past couple weeks it seems like the #33 team really struggles in first practice and then makes some “big gains” in Happy Hour, and this weekend at Michigan was no exception. Clint ended up on the top of the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and was 12th in overall average speed. I think he could grab a top ten, but with only two top 10s in ten starts at this track, I think Bowyer will finish in the teens.
14. Kyle Busch – Starts 24th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.2
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I was complete wrong about Kyle Busch last weekend, but one of these times I will be right. None of the Gibbs cars impressed my very much in practice, and with Logano’s engine problem (and the lingering oil pan issues on all of the teams) they are just a little too risky for me to recommend them this weekend. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if “Rowdy” posted a top ten finish on Sunday, but he has just three here in his twelve starts and the last one came in 2008. Busch’s average finish in the “Irish Hills” is 17.8.
15. Denny Hamlin – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.8
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As I just said, I’m not real high on the Gibbs Toyotas this weekend. I’m especially not very confident in Denny Hamlin because he’s not even getting the finishes he deserves on the tracks that he dominates, so why should he get the finishes at the tracks where he’s not as good? Hamlin’s average finish here is 10.9, and he could very well post a solid top ten on Sunday, but with the way his season is going, I don’t see that happening. The #11 Toyota was 21st on the overall average speed chart.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Heluva Good! 400:
16. A.J. Allmendinger – The Dinger is still my underdog of the week, and while I wasn’t confident enough to rank him in the top fifteen this week, I do think that the #43 Ford could surprise a few people this weekend. A.J. was average in practice–19th on the average speed chart and 11th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour–but he finished 11th and 17th at Michigan last season and posted 19th-place finishes at both Las Vegas and Texas.
17. Mark Martin – Once again Martin looks like a very good option for fantasy racers this weekend. He was sixth in overall average speed, fastest in Happy Hour average speed, and had the second best ten-lap average in that final practice session. Don’t let that fool you, though–the #5 Chevrolet might sneek into the high teens on Sunday, but we all know that a finish outside of the top 15 is the most likely scenario for Mark Martin.
18. Trevor Bayne – This kid just continues to impress me, but I’m not sold on him being the next best thing yet. His Ford definitely has power (remember the Daytona 500), and he hasn’t fared too bad in Sprint Cup races at intermediate tracks: Trevor finished 17th in his first career start at Texas last year and brought the Wood Brothers car home in the top 20 at Las Vegas and Texas earlier this season. Bayne also topped the average speed chart, for what that’s worth.
19. Brad Keselowski – His Penske teammate seems to be fast to me, and Keselowski isn’t to shabby, either. BK ended up 15th on the average speed chart and in Happy Hour the “Blue Deuce” had the tenth-fastest ten-lap average. Brad’s best finish here is 24th but I think with the way this entire team is running recently, he could easily finish better than that on Sunday.
20. David Reutimann – These are Reutty’s favorite types of tracks, but he has been nothing but disappointing during this 2011 season. He starts up front, but he won’t end up there unless this race is rain-shortened or they gamble big time at the end. The #00 was 27th in overall average speed and was 14th on the Happy Hour ten-lap average chart. Don’t be fooled by David’s great qualifying run.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Heluva Good! 400:
Jeff Burton – In case you didn’t see practice or didn’t read my Practice Breakdown, Burton got some somewhat major damage to the back end of his race car–the same one Harvick won with here last season–thanks to David Ragan. But even before that, Jeff couldn’t find speed and wasn’t impressive at all, so the damage is just the nail in the coffin this week for the #31 team.
Ryan Newman – “The Rocketman” can’t really find speed (once again) in his Chevy this weekend, and the fact that he has only one top 20 in the past six Michigan races makes me a little leery of Newman. He really surprised me earlier this season on the intermediates, but that was then and this is now. I’m sticking with “Avoid Ryan Newman” at Michigan on Sunday.
Bobby Labonte – Some people may be looking at the #47 as a “start saver” this race, but wait another week for that. At best, Labonte will end up in the high 20’s on Sunday, but a finish around 30th is much more likely for this team. They have been a mid-to-late 20’s team all season, and that won’t change this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex finished 8th at Michigan last fall, but I don’t see anything close to that happening on Sunday. The NAPA team couldn’t find speed in either practice session and I think it will take some major luck for Martin to finish around his career average at this track this weekend–which is 16.5.
Jamie McMurray – No explanation needed. He will drop like a rock from his 14th-place starting spot.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jimmie Johnson, Darkhorse – David Ragan
Yahoo!: A-List: Kevin Harvick, B-List: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. & Brian Vickers, C-List: Trevor Bayne
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kasey Kahne, David Ragan, Brian Vickers
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Matt Kenseth, Brian Vickers, Kasey Kahne
