Kentucky Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Before you get to far in check out my post from Sunday about how you should approach this race from a fantasy NASCAR perspective

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch had the field covered at Kansas. His driver rating was by far the best (135.0) and he led 152 laps. Also at Kansas he never ran below 11th and his average running position was 3rd. If qualifying points matter to you don’t forget Kurt Busch was the pole winner at Kansas. At Michigan Busch finished 10th and had an average running position of 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is the Michigan winner and at Kansas he finished 3rd. I really believe studying these two tracks is the way to approach the the inaugural running of the Kentucky Quaker State 400. If a driver is good in both of these races then they’ll be good at Kentucky. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards was strong at both Michigan and Kansas. At both venues in recent weeks he finished 5th. At Kansas his average running position was fourth and he was the second highest finisher who had to pit for gas in the closing laps of the race. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Matt Kenseth – When it comes to any intermediate track it’s hard not to like Kenseth. From a Kentucky Insider I hear this track is Kansas with Texas bumps. Kenseth won at Texas and at Kansas he finished sixth and had an 8th place average running position. (Yahoo A Driver)

Tony Stewart – The 14 team has had many disappointments this season but he’s been particularly strong on intermediate tracks. Today I used FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com’s stats wizard and between Kansas and Michigan (recent races) his combined loop data stats are impressive. His average running position is 8th and he only raced inside the top fifteen for 90.5 percent of the laps run. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Kentucky Speedway is very similar to Kansas. The main difference is that Kentucky is a little bit more flat. A month ago Jeff Gordon finished first at Kansas among the drivers who had to pit at the end of the race. Also don’t forget the last time NASCAR visited a track for the first time Jeff Gordon was the winner. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Busch was been strong all season long on intermediate tracks. In recent races he was a top ten car at Kansas but he had to pit and at Michigan he finished 3rd. His average running position in both of these races is a combined 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jimmie Johnson – In recent intermediate track races Johnson has been about a 5th through 10th place car (excluding Michigan). At Kentucky I think he’ll fall somewhere in that range. One benefit for the 48 team is that their smart and they know how to adjust their car at night time. (Yahoo A Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Greg Biffle – Biffle is at his best on intermediate tracks. Because it’s his strength I really don’t see any reason to be concerned. Since Texas this team has been really good on intermediate tracks, but their still one tier below the elites. At the conventional intermediate tracks since Texas he’s led in nearly every race and has a 106.5 driver rating. (By saying conventional intermediate tracks I am saying Texas, Charlotte, Kansas and Michigan). Greg Biffle participated in the Good Year tire testing at Kentucky. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has proven himself to be a quick study at new tracks. He won the inaugural race at Chicagoland a decade ago. Since 2010 Harvick has ranked among the best in the series on this style of track. Last season he won at Michigan and earlier this year he won at Auto Club Speedway. At Kansas Harvick finished 11th but had a 8th place average running position. (Yahoo A Driver)

Ryan Newman – On intermediate tracks this year Newman’s consistently finished somewhere between 5th and 15th. In the most recent intermediate track race he finished 6th at Michigan. At Kansas he finished sixth but his average running position was 23rd. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – As I mentioned earlier a Kentucky insider told me this track is Kansas with Texas bumps. If that’s the case it should be hard going wrong picking Clint Bowyer because he finished second at Texas. He wasn’t the best at Kansas this year but he typically performs well at that venue. (Yahoo B Driver)

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B = A Tier Below The Good Picks

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior has been pretty lack luster in his last two intermediate track performances. His Kansas second place finish was fools gold and at Michigan he was about a 20th place car. Between the two races he only was in the top fifteen for 42.3 percent of the laps run. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – If you need a solid driver this week and want to save picks in an allocation league take Vickers. On intermediate tracks this year he has top ten finishes at Auto Club Speedway, Las Vegas, and Michigan. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kasey Kahne – In the last three races Kahne has been good but he hasn’t been able to capitalize. At Michigan Kahne was good but he ran out of gas (AKA, don’t look at his stats). At Kansas he finished 14th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – RCR cars for the most part were lacking something at Kansas. But in the next intermediate race they performed better. At Michigan Menard had his best race of the season and finished 4th. At no point in the race did he ever race outside the top fifteen. His average running position was 8.3. (Yahoo C Driver)

Joey Logano – Logano has won the last three Nationwide series races at Kentucky but I don’t remember Jimmie Johnson being in any of those. Logano was also involved in the tire test at Kentucky. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

David Ragan –  In the two given tracks I told you to study Ragan’s magic number is 17, like the number of the guy who pushed him to the win at Daytona. Kansas and Michigan combined stats wise Ragan had an average finish of 17th, had a mid race average running position of 17th, and had a 17th for total average running position. (Yahoo C Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – AJ has been all over the board finish position wise on intermediate tracks this year. He’s had some really good days and some bad days. I think you should expect a mid teens finish out of him Saturday night. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski won at Kansas a month ago on fuel mileage. Did he actually have the best car though? Nope, that was an easy one. His average running position was 12th and his other loop data numbers indicate he was about a 10th place car (mid race = 10th, 27 laps to go = 7th). (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Treux Jr. – Truex is usually either a hero or a zero driver. Once again I used FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com’s stats wizard tool and because of his hero or zero nature I gave him a bigger sample size of races to look at. In the wizard I put in the last two races at Michigan, last two at Auto Club Speedway, last two at Kansas, and last at Chicagoland. His average mid race running position in all of these races was 11th (good), his average running position was 14th (sliding a little bit) and his average finish was 18th (not so good). (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Mark Martin – At Michigan Martin finished 9th but approach using him with caution. In the two races I’ve been emphasizing you should study he only raced inside the top fifteen for 41.5% of the laps run. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya had success early in the season at intermediate tracks but it seems like since Auto Club he’s taken two steps back. In the first two intermediate races of the season his avg. running position was 6.8. Since then his avg. running position at typical intermediate tracks (excluding Darlington and Dover) is 18.5 and not once in an individual race was it below 15th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – Going back to Darlington Ambrose has only finished in the top fifteen at Sonoma and Pocono. Earlier this season he looked more promising on intermediate tracks. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – I think Reutimann has some (not saying a lot) sleeper potential this week. Last season he won at Chicagoland which is the sister track of Kansas. However on the track this season he’s only finished in the top ten once. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Jamie McMurray – Jmac has really struggled on intermediate tracks this year compared to last. In the six conventional intermediate tracks NASCAR visited this year McMurray has an average running position of 24th and he’s led a grand total of 5 laps (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Burton – No need to look at loop data or anything pertaining to Jeff Burton. The answer is no. Burton has finished 20th or worse the last six races. (Yahoo B Driver)