Scouting Report: New Hampshire Lenox Industrial Tools 301
How to make an informed pick at New Hampshire:
1) Study past races at New Hampshire, NASCAR visits this venue plenty of times so there’s an abundant amount of fantasy data available. Things may change but because this is a drivers track past history is especially important here.
2) Studying recent similar track results should be second on your list in terms of making a good fantasy pick for New Hampshire. The tracks I would recommend you study are Phoenix and Richmond. Back in Kurt Busch’s final year at Roush Fenway Racing he won at Richmond and because these tracks are similar to each other his chassis returned to the track the following week and was raced by Mark Martin. This of course happened back in the “old car” days so it’s a testament about how similar these tracks are to each other.
3) Practice has a role in terms of making fantasy picks every week. This week if you watch practice make sure you focus on selecting drivers who are strong on long runs. At New Hampshire a fuel window should be around ~80 laps, so a long run will truly be a long run on Sunday.
4) Track position has been very important all year long so picking a driver who starts up front is always a plus. However the good teams always get to the front here. They may not get to the front by passing tons of cars but they’ll get to the front through pit strategy.
5) One thing I really wouldn’t focus on this week is studying correlations between New Hampshire and Martinsville. You can do it if you believe there similar, but I’m going to pass on that. New Hampshire is twice as large. That’s a big deal and as a result I’m leaving Martinsville out of my equation this week. Fantasy wise I view Martinsville is a unique track. If you really want to hang on to the theory their similar study the differences between how good Kurt Busch is at New Hampshire and how lack luster he is at Martinsville.
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Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Industrial Tools 301:
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin hasn’t led a lot of laps at New Hampshire but beyond that he’s as good as gold this week. He has one win and an impressive 7.6 average finish. In ten starts Hamlin has never finished outside the top fifteen.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has one win at New Hampshire and he’ll certainly be looking like the driver to beat heading into the weekend. What I really like about Kyle Busch is how strong he’s been on similar tracks this season. At Phoenix he finished second to Jeff Gordon and at Richmond he absolutely dominated. Some say Martinsville is a similar track (I have my disagreements here) and he finished 3rd there.
Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch has an excellent record at New Hampshire. Last fall he finished 13th but in the five preceding races he finished inside the top six every race. Kurt has three wins at New Hampshire.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is the defending champion of this race and he’ll be tough to beat in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Last year Johnson had the third best driver rating (109.45) in both combined New Hampshire races.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick finished 5th in both races last season. In 2006 he won the Chase opening race at New Hampshire and led 196 laps. Some more positives about Harvick is that he finished 4th at Phoenix and won at Martinsville.
To see the rest of my rankings check out my NEW HAMPSHIRE FANTASY PREVIEW
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last three races:
1)Kyle Busch 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Kurt Busch 4)Matt Kenseth 5)Joey Logano 6)Jimmie Johnson 7)Brad Keselowski 8)Kevin Harvick 9)David Ragan 10)Kasey Kahne
VegasInsider.com Odds to win at New Hampshire:
Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Harvick 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Carl Edwards 9/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Kurt Busch 10/1, Greg Biffle 12/1, Clint Bowyer 14/1, Matt Kenseth 15/1
