2011 Mid Season NASCAR Chase Predictions
Book it, their in:
Carl Edwards – Even though Carl Edwards only has one win his 82 point lead over 11th is huge. It’s nearly a full two race lead over the cut off points position. Looking forward at the schedule there’s no reason to believe he’ll miss the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson – Five time champion Jimmie Johnson is a lock to be in the Chase for number six. Even with his consistent frustration with the 48 crew he is second in the points.
Kurt Busch – If the Chase were the last ten races run Kurt Busch would be your champion. With how good this teams been recently it’s unfathomable he’ll miss the Chase. Looking ahead there’s lots of favorable tracks coming up for him.
Kevin Harvick – With three wins I bet he could miss four races and still make the Chase. As long as he’s in the top twenty he’s a lock. His Chase certainty is as good as it gets.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is sitting pretty just like Kevin Harvick. All that he has to do is stick in the top twenty and he’s as good as gold.
Matt Kenseth – Mr.Consistent has two wins and a 1.5 race point lead over the 11th position. Looking forward he has some good tracks coming up but also a few speed bumps.
Jeff Gordon – Over the last ten races only Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth have accumulated more points than Gordon. His two wins all but assure he’ll be making a Chase appearance this season.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is currently 10th in points but his one win provides sufficient backup to ensuring he’ll make a Chase appearance. What else further insures his Chase chances are some winnable tracks left in the remaining regular season. Denny Hamlin has never missed the Chase since he started driving full time in 2006.
Tony Stewart – Currently he’s tied with Denny Hamlin in points but I think he can make the Chase both points wise and win wise.
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Bubble drivers:
Ryan Newman – Newman won at New Hampshire and is currently sitting 8th in the standings. I think a couple of the upcoming races could hit him hard points wise. He still has his win to fall back on but there’s potential some of the guys currently not in might get some wins.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior is currently sitting 9th in the points but he’s only 7 points ahead of Tony Stewart who is 11th. He’s in big trouble points wise. His 15th place finish at New Hampshire was his best since Pocono. Some real potential trouble races are looming ahead for him (Indy, Michigan, and Watkins Glen).
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has never been a big winner so I don’t see him getting any wins between now and Richmond. He needs to get into the Chase based on points. I think his Chase scenario lies in Newman falling out of the top ten and him racing his way in on points.
David Ragan – Ragan is currently in the Chase based on his win at Daytona. Currently he’s the only driver with a win who’s between 11th and 20th in the points. Ragan’s best chance of the making the Chase is for the drivers who are currently in the top ten to win the remaining races. If that happens then he’s in.
Juan Pablo Montoya – There’s some upcoming races that Montoya has a real chance of winning at, particularly Indy and Watkins Glen. Montoya is currently 17th in points.
Not Gonna Happen:
Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne’s going to need wins to be racing in the Chase this season. I just don’t see it happening. When Kasey Kahne has good cars he’s capable of winning but if somethings wrong he has zero percent chance of winning. I think there’s something wrong with his cars because at Kentucky he complained over his radio of constantly having vibrations every week.
Greg Biffle – I think his Chase chances are in serious jeopardy. There’s only a handful of races left and at New Hampshire he got a new crew chief unexpectedly. Getting wins will be tough under his current scenario.
Brad Keselowski – Brad has one win but I don’t see him making the Chase. I think that even if he does race his way in the top twenty he still won’t be eligible for a wild card spot because there will be winning drivers higher in the points then him that will claim spots 11 and 12.
