Scouting Report: Pure Michigan 400
How to make an informed fantasy pick at Michigan:
- Practice is by far the most important element this weekend in terms of making a informed fantasy pick for the Pure Michigan 400. If a driver struggles during Happy Hour at Michigan then the smart thing to do is look for someone else to pick. Drivers can’t overcome bad practice sessions and expect to get a good finish at Michigan.
- Look back at what happened the first time the series visited Michigan this year. I still like Happy more though.
- In term of evaluating similar tracks this weekend the two that you really want to look back to are Auto Club Speedway and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway is Michigan’s sister track. Both are 2.0 mile tracks but the banking is a little bit steeper at Michigan. Kansas is a 1.5 mile track which is essentially a mini-Michigan.
- Qualifying at Michigan is overrated. All that it’s good for is pit selection. If you’re making your fantasy picks based on pit selection then your probably making it a little bit harder than it needs to be. It’s a sign that you’re an expert because your complicating simplicity.
Drivers to watch in the Pure Michigan 400
Kyle Busch – Busch finished third earlier this season at Michigan Speedway. His driver rating was the second highest (124.3) and he led the second most laps (59). Another thing I really like about Busch is how strong he performed at Auto Club Speedway in March. In that race he led 151 laps, had an average running position of 2nd, and had the best driver rating by far (143.4).
Carl Edwards – Edwards will be tough to beat in the Pure Michigan 400 especially now that his contract distraction is out of the way. Edwards has always been successful at Michigan and only once in fourteen races has he finished lower than 12th. Edwards has two wins at Michigan and earlier this season he finished 5th. His average finish here is 6.2 (best in series).
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a two-time winner at Michigan and earlier this season he finished second. He was very impressive and had the highest driver rating (130.1). His average running position was 4th and he led 17 laps. Michigan is a Roush track and he’s one my favorite heading into the weekend.
Jeff Gordon – Gordon finished 17th earlier in the year but I wouldn’t be worried about picking him. Since Kansas it’s his only finish worse than 13th. Because of that I consider it an irregularity and not something that should be to concerning. In the last couple of years he’s had lots of success at 2.0 mile tracks.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick is the defending champion of the August race at Michigan. Last year he held off Denny Hamlin and avoided a Toyota sweep at GM’s home track. Harvick is as good as they come on tracks where the high line around the track comes into play. You also can’t discount the fact that RCR cars get good horsepower and good fuel mileage when needed. In March Harvick won at Michigan’s sister track (Auto Club) and out dueled Jimmie Johnson for the win.
To see the rest of my rankings check out my Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Preview
VegasInsider.com odds to win the Pure Michigan:
Denny Hamlin 4/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Kyle Busch 7/1, Tony Stewart 8/1, Kevin Harvick 9/1, Kurt Busch 9/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Carl Edwards 12/1, Brad Keselowski 18/1
Racing4Glory.com : Michigan Loop Data Ebook
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last three races:
Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Paul Menard
