Bristol Irwin Tools Night Race Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid PackProjections

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Kyle Busch – There’s not a better pick you can make this week for the Irwin Tools Night Race then Kyle Busch. He’s won four out of the last five races at Bristol and in the COT era he’s won more than half the races (5/9). In the last five races here his average finish is 3rd, he’s led 861 laps, and he has an impressive 125.16 driver rating. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is the only driver not named Kyle Busch who has won here recently. In the last five races at Bristol there’s no question Jimmie Johnson is the clear second fiddle driver to Kyle Busch. Last season he finished 35th but that was due to a wreck with Montoya. His other finishes in the last five races are 3rd, 8th, 1st, and 3rd. Also in the last five races Johnson has led +84 laps every race for a grand total of 618. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – I’ve liked Matt Kenseth at Bristol for a long time. He’s won here multiple times and Roush cars have been extremely strong here in recent races. In the last four Bristol races he’s finished 10th, 5th, 10th and 4th. Another good thing about Matt Kenseth is that no one’s mad at him. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards has won the Bristol night race twice. In his most recent win he wasn’t afraid to nudge Kyle out of the lead. In the spring race this year he finished second and led 18 laps. He never ran lower than 13th and his average running position was 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – Before Kyle Busch started dominating Bristol Kurt Busch was the king here. He’s a five time Bristol winner but his most recent win was back in 2006 (before track reconfiguration and the COT). He’s still a very attractive fantasy pick for Bristol though. In the last four races he’s finished 7th, 9th, 3rd and 7th. In the spring 2010 race he led 278 laps. He should’ve won but in a late restart he was in the slow lane and Jimmie Johnson had his lucky horseshoe. (Yahoo A Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Ryan Newman – Early in his career Bristol was one of the last places you would want to pick Newman. Now he’s an extremely consistent driver who’s a pretty safe pick at the fastest half mile in the world. Newman has finished in the top ten in five out of the last six races at Bristol. In the race earlier this season Newman finished 10th and led 26 laps. (Yahoo B Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Bristol is a great track for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Since 2004 his average finish (8.5) is the best in the series. Even in his recent down years fantasy players still were treated to a productive driver. In 2004 Dale Jr. won the night race. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Happy is a former winner and in the race earlier this season he finished 6th and had an average running position of 7th. He led 37 laps and had the fourth best driver rating (115.1). Trend wise Harvick had more success before Bristol was reconfigured. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Since Bristol was reconfigured Jeff Gordon has found little success at the Colosseum of NASCAR. He has two top tens and many finishes just outside the top ten. Since it was reconfigured his average finish is 12.6. It’s a respectable number but I think fantasy racers need to aim a little higher. (Yahoo A Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has been very impressive since his injury. He’s only raced at Bristol three times and all of his finishes resulted in a teens finish. With his teammates success at Bristol look for Brad K to be more competitive Saturday night. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – In the last four Bristol races Biffle has finished 4th twice and 8th twice. In many ways it’s surprising Biffle has never visited victory lane at the Bristol bullring. In five of his 11 races at Bristol he’s led 58 laps or more. Since the track was reconfigured he’s only finished worse than 11th once and that was because of an engine failure. (Yahoo A Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is the best driver who never won at Bristol. He should’ve won the first COT race at Bristol but Joe Gibbs cars were having fuel issues that day. In recent races things have been bad for Hamlin but if you erase recent history he’s a top five driver at Bristol. His momentum scares me though. (Yahoo A Driver)

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B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Kasey Kahne – The track reconfiguration has really benefited Kahne. Since it was changed Kahne has finished in the top ten in 5 of the last eight races. In March Kahne finished 9th. At mid race he was in 4th and his average running position was 7th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – In three out of the last four races at Bristol Bowyer has finished outside the top twenty. In this race last year Bowyer finished 4th. In 2007 and 2008 Bowyer never finished worse than 8th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Tony Stewart – I’m not very high on Tony Stewart this week. Stewart won here in 2001 but that was a decade ago. In recent races he’s really struggled here. In the last five races at Bristol he finished second once but all of his other finishes are 17th or worse. Since the track was reconfigured he has two top tens and three top fifteens in seven races.(Yahoo A Driver)

Mark Martin – Many of Martin’s best performances have come on shorter skill ovals this year. I would expect a low sub top ten finish out of him at Bristol. Earlier this year he finished 12th. His other finishes on short skill ovals are 13th at Phoenix, 10th at Martinsville, and 14th at Richmond. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has had some success at Bristol in his short career. The Watkins Glen winner finished in the top ten in his first two starts at this half mile. In the summer 2009 race he was very impressive and finished 3rd. Earlier this year he finished 15th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Burton – Burton is no longer top ten less in 2011 and he’s had a fair amount of success in the last half decade at Bristol. Going back to 2004 Burton has one win and two second place finishes. It is important to note though that he typically performs better in the spring race then he does in the August race. In the race earlier this year he finished 20th. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Last year in the night race David Reutimann finished second. However his average finish is 20.6 and his next best finish in seven starts is 12th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Treux Jr. – Truex has had some good recent runs at Bristol but no good finishes to show for it. That’s how Truex works as a fantasy driver. This spring he led 63 laps and finished 17th. His best finish here is 11th. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Paul Menard – Menard was very impressive this spring and finished 5th. He’s raced here eight times and that’s his lone top fifteen finish at the fastest half mile in the world. I know I’ll be passing on him this week. (Yahoo C Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya has two top tens at Bristol but his 19.3 average finish is a pretty fair representation of what you should expect. Beyond his two top tens all of his other finishes are 15th or worse. In the race earlier this year he finished 24th and he only raced in the top 15 for 26% of the race. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = Not Gonna Pick Him

Jamie McMurray – Once again why pick him? He finished 3rd last year but Earnhard -Ganassi cars simply aren’t performing at the same level this year. Momentum wise he’s only finished higher than 15th once since Darlington. That’s a very serious problem to me. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – In 2008 Ragan (his really good year) finished 10th (best finish). This spring he finished 16th which is 8 positions better than his 24.0 average finish. 16th was also his average running position. Roush cars have been really good here lately so perhaps the note sharing might drip down to him this week. (Yahoo C Driver)

Joey Logano – Don’t go with Logano this week. His 28.0 average finish should scare you off immediately. He’s had some qualifying success (1 pole, 1 third place start) but the closest he’s finished to the front is two laps down. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – Out of all the drivers I rank every week AJ has the worst average finish (30th). He’s also a pretty poor qualifier (25th avg start). In 2007 he made his Sprint Cup debut here and finished 40th. His best finish ever at Bristol is 16th. In the night race his best finish is 31st. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – There’s nothing to like about Brian Vickers this week. He’s only led 1 lap and he’s never finished in the top ten in thirteen starts. Brian Vickers is not only a poor finisher at Bristol (25th avg finish) but he’s also a poor qualifier (23rd avg starting position). (Yahoo B Driver)