Scouting Report: Bristol Irwin Tools Night Race
Five Drivers to watch at Bristol:
Kyle Busch – There’s not a better pick you can make this week for the Irwin Tools Night Race then Kyle Busch. He’s won four out of the last five races at Bristol and in the COT era he’s won more than half the races (5/9). In the last five races here his average finish is 3rd, he’s led 861 laps, and he has an impressive 125.16 driver rating.
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is the only driver not named Kyle Busch who has won here recently. In the last five races at Bristol there’s no question Jimmie Johnson is the clear second fiddle driver to Kyle Busch. Last season he finished 35th but that was due to a wreck with Montoya. His other finishes in the last five races are 3rd, 8th, 1st, and 3rd. Also in the last five races Johnson has led +84 laps every race for a grand total of 618.
Matt Kenseth – I’ve liked Matt Kenseth at Bristol for a long time. He’s won here multiple times and Roush cars have been extremely strong here in recent races. In the last four Bristol races he’s finished 10th, 5th, 10th and 4th. Another good thing about Matt Kenseth is that no one’s mad at him.
Carl Edwards – Edwards has won the Bristol night race twice. In his most recent win he wasn’t afraid to nudge Kyle out of the lead. In the spring race this year he finished second and led 18 laps. He never ran lower than 13th and his average running position was 5th.
Kurt Busch – Before Kyle Busch started dominating Bristol Kurt Busch was the king here. He’s a five time Bristol winner but his most recent win was back in 2006 (before track reconfiguration and the COT). He’s still a very attractive fantasy pick for Bristol though. In the last four races he’s finished 7th, 9th, 3rd and 7th. In the spring 2010 race he led 278 laps. He should’ve won but in a late restart he was in the slow lane and Jimmie Johnson had his lucky horseshoe.
To see the rest of my rankings check out my Bristol Fantasy Preview
How to make an informed fantasy pick at Bristol
1) Focus on studying the races dating back to the summer 2007 night race. That was the first race on the reconfigured Bristol Motor Speedway. Prior stats before that date are somewhat irrelevant because the old Bristol and the new Bristol race much differently.
2) Since Bristol is a “skill” track studying average finishes is a quick short cut to having a successful fantasy week. Average finishes at skill tracks hold their value.
3) Happy Hour at Bristol will be important. Bristol isn’t a crash up derby anymore and I expect to see green flag pit stops.
4) Qualifying doesn’t hold the value it used to at Bristol. In Kyle Busch’s four most recent wins he never started better than 12th. Bristol in many ways now is a mini intermediate track because drivers can simply change lanes and get around another driver.
5) Drivers who’ve had lots of negative momentum lately should be avoided as a safety precaution. As I said this track isn’t a crash up derby anymore but it’s certainly no place for a driver to expect his negative fortunes to turn around.
VegasInsider.com Bristol Odds:
Kyle Busch 7/2, Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Denny Hamlin 9/1, Kevin Harvick 10/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Greg Biffle 10/1, Matt Kenseth 12/1, Jeff Gordon 14/1, Kurt Busch 14/1
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
Pre Race Loop Data Book, Drivers stats over the last five races at Bristol, Past Race Winners, Past Pole Winners
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver momentum over the last five races:
1)Ryan Newman 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Jimmie Johnson 4)Brad Keselowski 5)Kyle Busch 6)Tony Stewart 7)Matt Kenseth 8)Clint Bowyer 9)Martin Truex Jr. 10)Dale Earnhardt Jr.
