Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Bristol 2 – Irwin Tools Night Race (Post Qualifying)
Will Kyle Busch Finally Be De-Throned At Bristol?
My favorite race of the year is Saturday night, and even though driver’s tempers can ruin your rosters quickly at this half-mile track, the Bristol races are usually very good weeks to pick some underdogs and take a chance. Ryan Newman grabbed the pole for the Irwin Tools Night Race in qualifying with Carl Edwards grabbing his third straight front row start in Thunder Valley. The entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here. I think starting position is very important at these short tracks, but if you have a fast car, you can make your way through the field (albeit a little slower than other weeks). To check out my Practice Breakdown from earlier, just click here. You can find practice speeds, ten-lap averages, and overall average speed for each driver in that article.
Possible Start and Parks:
Joe Nemechek (starts 28th—may go to the back to get out of the way)
David Stremme (starts 31st—see above)
Michael McDowell (starts 32nd–see above)
J.J. Yeley (starts 36th)
Robby Gordon (starts 39th—I will guarantee he is S&P)
Pick Six Fantasy NASCAR Game: How good are you at predicting the results of each race? I’m holding a FREE fantasy NASCAR game for anyone interested, and someone is guaranteed to win money. All you have to do is guess the top six finishers of each race, and they don’t even have to be in order! Click here to post your Pick Six picks for the Irwin Tools Night Race. The pot is at $80.62 this week. Good luck!
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Irwin Tools Night Race:
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.1 (five wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 592 (same from last Bristol race where he led 164 laps and finished 3rd)**
**Change from my preview: +1 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If Shrub’s streak is going to end, this is going to be the guy to do it. Johnson has led at least 84 laps in each of the last five Bristol races and has four top 10s in that span as well (including a win in 2010). He would have top 10s in all five of those races but contact with Juan Montoya last August delegated “The Champ” to a 35th-place finish. This weekend, Johnson is very happy with his race car and was in the top 3 in both of the ten-lap average charts. He also ended up 4th on the average speed chart. This team is due for a win, and will get one before this year’s Chase starts–and I think it will come on Saturday night.
2. Kyle Busch – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.9 (three wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 277 (same from last Bristol race where he led 153 laps and won the race)**
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
In case you are worried about Kyle Busch’s sub-par practice speeds, don’t worry: even he admits that it’s like that most of the time when the series stops in Thunder Valley. His average start is 20.2 here (compared to an average finish of 8.7) so don’t worry about his mid-pack starting spot, either: Busch will be up front before the 100 lap mark. As you know by now, Rowdy is the king of this place lately, with four wins in the last five races and almost 900 laps led in that span. He will be fighting for the win, that’s no doubt, but I just feel like it’s time for a new face in victory lane. Some people are worried that Kevin Harvick will get revenge on Busch this weekend, but for that to happen, the #29 will have to be close to the #18, and that’s going to be impossible unless Busch is putting that Chevy a lap down. I wouldn’t worry about that.
3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.4 (two wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 751 (same from June Pocono race where finished 8th)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I say it every time Matt Kenseth starts up front: he has a good car. This is actually his best qualifying effort since he won the pole here in 2005 and went on to simply dominate the race, leading 415 of the 500 laps en route to the victory. Matt had the 7th-best ten-lap average during the first practice and is on a streak of four-straight top 10s at the world’s fastest half-mile. In twenty-three career starts at Bristol, Kenseth has just five finishes outside of the top 15. Note: don’t expect him to lead many laps Saturday night. He hasn’t led at Bristol since 2006.
4. Mark Martin – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.8 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 5-625 (same from last Bristol race where he finished 12th and from the May Dover race where he finished 2nd)**
**Change from my preview: +7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I pretty much wrote Mark Martin off earlier this year when he was disappointing fantasy owners week in and week out. After last week’s back-up of practice speeds, I’m starting to believe (although cautiously) that Martin and this team may be trying to finish this season with respect. Martin was the fastest (in terms of average speed) over the two practice sessions on Friday and will start 5th for the Irwin Tools Night Race on Saturday. He finished 12th here in March and I may be jumping the gun here with this ranking, but then again I may be spot on. I guess we’ll find out. He seems to have the car to back up the qualifying effort.
5. Carl Edwards – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.2
**Chassis selection: no. 739 (same from June Michigan race where he led 30 laps and finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This marks the third-straight Bristol race that Cousin Carl will start on the front row, but in the last two he has led a total of 18 laps, which is concerning. The #99 Ford was 3rd on the average speed chart, but only 73 laps were ran with it, which is a lot lower than other teams but normal of Edwards this year. He was 5th on the ten-lap average chart in first practice, and the fact that Carl hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the last eleven Bristol races is great. However, I’m not too excited about this team’s recent momentum I thought they spent a little too much time working on qualifying in the two practice sessions Friday. Edwards said he learned a lot in the Nationwide race, though, and a good run is just what the doctor ordered for this team. I don’t see the #99 in victory lane when it’s all said and done, though.
6. Ryan Newman – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.3
**Chassis selection: no. 39-506 (same from May Darlington race where he led 28 laps and finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I had no idea that “The Rocketman” was the hottest driver on the circuit over the last five races, but the numbers don’t lie. Newman started the weekend off pretty good, coming in 9th on the ten-lap average chart during first practice and 8th on the chart in Happy Hour. He then went on to win the pole for Saturday’s race, which is his third pole at the world’s fastest half-mile. Newman has five top 10s in the last six Bristol races, but none of those were top 5s. I do think he will add another top 10 to his record on Saturday, but I just can’t see him finishing in the top 5 when it’s all said and done, although he has finished 5th in two of the last three Sprint Cup races. Ryan had the third-best average finish (9.0) in the last five races in Thunder Valley.
7. Brad Keselowski – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.5 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 736 (same from June Pocono race where he finished 23rd)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Although this team is peaking at an excellent time to make the Chase, for any of you out there thinking Brad Keselowski has an outside shot at the title this year, remember this: runs like this always fizzle out. That being said, I don’t see that happening this weekend. BK has been decent in his three starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, notching finishes of 13th, 19th, and 18th, but you should know by now to throw history out the window with this kid while he’s on this little hot streak. Keselowski starts 8th, which is by far his best qualifying effort here, and he had the best ten-lap average in first practice. He also ended up 2nd on the average speed chart despite running the most laps of anyone in the top ten. Looking for a sleeper for the win? For the third or fourth week in a row, look no further than the Blue Deuce.
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.8 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 88-657 (same from June Kansas race where he finished 2nd)**
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I like to believe that drivers perform their best when a Chase berth is on the line, and Junior should be no exception this weekend in Bristol. He starts 22nd, but he hasn’t started better than 18th in his last four starts here and has two top 10s and a worst finish of 13th to his credit. In terms of average speed, Earnhardt ranked 6th on the chart, and he had the 4th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. The #88 Chevrolet has just one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races but this team also hasn’t finished worse than 16th in that span. If Junior wants to hold steady in the points standings, he’s going to need to get his thirteenth top 10 at Bristol, and unless he gets caught up in a wreck Saturday night, I see NASCAR’s most popular driver doing just that.
9. Paul Menard – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy C Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.5 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 356 (same from July Kentucky race where he finished 24th)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Alright, Paul, here’s your chance to redeem yourself. As you may or not remember from the Bristol race earlier this season, Menard started 4th after ending up 21st on the average speed chart. He went on to lead 35 laps and get his first top 10 finish in his career at this track (5th). Fast forward to this weekend. The #27 Chevrolet will start 7th after ending up 12th on the average speed chart. Do I think Menard will get a second-straight top 5 at the Bull Ring? No, but a top 10 is likely as long as he can keep his fenders clean. Paul was 6th in terms of ten-lap average in first practice.
10. Jeff Gordon – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.6
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: -6 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m not sure what to think of Jeff Gordon this week. I still hold momentum high up, and he’s been great for the last two months (worst finish of 13th since mid-June) but nothing really stood out to me about this Chevrolet except for the qualifying effort (4th). Gordon ended up 16th on the average speed chart but didn’t run ten consecutive laps in first practice despite making 58 circuits. However, he did in Happy Hour and ended up 13th on the ten-lap average chart. Jeff has five wins at The Bull Ring but has no top 10s in the last four races here. I think that streak ends on Saturday night, but if for some reason he doesn’t, expect the #24 Chevrolet to end up right outside of it.
11. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.1
**Chassis selection: no. PRS-738 (same from June Pocono race where he started on the pole and led 37laps before finishing 2nd)**
**Change from my preview: -6 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The elder Busch brother ended up 5th on the average speed chart, but he ran only 67 laps total in the “Double Deuce” over the two practice sessions on Friday, which was the lowest amount of any driver that was locked in the race besides Dave Blaney. However, Kurt’s teammate was wickedly and consistently fast through both sessions, and Busch will start in 10th once the green flag waves Saturday night. He used to be the master of this track, with four wins in five races from 2002 to 2004, and he’s still very good here: Kurt has four-straight top 10s at The Bull Ring and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 here since early 2007. Don’t expect that to change this weekend.
12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 16th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.2 15.1 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 340 (same from April Martinsville race (91 laps led and 9th-place finish) and April Richmond race (18 laps led and 6th-place finish)**
**Change from my preview: +8 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As I said before, it seems like drivers are at their best when a Chase berth is on the line, and Bowyer is going to need a win (or two) in the next three races to make that happen. Will he get his first career victory at Bristol this weekend? I doubt it, but a solid top 15 isn’t out of the question. He won’t have as many cars to pass as last weekend, as Clint rolls off the grid in 16th, but he has just one top 10 in the last five Bristol races and I think it will take some strategy from this team to grab one Saturday night. Bowyer ended up 11th on the ten-lap average chart during first practice and 9th on the overall average speed chart.
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 17.3
**Chassis selection: no. 1004 (same from July Kentucky race where he finished 36th after an engine failure)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
When Jeff Burton’s spotter talks, I listen. He first tweeted that McMurray would be a sleeper for our fantasy teams and then followed that up with a tweet about which cars he thought were fast in addition to Burton’s. Jamie ended up 11th on the average speed chart, which is pretty good, but the fact that he did that while running the most laps of anyone is even more impressive. The #1 Chevrolet rolls off the grid in the third row, and while I don’t see it staying up there very long, I expect Jamie to settle into about 15th or so and maybe challenge for a top 10 when it’s all said and done. McMurray ended up 14th on the ten-lap average chart during the first practice session and has three finishes of 11th or better in the last four races at Bristol. This is the 2011 season and this is Jamie McMurray, though, so don’t forget that he is going to be a very risky pick. You know what they say, though: high risk, high reward…
14. Juan Montoya – Starts 19th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.3 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 1003 (same from last Bristol race where he finished 24th)**
**Change from my preview:+1 spot. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Another super risky pick is McMurray’s teammate, Juan Montoya, who will start Saturday’s race in 19th position. Juan was 13th on the average speed chart, though, and had the 9th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session. Believe it or not, over the last five races at Bristol, Montoya has the 8th-best average driver rating, but he has only been able to put up two top 10 finishes (probably due to his aggressive driving style). If he keeps it off the wall and doesn’t piss anyone off, expect JPM to bring this #42 Chevrolet home in the top 15.
15. Greg Biffle – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 12.4 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 727 (same from February Phoenix race where he finished 20th)**
**Change from my preview: -7 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Biffle has four-straight top 10 finishes at Bristol coming into Saturday night’s race, but I think this team is going to make some major adjustments on this #16 Ford for him to make it five-straight when it’s all said and done. He starts 14th, which isn’t terrible, but ended up 20th on the average speed chart and never ran ten consecutive laps in either of the practice sessions. To me, that’s a major red flag. However, The Biff does have an average career finish of 10.7 here, so he may prove me wrong. But with last week’s disappointing finish at Michigan and his 31st-place effort at Watkins Glen, it’s almost too risky for me to put Biffle on my rosters this weekend. I think there are much better picks than him.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The Irwin Tools Night Race:
16. Marcos Ambrose – Judging by Ambrose’s qualifying effort (11th) and his rank on the average speed chart (8th), I would typically see him as a great underdog pick this weekend. However, this #9 Ford never ran ten consecutive laps in either practice session and that really worries me at a track like this. Marcos has a 3rd-place finish to his name here (back in 2009) and finished 15th here in March after starting 14th. He’s using the same chassis as the Darlington race where he finished 13th.
17. Jeff Burton – I’m still waiting for this team to put a full weekend together and salvage whatever is left of the season. In the last three Sprint Cup races, Burton has two 17th-place finish along with his 9th-place effort at Watkins Glen. Why not make it three 17th-place finishes? He starts 21st and was 19th on the average speed chart–which is actually good for Jeff. Also, in first practice, the #31 Chevrolet was 4th on the ten-lap average chart. Burton’s last four races here have ended in finishes of 20th, 16th, 10th, and 18th.
18. Kevin Harvick – Pretty much the only reason “Happy” is ranked this weekend is because of his average speed (15th overall) and his starting spot (15th as well). This team didn’t run ten consecutive laps in either practice–which really concerns me–and Harvick has an average finish of 19.8 over the last five races in Thunder Valley. If you’re looking at it from a momentum standpoint, the #29 has just one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races.
19. Regan Smith – Regan started 3rd here in March but by the end of the race he was two laps down and in 22nd position. This week, he will roll off the grid 12th, but I think he has a real good shot at improving his career average finish here, which is 25.7. Smith had the 12th-fastest ten-lap average in first practice and was 14th on that chart in Happy Hour. He hasn’t finished worse than 23rd in the last four Sprint Cup races and I don’t see that changing on Sunday.
20. David Gilliland – The last time I heard David Gilliland this optimistic and excited for the race was back in Infineon when he finished a solid 12th. On Saturday night, the #34 Ford will roll off the grid in 17th, and I think he may surprise some people and be in the top fifteen until the first pit stops. He has a pretty good car–for him anyway–coming in 17th on the average speed chart and 19th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. I’ll say this: if you have him in an allocation league, this is the perfect time to use Gilliland as a “start saver”.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Irwin Tools Night Race:
Tony Stewart – “Smoke” was junk before qualifying and then he went out and laid down the slowest lap of the field. Add those two facts together and his statement last week how this team isn’t Chase caliber and I see no reason to have Stewart on your roster this weekend. Four of the last five Bristol races have ended with Tony in 17th place or worse, and it would seem like a win for this team to finish there Saturday night.
Denny Hamlin – I didn’t have him on my “Avoid” list in my preview earlier this week, but Hamlin was my pick to avoid for Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet’s Expert Picks page and I did say “you won’t find him on my rosters this weekend.” That still holds true after qualifying, and I’m going to go ahead and say avoid the #11 Toyota. He starts 20th but hasn’t finished better than 19th in the last three Bristol races and has just one top 10 in the last eight Sprint Cup races of the season.
David Reutimann – Pretty much the only time that Reutty is a good dark horse pick in Thunder Valley is when he starts in the front of the field. Saturday night he rolls off the grid in 34th and about the only thing that impressed me with the #00 in practice was his ten-lap average in Happy Hour. However, only about half of the teams worked in race trim during that session, so you have to take that with a grain of salt. Expect a top 20 at best for Reutimann this weekend.
Kasey Kahne – The Red Bull driver sounded very optimistic in practice and was really disappointed with his qualifying run (25th) but I’m not buying it–the number just don’t match up. The #4 Toyota never ran ten consecutive laps in either practice session (this tells me that they are struggling with the car) and Kahne’s average career finish here of 19.2 is nothing to ride home about. Maybe next week in Atlanta.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jimmie Johnson, Darkhorse – Mark Martin
Yahoo!: A-List: Jimmie Johnson, B-List: Brad Keselowski & Dale Earnhardt, Jr., C-List: Paul Menard
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., David Gilliland, Mike Bliss
