Atlanta Advocare 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – This three time Atlanta winner has the best average finish (7.7) in the Sprint Cup series since 2004. Last summer he finished third and led 8 laps. In the two most recent intermediate track races Johnson has finished third (Kentucky) and second (Michigan). (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has had highs and lows at Atlanta. He won the first COT race in 2008 and in 2009 he essentially raced his way out of the Chase. Kyle Busch will unquestionably be a top contender in the Atlanta Advocare 500. Last year in the night race he finished 5th but he may very well of had the best car. He had an early pit road speeding penalty that was a major setback. Here’s his Yahoo! race chart from last years race. Kyle Busch is two for two in the last two intermediate track races (Won Michigan and Kentucky). (Yahoo A Driver)
Carl Edwards – In the summer night race last year Edwards finished second to Tony Stewart. In the spring race he was involved in “an incident” that scared people in the first few rows. In his fully completed races he’s as good as gold here. Edwards has three wins at Atlanta. (Yahoo A Driver)
A- = Really Good Pick
Matt Kenseth – There’s not a steadier driver at Atlanta then Matt Kenseth. He’s never won at this fast track but he did finish second last spring. Since the summer 2005 race Matt Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 13th. In the last four intermediate track races this year he’s come home with finishes of 6th (Kansas), 2nd (Michigan), 6th (Kentucky), and 10th (Michigan 2). (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Despite being winless at Atlanta since 2003 look for Jeff Gordon to be a venerable competitor in the Advocare 500. Gordon finished in the teens in both races last year but I think he’ll be extremely competitive Sunday night. Historically Atlanta has always been good for him. He has four wins and twenty three top tens. His average start is 12.6 and his average finish is 12.5. (Yahoo A Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Why would anyone not want to pick him? He’s good everywhere now. He’s only raced at Atlanta twice and last spring he was pretty impressive until Carl Edwards did his kamikaze move. He was a top six car. Check out his Yahoo! race chart for that race. Penske knows this track and Brad will definitely be a contender as he races for a million bucks. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch won last spring (led 126 laps) and is one of only two drivers who finished in the top ten in both races last season. Going back to 2007 Busch has two wins and only one finish worse than 11th. In 2002 Busch won a defacto night race at Atlanta. (Yahoo A Driver)
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B+ = Good Pick
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has had a rough time at Atlanta. He’s had some really good runs but some really bad finishes. In 2007 Hamlin was leading on a late restart with 4 laps to go but sputtered when the green flag waved. Check out the Youtube video of that incident (good stuff). Last year he finished 43rd but he was the most impressive 43rd place finisher around. He led 74 laps before his engine exploded. This week Hamlin will be racing a TRD engine so the chances of an engine detonation are minimized. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s a two time winner at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In 2009 he won this race. Last spring he finished 4th and led the most laps (144). In the summer race he finished 32nd but he did lead 16 laps. Here’s his Yahoo! chart from last summers race, I wouldn’t have a problem picking a driver with a chart like that (excluding the last 20 laps of course). (Yahoo B Driver)
Ryan Newman – Newman has two straight top tens in the night race at Atlanta. Since Kentucky Newman hasn’t finished lower than 16th and his average finish in this time span is 7.3. Another thing I like about Newman is his points situation. He won’t be taking any stupid risks that can sink your fantasy team. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kevin Harvick – The 29 team has really been struggling since spring. At best since his win at Charlotte he’s been a low teens driver on intermediate tracks. Last year he finished 33rd but that was due to a vibration. In the five preceding races he has four top tens and a worst finish of 13th. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – Stewart won his first race last year in the summer night race at Atlanta. Perhaps history might repeat itself and he’ll find himself in victory lane again. Last year before he won though he had some serious momentum on his side. Can’t say the same this year. Since the COT’s have been run at Atlanta he’s been a hit or a low double digit driver. (Yahoo A Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior only has one top ten at Atlanta in the COT and it was in the first race (2008). Since then his average finish is 15.2. His glory days at Atlanta were in the old car. In last years night race he finished 22nd. Despite being a former winner I’m not high on Junior. (Yahoo B Driver)
Greg Biffle – Biffle has four top tens and two finishes in the thirties at Atlanta in the COT. Biffle was impressive at Michigan but he still finished 20th. This year on intermediate tracks Biffle simply hasn’t been as good as past years. I think it’s particularly risky picking Biffle because of his points situation. Desperate people do desperate things. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Marcos Ambrose looks pretty good to me this week. He has momentum, good runs in recent Atlanta races (10th last summer, 11th last spring), and he’s been competitive on similar tracks this year (4th Las Vegas, 6th Texas, 6th Charlotte). Also if you’re in an allocation league I would bet your not running low on Ambrose starts this year. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brian Vickers – Vickers has three straight top tens at Atlanta but I can’t say I’m expecting him to get number four. Brian Vickers is very good at running the high line around Atlanta but his intermediate track performances this year are troublesome. I believe he’s about a mid teens driver on intermediate tracks at best now. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya’s had a fair amount of success at Atlanta. The first impressive race of his NASCAR career was at Atlanta in 2007 when he finished 5th. In the last three races here he’s finished 9th, 3rd and 3rd. What’s troublesome about him is that his last top ten on an intermediate track was in March. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Joey Logano – The 20 car has won at Atlanta but Logano has not. There’s not a single bit of good news to say about Logano’s history here. His average finish is 29th and his average starting position is even worse (34th). Logano has never even finished on the lead lap. (Yahoo B Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – AJ finished sixth in the spring race last year. All five of his other finishes here range from 14th to 20th. On intermediate tracks this year there’s been a little bit of a hit or miss element to him. His trend has basically been good race (low double digit finish) – bad race. Last week at Michigan (intermediate track) he finished 11th so cross your fingers Dinger fans. (Yahoo B Driver)
Martin Truex Jr. – Sleeper Alert, Atlanta is a good track for Truex but his record is spotted with random bad finishes (got a bad finish in the Hamlin Youtube video previously mentioned). In three out of the last five Atlanta races Treux has finished in the top fifteen. In 2009 (one of his non-top ten finishes) Truex started on the pole and led 68 laps.
Mark Martin – In the last seven Atlanta races Martin has one top five and six finishes of 21st or worse. If you go by Martin long-time historical stats he’s as good as gold but fantasy racing is a “what have you done for me lately” fantasy sport. What he’s done lately hasn’t been good. (Yahoo B Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has a fairly consistent record at Atlanta. He has four finishes of either 6th or 7th. He also has five finishes between 20th and 29th. There’s absolutely no middle ground for him at Atlanta. Last summer he finished 7th. Bowyer is in the same desperate points situation that Biffle’s in so it’s best to steer clear of him anyways. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
David Ragan – Atlanta may be his home track but you won’t find any evidence he has a home field advantage. Ragan has one top ten at Atlanta and two next best finishes of 19th. His average finish is 26th and his average starting position is 19th. Ragan has never led a lap here. (Yahoo C Driver)
Paul Menard – I remember in 2006 when Menard finished 7th at Atlanta in his pre-rookie year. I then drafted him in 2007 and I can tell you his 7th place finish didn’t reflect anything. Last year in the spring race he had his best finish ever at Atlanta (finished 5th). The way he’s been running lately I would look elsewhere. (Yahoo C Driver)
Jeff Burton – Jeff Burton and the phrase top ten are rarely put together in a sentence this year but last year he finished 4th in the summer race. Atlanta really hasn’t been a good track for Burton since the 90’s. Since the 1994 Purolator 500 Burton hasn’t led more than 5 laps in a single race at Atlanta. Since the COT’s (2008) have been run at Atlanta Burton has two top tens and has led a grand total of 1 lap. (Yahoo B Driver)
C = Not Gonna Pick Him
David Reutimann – In 2009 Reutimann finished 4th at Atlanta. That’s his only finish in the top fifteen here. This year on intermediate tracks Reutimann has had mild success. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – He had a good run at Bristol but Atlanta is a different beast. McMurray is a 15th place driver at Atlanta on his good days. His bad days are much worse. I think all the evidence you need to avoid him this week are his results on high speed intermediate tracks this year. (Michigan =23rd, Kentucky =36th, Michigan =19th, Kansas =29th, Charlotte =37th, Texas =22nd, Auto Club =23rd, Las Vegas =21st). (Yahoo B Driver)
