Scouting Report: Atlanta Advocare 500
How to make an informed Fantasy Pick at Atlanta
1) Studying practice will take you a long way in your quest for making an informed fantasy pick for the Adcocare 500. This week fantasy racers will be able to see practice sessions before they sign the dotted line and are committed to their fantasy pick. There’s long runs at Atlanta so picking a driver who’s good over the many laps is all the more important. Last year in this race the first caution flag didn’t come out until lap 134.
2) Studying recent intermediate track races should also be a focal point for you. Michigan and Kentucky aren’t shaped like Atlanta but it doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value there. Remember your a fantasy racer and not a geometry teacher.
3) Past Atlanta success is a good indicator for future Atlanta success. It’s an engineering aero track so you don’t want to dig to deep into the past. I wouldn’t go back anymore than 2008 (COT era).
4) Picking drivers who qualify good here shouldn’t be a must. Drivers who qualify good often finish well, but I think it’s because their good teams.
Five Drivers To Watch in the Atlanta Advocare 500
Jimmie Johnson – This three time Atlanta winner has the best average finish (7.7) in the Sprint Cup series since 2004. Last summer he finished third and led 8 laps. In the two most recent intermediate track races Johnson has finished third (Kentucky) and second (Michigan)
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has had highs and lows at Atlanta. He won the first COT race in 2008 and in 2009 he essentially raced his way out of the Chase. Kyle Busch will unquestionably be a top contender in the Atlanta Advocare 500. Last year in the night race he finished 5th but he may very well of had the best car. He had an early pit road speeding penalty that was a major setback. Here’s his Yahoo! race chart from last years race. Kyle Busch is two for two in the last two intermediate track races (Won Michigan and Kentucky).
Carl Edwards – In the summer night race last year Edwards finished second to Tony Stewart. In the spring race he was involved in “an incident” that scared people in the first few rows. In his fully completed races he’s as good as gold here. Edwards has three wins at Atlanta.
Matt Kenseth – There’s not a steadier driver at Atlanta then Matt Kenseth. He’s never won at this fast track but he did finish second last spring. Since the summer 2005 race Matt Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 13th. In the last four intermediate track races this year he’s come home with finishes of 6th (Kansas), 2nd (Michigan), 6th (Kentucky), and 10th (Michigan 2).
Jeff Gordon – Despite being winless at Atlanta since 2003 look for Jeff Gordon to be a venerable competitor in the Advocare 500. Gordon finished in the teens in both races last year but I think he’ll be extremely competitive Sunday night. Historically Atlanta has always been good for him. He has four wins and twenty three top tens. His average start is 12.6 and his average finish is 12.5.
To see the rest of my rankings check out my Atlanta Fantasy Preview
Sleepers for Atlanta
Brad Keselowski – No one can go wrong by picking Brad this week. Right now he’s looking unstoppable on the track and Tony Stewart should be very concerned about being bumped from the top ten from the 2 team. Last year in the spring Atlanta race Brad had a top six car but Carl Edwards had revenge on his mind.
Marcos Ambrose – Marcos Ambrose is a solid sleeper who’s well below nearly everyone’s radar this week. He’s been strong all year long on similar tracks. This year on 1.5 mile tracks he finished 4th at Vegas, sixth at Texas, and sixth at Charlotte. Last year at Atlanta he finished 10th and 11th. The 9 car has a strong history of success at Atlanta and last year in the spring race Kahne led 144 laps.
VegasInsider.com Odds to win at Atlanta:
Kyle Busch 5/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Kevin Harvick 6/1, Denny Hamlin 7/1, Jeff Gordon 9/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Kurt Busch 12/1, Matt Kenseth 12/1, Brad Keselowski 14/1, Kasey Kahne 16/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:
1)Brad Keselowski 2)Kyle Busch 3)Jeff Gordon 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Matt Kenseth 7)Martin Truex Jr. 8)Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9)Jamie McMurray 10)AJ Allmendinger
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center
Stats for the last five races at Atlanta
