Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Atlanta – Advocare 500 (Post Qualifying)
Can “Smoke” Stay In The Top Ten With The Red Hot Blue Deuce Team Closing In?
I’ll tell you before I start that this week is a complete toss up for me. Not only is no driver really dominant at this track, but that along with the idiotic practice schedule–Matt Kenseth said, “I don’t know who in the world came up with these track schedules this year, but they are just the goofiest thing I’ve ever seen”– makes this one of the hardest week’s of the season for me to predict thus far. What I would recommend for all fantasy racers this week before finalizing their rosters is to read the crew chief notes to see what cars are favored by the crew chiefs. My Practice Breakdown for the week was posted Saturday afternoon and you can look that over by clicking here.
Likely Start and Parks:
Michael McDowell (starts 28th—may go to the back to get out of the way)
Scott Speed (starts 30th—has been a S&P every start)
Robby Gordon (starts 33rd–S&P every week)
Joe Nemechek (starts 34th)
Mike Skinner (starts 39th)
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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Advocare 500:
1. Jeff Gordon – Starts 5th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 9.7 (five wins)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: +3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
When Jeff Gordon says that his car is near perfect and that he’s really happy with it, the rest of the competition better watch out. After last week’s disappointing 3rd-place finish after pretty much dominating the race at Bristol, I think Gordon will come out with a vengeance this weekend and be up front most of the night once again, only this time he will secure the victory. This team hasn’t finished worse than 13th since mid-June and that won’t change this weekend, either. Gordon has four victories at Atlanta and even though he stumbled a bit here last season, he has the fourth-best average driver rating over the last four races here.
2. Kyle Busch – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.1 (three wins)
**Chassis selection: no. 318 (same from August race in Pocono where Busch finished 2nd)**
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
With all three–out of thirteen starts–of his top 10s here also being top 5s, Rowdy is pretty hit or miss at this track, but going into the race Sunday night it looks like this will be a “hit” weekend for him. Busch will start the race in 3rd, which is exactly where he started here last September, and it would not surprise me if he grabbed the lead by the time they came across the stripe again. Busch wasn’t great on the average speed chart, but he really never is. His lone win at Atlanta came back in 2008 when Kyle led 173 of the 325 laps ran. I expect a solid top five from Kyle Busch on Sunday.
3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.2 (two wins)
**Chassis selection: RK-787 (brand new)**
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
You know by now that when Matt Kenseth qualifies in the top 10 at intermediate tracks that he’s basically a lock for a top 10 finish as well. Atlanta is no exception. Kenseth has no wins at this 1.54-mile race track but has twelve top 10s in twenty-two starts here and hasn’t finished worse than 13th since mid-2005. In fact, during that eleven-race span, Matt has six top 5 finishes, and I fully expect him to add a seventh on Sunday night. Kenseth had the best ten-lap average of drivers in first practice that didn’t run all ten consecutive laps at the start of practice (laps 1 through 10). He has a brand new chassis this weekend and in Kenseth’s two wins this season he has went into the weekend with a new chassis.
4. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.0 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. PRS-750 (same one from Charlotte race where he finished 4th)**
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The elder Busch brother has three wins at this 1.54-mile race track, but he also seven finishes outside of the top 30 in his twenty starts here, which is the reason his average finish is so low (18.1). However, of those three wins, two have come in the last four races here, and he has another fast Dodge here this weekend: Busch was in the top 5 in ten-lap average during both practice sessions. He’s finished worse than 11th at Atlanta just once since 2006–and that was because of an accident–so expect a solid top 10 out of the Double Deuce on Sunday, although I am leaning more toward a top 5.
5. Tony Stewart – Starts 20th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.8
**Chassis selection: no. 14-591 (same from Charlotte where Smoke finished 17th)**
**Change from my preview: +5 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Smoke” wasn’t great in the first practice, which is the reason he didn’t have a very good qualifying effort (I think so any way), but he should be up there when it’s all said and done. Tony is the defending winner at Atlanta and has the second-best career average finish (11.6) of all active drivers here. In twenty-four career starts at this 1.54-mile race track, Stewart fourteen top 10s and just four finishes outside of the top 20. He had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and the sixth-best during first practice. Also, Stewart wound up 7th on the average speed chart. In case you don’t study those numbers regularly, that doesn’t happen very often at all, and when it does, Smoke usually has a car to win. He would be my favorite this week if he didn’t have so much traffic to go through.
6. Clint Bowyer – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.8
**Chassis selection: no. 368 (same from last Michigan race that Bowyer started in the rear and finished 8th)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Clint sure is trying his hardest to get that Chase berth. He will start the race on the front row and seems to have a pretty fast Chevrolet, ending up 5th on the average speed chart. However, his ten-lap averages weren’t that great during either practice session, which worries me. But you know Bowyer is going to be trying his hardest for the win this weekend to try and sneak in the Chase, and if that’s going to happen in the next two races, this one is the most likely. Bowyer has five top 10 finishes at Atlanta in ten career starts and four of them have been 6th-place finishes. Why not make it a fifth? This chassis really impressed me in Michigan, but I will caution you: I haven’t been real impressed at all with RCR over the last month.
7. Brad Keselowski – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 11.9 (two wins)
**Chassis selection: no. PRS-755 (same from June race in Michigan where BK finished 25th)**
**Change from my preview: -2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
If you plan on leaving BK off of your fantasy roster while he is on this little hot streak, I would consider doing it this weekend. He was in the top five in both practice sessions, but that was just one good lap. The Blue Deuce didn’t make ten consecutive laps in first practice, but it did in Happy Hour and was second-fastest of the thirty cars that made runs. However, the conditions during Happy Hour were nowhere near what the conditions of the race will be Sunday night. I think Keselowski has a top 10 car–just like he did here last March before Carl Edwards tried to kill him–but I have a feeling this is going to be the one week that some people hop off the bandwagon, making them either look like geniuses or idiots.
8. Carl Edwards – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 10.1 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. RK-768 (same from June Kansas race where he finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Carl Edwards ended up 2nd on the average speed chart, but he only ran 50 laps, which is a real concern to me. This team has ran minimal laps in practice all season, though, which makes it hard to predict what kind of car they have. The #99 Ford has been under-performing for the last month or so, and that includes last week at Bristol despite Edwards finishing in the top 10. At Atlanta, Carl has three wins in thirteen starts, and while has four finishes of 37th or worse here, the rest of the races have ended with Edwards inside the top 7. I don’t see him as a winner this weekend, but a top 5 is reachable for Carl Edwards this weekend. As I am typing this, he is somewhat dominating the Nationwide race.
9. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 17th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.3 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no. 650 (same from June race at Pocono where he finished 4th)**
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Jimmie Johnson’s average finish of 10.4 at Atlanta is better than all other active drivers here and he has visited victory lane at this 1.54-mile race track three times, the most recent coming back in both races during the 2007 season. Jimmie had the 4th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session and the 10th-best during Happy Hour, but this is his worst qualifying effort at this track since his first start. In the seven races at Atlanta that Johnson has started outside of the top 10, he has an average finish of 15.9 and just two top 10 finishes. He has the sixth-best average driver rating over the last four Atlanta races.
10. Juan Montoya – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.9
**Chassis selection: no. 1105 (same from Kentucky race where Montoya finished 15th)**
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
JPM has three straight top 10 finishes at Atlanta, and I think going into the race Sunday night, he has a Chevrolet capable of making it four straight. However, as you know by now, Montoya is extremely risky when it comes to intermediate tracks and is usually either top 10 or wreck. In eight career starts here, Juan has three top 5s but also three finishes outside of the top 20. He was 8th on the average speed chart, but only ran 50-odd laps during the two practice sessions. This same chassis was looking at a solid top 10 in Kentucky but a late penalty put Juan in 15th. If you’re feeling lucky this weekend, go ahead and roll the dice with Montoya.
11. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.1
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Truex generally runs really well at Atlanta (ninth-best average driver rating over the last four races here) but doesn’t get the finish. Story of his Sprint Cup career, right? However, his Toyota looks pretty fast this weekend (9th on the average speed chart) and started 8th doesn’t hurt, either. Martin has only two top 10 finishes in twelve starts at this 1.54-mile track, but with last week’s runner-up performance, I think this team has a boost of confidence and if everything goes smoothly Sunday night, a third Atlanta top 10 isn’t out of the question. As always, be cautious when picking the #56.
12. Kasey Kahne – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 14.8 15.1 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This is the type of track that Kasey Kahne loves and he starts from the pole…he should be a top 10 contender at least, right? Not in my eyes. This team has been a letdown on intermediates all year and one major thing I noticed about this Red Bull team when looking at the numbers this weekend was this: Kahne never ran ten consecutive laps in either practice session. This doesn’t worry me as much as it would have last weekend at Bristol, but it’s still going to be in the back of my mind when I choose whether or not to start him in Yahoo! tomorrow morning over Keselowski or Truex. One thing to think about: Kahne has the best average driver rating over the last four Atlanta races and his two wins here have came when he started on the front row.
13. A.J. Allmendinger – Starts 11th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 16.7
**Chassis selection: no. 752 (same from Charlotte race where A.J. finished 5th)**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
The Dinger seemed to be a dark horse for most people earlier this week (except myself of course) and he looks like he may be able to finish around where he starts on Sunday. A.J. ended up 12th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour and was 11th on the same chart during first practice. Once both sessions were done, Allmendinger ended up 4th on the average speed chart and ran a decent amount of laps (84). He has made six career starts at Atlanta and has never finished worse than 20th. I don’t think that will change on Sunday night, and A.J. just might notch his second career top 10 finish at this race track.
14. Brian Vickers – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 15.5 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
Once I saw the qualifying results, three drivers really surprised me: Brad Keselowski (I thought he would at least be top 10) and the two Red Bull Racing drivers. Vickers car looked like absolute junk in practice so I’m not sure how he pulled off this 4th-place qualifying effort. I do expect him to drop like a rock early, though, but with a little strategy, a top 15 is possible. Brian has three-straight top 10s at Atlanta and has finished there seven times in fourteen starts here. If he looked better in practice I wouldn’t have the #83 as such a risky pick.
15. Denny Hamlin – Starts 13th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = 13.4 (one win)
**Chassis selection: no information available**
**Change from my preview: -8 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
When SPEED interviewed Denny about his race car during the first practice session, he sounded really optimistic about his chances Sunday night. However, that has been the story of Hamlin this season: he thinks he has a winning car every weekend. He had a great car here last September, but I don’t see him being that fast this weekend. He was 11th on the average speed chart and 13th during Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. Denny needs a win to pretty much guarantee a Chase spot this season, but a solid top 15 won’t be terrible for this team (as long as Menard or someone doesn’t steal another victory). Hamlin’s average finish at Atlanta is 18.4.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The Advocare 500:
Kevin Harvick – As I mentioned before, I don’t like how RCR is running lately, and I especially don’t like how Kevin Harvick and this #29 team is running, either (he has just one top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races). “Happy” was on top of the average speed chart, but only ran 62 laps. I could be dead wrong about Harvick this weekend, but I think he’ll finish right around where he starts (21st).
Greg Biffle – I read on Twitter that this team changed the engine in the #16 Ford and even though I think he will come up through the traffic quickly on Sunday night, I see The Biff as a top 15 car at best once it’s all said and done. His average finish here is 16.3 and he has four top 10s in the last six Atlanta races, but with the way this team has been so inconsistent on the intermediates this year, I’d go ahead and pass on Biffle this week.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Jeff Gordon, Darkhorse – A.J. Allmendinger
Yahoo!: A-List: Matt Kenseth, B-List: Brad Keselowski & Martin Truex, Jr., C-List: David Gilliland
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, Jr., Mike Bliss
