Chicagoland Geico 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – This is the moment Jimmie Johnson has been waiting for since Homestead. Chicagoland is a good track for him to get the “race for seis” rolling. Johnson is a lock for a top five this week. He’s only finished lower than 8th twice but in those two races he’s led 92 and 82 laps respectively. Jimmie Johnson is also an A+ qualifier. In the last eight races he hasn’t started worse than 8th. At Michigan (similar track) Johnson finished second to Kyle Busch. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Chicagoland used to be a winless track for Gordon but since he visited victory lane in 2006 he’s never looked back. Win number 86 could easily happen in the Geico 400. In the last two Chicagoland races he’s finished 2nd and 3rd. Gordon has lots of momentum right now and should be very impressive Sunday afternoon. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards may be perceived as a risky pick this week but he’ll be an elite driver Sunday afternoon. His overall history at Chicagoland is shaky but last year he finished second. Edwards also has a third place finish to his name but he boasts three finishes of 20th or worse. In 2011 Edwards has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. (Yahoo A Driver)

FaceBook.com/ifantasyrace <– Where I’ll share my picks

A- = Really Good Pick

Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth almost won at Chicagoland in 2006 but Jeff Gordon nudged him out of the lead in the closing laps. Only Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson have led more laps than Kenseth at Chicago (300). Matt will be tough to beat but he’s been fading in the closing segments of races far to often lately. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick won the first two races at Chicagoland in 2001 and 2002. He really hasn’t been that good on intermediate tracks since he won at Charlotte but his seventh place finish at Atlanta has helped restore my faith in him. Harvick’s average finish at Chicago is 11th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Tony Stewart – Stewart has a near spotless record at Chicagoland. Since the inaugural race in 2001 Stewart has two wins, and seven top five finishes. Stewart has also led more laps (396) than anyone at the Windy City. Since 2004 Stewart’s average finish is 4.75 with a worst finish of ninth. At Michigan (similar track) in August Stewart finished 9th. You also can’t discount his 3rd place finish at Atlanta. (Yahoo A Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has a best finish of 18th at Chicagoland but that stat doesn’t mean anything to the current 2 team. All that you need to know about Keselowski is that he finished 6th at Atlanta and 3rd at Michigan during his current hot streak. (Yahoo B Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Don’t write off Denny Hamlin this week. Now that he’s got bad luck out of the way the 11 team could really get on a roll. In the last two Chicagoland races he’s finished 5th and 8th. His average running position in these races is 10th and his driver rating is 99.0. Don’t forget he won at Michigan in June which is essentially a big Chicagoland. (Yahoo A Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Kyle Busch – Busch is a former winner (2008) but it’s hard to be to high on him this week. Beyond his win he only has one other top ten finish at Chicago. A typical day for him at the Windy City is a teens finish. Kyle Busch doesn’t typically perform good during the Chase so be wary of this fact. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – Busch may think he’s in Jimmie’s head but from his post race actions I would say Jimmie’s in his. Half the time he’s good at Chicagoland but the other half it’s been ugly. He’s never finished in the top five at Chicago but he does have five top tens in ten starts. In the last three races at Chicagoland he hasn’t cracked the top fifteen. His fourth place finish at Atlanta was impressive and certainly isn’t anything that should be overlooked. (Yahoo A Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – SLEEPER ALERT, AJ has raced here three times and has finished 13th, 13th and 14th. Since Greg Irwin joined the 43 team they clearly have been performing better week in and week out. In the two most recent intermediate races he’s finished 11th (Michigan) and 10th (Atlanta). (Yahoo B Driver)

Ryan Newman – Newman is a previous winner (2004) and in three out of the last four Chicagoland races he’s finished in the top ten. Newman was really good at Michigan (5th, 6th) and Auto Club Speedway (5th) this year. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – Now that he’s officially out of the Chase I think good things can happen for him again (NASCAR phenomenon that happens when drivers miss the Chase). In eight starts he has one top ten finish but three 11th place finishes. The reason why people should buy Biffle stock this week is because of how strong he performed at Michigan. He finished 20th (faded at the end) but he led nearly half the laps (86). (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has finished in the top ten in four out of the five races he’s competed in at Chicago. In the two most recent intermediate track races he’s had strong showings. At Atlanta he was top ten material but was involved in an incident with Montoya. At Michigan he finished 8th. (Yahoo B Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has two straight top ten finishes at Chicago. Unfortunately those are his only two and he has four finishes of 23rd or worse. He’s been competitive in the last two intermediate track races (Michigan 7th, Atlanta 34th but led 15 laps before engine failure). The bottom line about Kahne is that he has potential to grab you a good finish but the risk level is always present. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann is a solid sleeper pick heading into Chicagoland. The big plus about him is that he’s a sleeper who’s also the defending champion. Beyond his win he also has finishes of 12th and 14th to his name here. I think he’s more likely to finish in the teens than repeat this Sunday. Kentucky is classified as a similar track by many and in July Reutimann finished second there. (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has certainly been on the rise in recent weeks. There’s no reason to think another good finish isn’t inevitable. In five races at Chicagoland he’s finished 16th or better all but once. His one finish not in the top sixteen was due to engine issues. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers is a good sleeper pick at Chicagoland. In his tenure at Red Bull he’s come home with finishes of 6th and 7th. I think it would be safe to say Vickers is good for a top fifteen finish. One concern I have about Brian Vickers is that the last time he finished in the top in the final ten races of the season was back in 2007. (Yahoo B Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior has one win at Chicago but it came in the old car. During the old car era he was typically a top fifteen driver. In the new car he’s mustered finishes of 15th, 16th and 23rd. Beyond his second place finish at Kansas (fuel mileage) I don’t see a lot of reasons for optimism here. His best finish since Kansas on an intermediate track is 14th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – Since Bristol McMurray has quietly improved  and isn’t as big of a fantasy liability as he has been this year. Last year at Chicagoland he won the pole and finished 5th (led 72 laps). To find his next top ten at Chicago you have to look all the way back to 2003 (rookie year). (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – Ragan has raced at Chicagoland four times and half his finishes are 25th. His two other finishes are 12th and 8th. He’s been somewhat solid on similar tracks this year and he’s lock for a top twenty finish or better. (Yahoo C Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya’s average finish at Chicagoland is an unskewed 14.9. His finishes here range from 10th to 18th. The downside about him is that his last finish better than 15th on an intermediate track was in May when he finished 12th in the Coca Cola 600. He started off the year good on intermediates but his performances on this type of track have fallen off. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Jeff Burton – Burton has finished in the teens in recent intermediate track races. He’s also been performing slightly better across the board since Pocono. Since the August Pocono race he’s only finished higher than the teens once. Burton has finished in the top ten in three out of the last five Chicagoland races. (Yahoo B Driver)

Joey Logano – In his two starts at Chicagoland Joey Logano has wheeled the Home Depot car to finishes of 18th and 19th. I don’t see any reason to expect anything different then the norm for Logano this week. Across the board at recent intermediate track races he’s finished consistently around the same range. (Atlanta= 24th, Michigan= 21st, Kentucky= 14th, Michigan= 18th, Kansas= 23rd). (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Paul Menard – Menard finished 10th at Chicagoland last year. All three of his other finishes are 26th or worse. I would say he’s far from a safe pick. In the last five races this year he’s finished 18th or worse every race. (Yahoo C Driver)

Mark Martin – Martin won this race in 2009 and led 195 laps. His other finishes at Chicago in the COT are all mid teens (15th & 17th). If you’re a Martin fan or someone who’s desperate in an allocation league there is some hope. At Michigan he finished 4th about a month ago. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – When you want to know how a driver with limited history will perform the best thing to do is look at their recent results on similar tracks. He has four straight +20th place results on this track type. (Yahoo B Driver)