New Hampshire Sylvania 300 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a three time winner who last won at New Hampshire in 2010. Earlier this year Johnson finished 5th and led 19 laps. Johnson started 28th and passed more cars then anyone (93). Jimmie has an average finish of 10th and a average start of 11th. This is Chase time and that means it’s “Jimmie time”. (Yahoo A Driver)
Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is a two time winner at New Hampshire. In July he finished second in what was Stewart- Haas Racing’s first one-two finish. Stewart has been extremely competitive here recently. In two out of the last three New Hampshire races he’s finished second. In the one race he didn’t finish second he was in the lead until he ran out of gas in the closing laps relegating him to a 24th place finish (led 100 laps). Stewart has led laps in the last eight consecutive races at New Hampshire (414 laps over last eight races). (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Now’s not the time to hop off the Jeff Gordon momentum bandwagon. He’s a three time New Hampshire winner (last in 1998) who’s only finished outside the top fifteen once since 2004. He should’ve won the 2009 race but Logano was aided by rain. Richmond (best car) and Phoenix (won) are similar tracks so there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat in the Sylvania 300. (Yahoo A Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Kevin Harvick – All RCR cars missed the setup at New Hampshire earlier this year. That really concerns me. His Richmond win was huge though in terms of inspiring fantasy NASCAR confidence for me. He also performed admirably at Phoenix in February and finished 4th with a damaged car. Before his 21st place finish in July Harvick had two consecutive 5th place finishes. Harvick won the New Hampshire Chase opening race in 2006. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kurt Busch – Earlier this year Kurt Busch led 66 laps and finished 10th. On the last lap of the regular season race he was running in fifth before he ran out of gas. Since 2008 Kurt Busch has an average finish of 6th, a mid race average running position of 6th, and an average running position of 7th. The bottom line about Kurt Busch is that he’s always near the front of the pack. (Yahoo A Driver)
Ryan Newman – Newman’s first win came at New Hampshire and his last win came at New Hampshire. This track is unquestionably one of Newman’s best tracks. 1/5th of his career wins are on this track. In the last four Loudon races Newman’s finished in the top eight every race. (Yahoo B Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin won the first COT race at New Hampshire and he’s never finished below 15th. Earlier this year he finished 3rd behind the Stewart Haas duo. In the last two New Hampshire Chase races Hamlin has finished second both times. Hamlin has an impressive 7th place average finish at the Magic Mile but he hasn’t led a lot of laps (only 74). (Yahoo A Driver)
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B+ = Good Pick
Carl Edwards – In fourteen races Edwards only has two top ten finishes at New Hampshire. He finished 13th earlier this year which was reflective of how he performed (12th place avg. running position). Last year in the Chase race he had top ten potential but he had to make a pit stop and lost lots of track position (6th place avg running position, 4th place mid race running position). (Yahoo A Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – If your in an allocation league this is a good track to sneak in a Dale Jr. start. Earnhardt has finished in the top fifteen in five out of the last six races (top ten finishes in half the races). The only race he didn’t finish in the top fifteen he was very good, David Reutimann’s breaking ability was another story (Yahoo race chart for that race). (Yahoo B Driver)
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch finished 36th earlier this year due to an early accident in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. In the four previous races he finished in the top eleven every race. Kyle Busch won at New Hampshire in 2006. Busch has finished outside the top 27 in half his September New Hampshire races . (Yahoo A Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer is a two time winner at New Hampshire and is currently the defending champion. My concern about Bowyer this week is that he looked lost earlier this year. He finished 17th and that’s slightly better then where he ran all day (18th place avg. running position). I also wasn’t very impressed with how he ran at Richmond. After the wreck he raced his way into the top ten but after a caution pit road setback it looked like he basically gave up. Getting lapped under green is the last thing you want from a driver. His current lame duck status shouldn’t help him much either. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Brad’s 21st place finish average finish might not be to appealing but he did finish 6th in his first start in Hendrick equipment. Last year in this race Brad won his first career pole. In July Brad started 5th but had an early flat tire about 40 laps into the race. He ran good before he had the setback though (Yahoo race chart). (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
AJ Allmendinger – In AJ’s first five races at New Hampshire he finished 25th or lower every race. The past is the past though and in the last three he’s finished 12th, 12th and 10th. That’s something you can work with in fantasy NASCAR. He’s also been really good at Richmond lately so look for him to be a hot dark horse pick this week. (Yahoo B Driver)
Martin Truex Jr. – If you need a SLEEPER pick this week Martin Treux Jr. might very well be your guy. Earlier this year he finished 8th and overall he’s finished in the top ten in about half his starts (5 for 11). He’s also had some good runs in the past but suffered from accidents. One more good thing about Treux is that his typical bad day at New Hampshire is about a 20th place finish. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Earlier this year Ambrose finished 9th and led 4 laps. His overall history at New Hampshire isn’t the greatest but if you study his results at similar tracks such as Richmond and Phoenix it will become clear to you he’s someone who should be on your radar. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya is the best Loudon driver who only has one top ten. His lone top ten came in the 2009 Chase opening race (finished 3rd, led 105 laps). The potential is quite high but the risk level is a 10. If qualifying points matter to you Montoya might be the perfect driver for you. He’s started in the top eight the last four races and he’s accumulated two poles in this time span. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – Slap a restrictor plate on his car and hope for the best (won and led 300 laps in NASCAR’s 2000 experiment). Burton has only finished in the top ten in one out of the last eight New Hampshire races. Last year in the Chase Burton was going to finish in the top five but ran out of gas in the closing laps. Burton has four wins at New Hampshire with his last being the restrictor plate race. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kahne finished sixth in July and led 5 laps. He’s a good driver here but he’s only finished in the top ten in six of his fifteen races. One slight problem is that four of his top tens came in his first five New Hampshire races. Last year in this race Kahne finished 14th. His best New Hampshire race was the 2010 July race. He finished 36th but he led 110 laps. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Reutimann’s not a bad fantasy option this week. He’s not great but he has finished in the top 19 in the last seven races. Last fall he finished 7th. Reutimann is also a good qualifier at New Hampshire. In the last three races he’s started 3rd, 7th and 6th. You also can’t forget he won the pole at Richmond (similar track). (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is one Chase driver you don’t want to pick this week. Shorter flat tracks are definitely not his forte. Since 2008 he hasn’t finished better than 17th at New Hampshire. In the 2008 to present day time frame Kenseth hasn’t led a single lap and he has an average running position of 20th. He’s barely even cracked the top fifteen (28.6% of laps run in top 15). (Yahoo B Driver)
Mark Martin – Martin has one win at New Hampshire and it came in the 2009 Chase opening race. Since then he’s finished 22nd, 29th and 21st. At the similar tracks this year Martin’s had some of his best runs of the year. Last week at Richmond he finished 10th and at Phoenix he finished 13th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano – Logano got his one and only win at New Hampshire in 2009. What’s really interesting about Logano is his summer vs. fall performances. In the summer race he’s never finished lower than 9th (4.6 avg finish). In the fall race he’s never finished better than 21st. Earlier this year he finished 4th and had an average running position of 12th. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Jamie McMurray – McMurray is a driver who’s better than advertised this week. At the onset if you just look at his finish number you’ll move on. He finished 3rd last year and earlier this year he finished 31st but was running in the top ten until he ran out of gas (Yahoo race chart). One fantasy problem about McMurray is that to find his next top ten at New Hampshire you have to look all the way back to 2004. (Yahoo B Driver)
Greg Biffle – Biffle won the 2008 Chase opening New Hampshire race but since then he’s only finished in the top ten once. All of his other finishes since 2008 have fallen between 16th and 18th. So I think it’s fairly safe to say he’s a sub top fifteen driver this week. Beyond Carl Edwards I would avoid Roush Fenway Racing cars altogether this week. (Yahoo A Driver)
C = Not Gonna Pick Him
Brian Vickers – Vickers has finished in the top ten in just 8% of his starts at New Hampshire. What’s even more disturbing is the fact that he’s only finished in the top twenty in half his starts. This is not how you win fantasy leagues. The intangible of him stinking up the last ten races of the year is also looming. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Ragan – The only person who would pick David Ragan this week is someone who forgot to take him out of their lineup. In July Ragan had his best finish ever at New Hampshire. Unfortunately 14th place isn’t anything to brag about. What should really disturb you about Ragan is the fact that his only other top 15 finish came in his rookie year (2007). (Yahoo C Driver)
Paul Menard – Menard’s best finish at New Hampshire is (insert dramatic music)…. 21st. His 29th place average finish is basically what you should be expecting. It isn’t skewed in any meaningful way. Even if he starts up front don’t pick him. In the last two races he’s started in the top ten but he still finished in the 20’s. (Yahoo C Driver)
