Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has finished in the top ten in five consecutive Kansas races. Earlier this year he finished 7th and had an average running position of 9.9 despite starting 31st. If qualifying points matter to you Johnson has started in the top 4 in six of his ten starts. At Chicagoland Johnson had the fourth best driver rating (113.7) and had an average running position of 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Edwards has never won at Kansas but he’ll do whatever it takes to visit victory lane. Remember his 2008 video game pass on the last lap? Carl Edwards will be on the short list of drivers to beat this Sunday. Earlier this year Edwards had an average running position of 4th and he was one of only three drivers who ran the entire race inside the top fifteen. Edwards has four consecutive top tens at Kansas. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – You can never count out Matt Kenseth at a intermediate track and Kansas is no exception. His track record is “spotty” but he’s a intermediate track work horse. In the last two Kansas races Kenseth finished 6th and 7th. His 110.9 driver rating in these two races ranks 5th best in the series. Also in terms of evaluating Matt Kenseth for Kansas you can’t gloss over how well he performed at Chicagoland (114.2 driver rating, third best). (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon won the first two races at Kansas Speedway back in 2001 and 2002. Jeff Gordon can top Jimmie Johnson’s consecutive Kansas streak. Gordon has finished in the top 5 in five consecutive races. In the eleven races run at Kansas Gordon has only finished outside the top ten twice. One area of concern is his Chicagoland performance. He simply wasn’t good. His 20.7 average running position is nothing to get excited about. (Yahoo A Driver)

Tony Stewart – Stewart is a two-time Kansas winner and in the Hollywood Casino 400 I’m not sure if I would want to bet against him. In the last three Kansas races Stewart has three straight top eight finishes and has led +20 laps in every race. Stewart won at Chicagoland so there’s no question in my mind he’ll be a factor. Stewart has only finished outside the top ten three times in his career at Kansas. (Yahoo A Driver)

Get in your VOTE for who will win at Kansas

A- = Really Good Pick

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski’s Kansas win was the product of fuel mileage. Look for fuel to be a crucial variable again this week. It was at Chicagoland (similar track) and Brad was good on fuel there as well (finished 5th). Keselowski has been raking in top tens with sub standard cars so I think he’s due for a good one. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has finished in the top eleven in four out of the last five races at Kansas. Earlier this year he finished 11th but he had an 8th place average running position. Harvick is very good at this style of track and his second place finish at Chicagoland is a testament to that. His ability to win fuel mileage races should also be noted (Charlotte). (Yahoo A Driver)

Greg Biffle – Biffle has had a stellar career at Kansas Speedway. He’s a two-time winner and he’s so good at Kansas that he can win after crossing the finish line 4th! In NASCAR’s earlier visit to Kansas this year Biffle finished an uncharacteristic 10th. The reason why 10th is uncharacteristic is because in the four preceding races he finished 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 1st. Michigan is a similar track to Kansas and in August Biffle had a dominant car for the first half the race. At Chicagoland (sister track) Biffle was good for the first 90 laps but he had a flat tire and never recovered (Yahoo race chart) Based on the way he’s been performing lately Biffle is a high risk driver. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – Busch hasn’t historically been that impressive at Kansas but he arguably had the best car in June. He started on the pole and led 56.9% of the laps. He also never ran lower than 11th and he had an average running position of 3rd (best in series). Due to the nature of this being a fuel mileage race he ultimately finished 9th. His next most previous top ten at Kansas was in 2004 when he won the championship. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kyle Busch – Kansas hasn’t traditionally been a friendly track to Kyle Busch. In eight races Kyle Busch has only finished in the top ten once but he has been better than advertised in the last two races here. Last year Kyle Busch had a top 8 car but David Reutimann’s vigilante justice severely effected the handling the 18 car (yahoo race chart). Earlier this year Kyle Busch finished 12th but that doesn’t reflect how well he ran (remember it was a fuel mileage race). Busch had a 6th place average running position and he posted the 5th best driver rating (106.9). (Yahoo A Driver)

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B+ = Good Pick

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has two top tens at Kansas in eight Kansas races. If you’re a Kahne fan there are reasons for optimism. He’s had measured success in the last three Kansas races. Earlier this year he finished 14th (not terrible), last year he finished 37th (led 27 laps, crash), and in 2009 he finished 6th. Kahne has also been good in the last three intermediate track races (Chicagoland – 12th, Atlanta won pole, led 15 laps, engine failure, Michigan – 7th). (Yahoo B Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. –  If Brad ran out of gas in June then Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve been the winner (finished second). Chicagoland was also a fuel mileage race and Dale finished an impressive 3rd. Junior has five top ten’s at Kansas. (Yahoo B Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers is nearly a lock for a top twenty at Kansas. In five of his six races that’s the mark he’s finished lower than. The only thing that has kept him out of a top twenty finish at Kansas is an engine failure. Vickers has also shown improved performances on intermediate tracks as of late and in the last two races he’s finished 13th (Chicagoland) and 11th (Atlanta).

Mark Martin – Martin has the fifth best average finish in the series at Kansas since 2004 (12.0), but he finished 21st in June. There are reasons for optimism for the Hollywood Casino 400 though. I think Martin is a solid SLEEPER pick based on how he’s run on recent similar tracks. At Chicagoland he finished 9th and at Michigan he swept the top ten this year. Martin won at Kansas in 2005. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Kansas is Bowyer’s home track but I don’t see any indications of that being any sort of advantage for him. Bowyer finished in the top ten in his first two starts at Kansas but in his last three he’s finished outside the top fifteen. Since July Bowyer has only finished in the top ten three times. Two of his  top tens were at Michigan and Chicagoland so there’s some potential. Earlier this year he finished 18th and had a 16th place average running position. His impending move to MWR could prove to be a major distraction this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Denny Hamlin – I’m not the slightest bit interested in picking Hamlin this week despite his 3rd place finish in June. I’ve seen how he’s performed on the track in recent weeks and I don’t want anything to do with that. Many drivers who barely make the Chase often struggle mightily once they get in (examples: Brian Vickers, Jeremy Mayfield). (Yahoo A Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – AJ’s batting .500 at Kansas in terms of finishing in the top ten. The downside about him is that he was a big fantasy let down at Chicagoland. He did finish 10th (Atlanta) and 11th (Michigan) in some other recent intermediate track races so I’ll forgive him. (Yahoo B Driver)

Ryan Newman – In Newman’s first three races at Kansas he finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st. I want that Newman back. Since then he’s only finished in the top ten once but fortunately for our fantasy sakes it came in last years Price Chopper 400. Earlier this year Newman finished 15th but it sure beats his 22nd place average running position. Some of Newman’s best runs this year have come on this style of track so he’s definitely worth a look (Chicagoland – 8th, Michigan – 5th, Kentucky – 4th, Michigan – 6th, Auto Club Speedway – 5th). (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – In five races at Kansas David Ragan has only finished lower than 16th once. I think it’s reasonable to expect a nice solid teens finish from him in the Hollywood Casino 400. Ragan finished 11th at Chicagoland and 12th at Michigan. (Yahoo C Driver)

Paul Menard – Menard finished 9th last year at Kansas (led 11 laps) . Unfortunately he backed it up with a 19th place finish in June. In his first three Kansas races he finished 30th, 27th and 27th. Be careful if you pick him, he seems to be linked to 27’s a little bit to much for my liking. (Yahoo C Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya has one top ten finish at Kansas and all of his other finishes are 17th or worse. That’s just to risky for me. His 20th place average is the real deal. It’s not skewed because his worst finish is 29th. Earlier this year Montoya started second and led 10 laps. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann has one top ten finish to his name at Kansas. Last year before the Kyle Busch incident started Reutimann was running in the top ten. There’s two main pro reasons why you should consider Reutimann this week. 1) He finished second at Kentucky this year 2) Previous winner at Chicagoland (sister track). (Yahoo B Driver)

Martin Treux Jr. – If you’re a loop data fan then Martin Treux Jr. might be your secret weapon this week. You might think your being sneaky but I caution you about proceeding with your plan. In the last four Kansas races Martin Truex Jr. has an average running position of 14.5 (best among Yahoo! B list drivers) and a driver rating of 80.8 (5th best in B list). In fantasy racing finishing pays points and Truex greatly struggles in that department. He’s finished in the top ten once and he has an average finish of 25th. He qualifies good but resist the temptation. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Jeff Burton – When you combine a driver who’s struggled this year with a track that they don’t normally run good at then what you get is bad fantasy results. I know that’s not what you want. Burton has only finished in the top ten twice and in his last three Kansas races he’s finished 25th, 18th and 23rd. He’s finished in the teens in the last three intermediate races so if you pick him that’s the best case scenario. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray has two career top tens at Kansas and they came in his first two races at this 1.5 mile intermediate track. In the last seven Kansas races McMurray has one top fifteen finish and an average finish of 24.6. A few weeks ago at Chicagoland (sister track) McMurray had a top ten car but his engine gave way (Yahoo race chart) and he ended up finishing 38th.

C = Not Gonna Pick Him

Joey Logano – In four races Logano has finishes of 23rd, 17th, 28th and 39th. Not quite the best thing since sliced bread. Really the best case scenario this week is a mid teens finish. Logano only has one top ten at an intermediate track this year and it came at Charlotte and we all know how that race ended. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has really struggled at Kansas. His average finish is 28th and his average starting position is 29th. Ambrose did good on high speed intermediate tracks at the start of the season but since Charlotte on this track type his average finish is 23rd and he’s got a lowly loop data driver rating of 69.6. (Yahoo B Driver)