Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Kansas 2 – Hollywood Casino 400 (Chase Race #4) (Post Happy Hour)
It’s Been A While Since We Saw A Backflip
This weekend the Sprint Cup Series is at Kansas Speedway for the second time in this 2011 season, and for the fourth race in their ten-race playoffs. Brad Keselowski won here in June on a fuel gamble, and gas mileage could easily become a factor in the Hollywood Casino 400 this Sunday. For this week’s Predictions, I’m going to shake things up a bit; instead of ranking the top 15 drivers and telling you who to avoid, I’m going to write my opinions on all of the Chase drivers going into the race as well as some of the drivers that weren’t able to make the 2011 “playoffs”. As you may or may not know, Greg Biffle will lead the field to the green flag on Sunday afternoon, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. My Practice Breakdown for Kansas 2–which includes overall average speeds–went up earlier today.
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Breaking Down The Chasers:
Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a bunch of cars to pass on Sunday (he starts 30th), but that’s pretty much been the norm for him this entire season as well as for his career at Kansas Speedway. In 2008, “Happy” pulled off a 6th-place finish despite starting 36th, and he finished 2nd at Chicago a few weeks ago after starting 30th. Harvick had the fastest lap in the first practice session on Saturday, and he has finished 11th or better in four of the last five Kansas races. The 29 Chevrolet has finished 12th or better in every Sprint Cup race since Bristol in late August and I don’t see that changing on Sunday.
Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl topped my rankings in my Preview earlier this week, and I still think he has a shot at the win on Sunday. He will roll off the grid in 2nd once the green flag waves, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the #99 Ford stay in the top 5 all day. This team ran a limited number of laps in practice on Saturday, which isn’t abnormal at all, and never ran ten consecutive laps (which I would have liked to see). In eight Kansas starts, Edwards has six top 10s and a best finish of 2nd. He was in the top 6 in both practice sessions, so you know Carl has the speed to get his seventh top 10 at this track on Sunday, and with a little luck he could visit victory lane (but I personally don’t see it happening).
Tony Stewart – “Smoke” qualified 23rd for the Hollywood Casino 400 but don’t let that fact turn you away from picking him on Sunday: the last time Tony started in the twenties in a Kansas race (2006) he ended up in victory lane. I wouldn’t expect that happen this time, though, but he does have a shot if fuel mileage comes into play. I think Stewart will end up right around his career average finish at this track, which is 12th.
Kurt Busch – The only practice that Kurt Busch ran ten consecutive laps was in Happy Hour, and he ended up 21st of the 22 drivers on the chart and a little under four miles-per-hour slower than the fastest guy, Matt Kenseth. I don’t like that one bit. Busch ended up 17th on the average speed chart and overall really struggled in practice, in my opinion. I don’t see him being much better than a 15th-place car on Sunday, though. He starts 17th.
Jimmie Johnson – SPEED commented how Chad Knaus and Jimmie thought they were struggling in practice, but I just don’t see it (other than the fact that they ran a whole bunch of laps). Johnson was 12th on the average speed chart and was in the top five in terms of ten-lap average during both Saturday sessions. He starts 19th, so he has some cars to pass, but that shouldn’t surprise many: in the last two Kansas races, Johnson has started 21st and 31st, and finished 2nd and 7th, respectively. Unless I’m missing something major that is causing this team problems, Johnson should be a top 5 car once it’s all said and done on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski – I liked what I heard at the end of practice, which was Brad Keselowski didn’t have a single complaint about the race car to his crew chief, Paul Wolfe. This Blue Deuce didn’t show an extraordinary amount of speed (19th on the average speed chart) but BK ended up 11th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour after being 14th on it in the second practice session. Going off of how Brad feels about the car, I like Keselowski for a top 10 finish on Sunday, and maybe a top 5 if he gambles on fuel again.
Matt Kenseth – Everything in front of me is telling my have Matt Kenseth as my favorite for Sunday, but I keep going back to the fact of this team’s “struggles” at the intermediate tracks in 2011. Like I said in my Preview, since Kenseth’s win back at Texas, he has yet to post a top 5 finish at the tri-oval intermediate tracks (Charlotte, Kansas, Kentucky, Atlanta, and Chicago) despite having some awesome cars. The #17 was fastest in ten-lap average in Happy Hour and was 5th on that board in the second session. He starts 4th and should be up front all day, but the question is whether or not this team can finish. If they can, Kenseth should be a contender for the win at the end.
Kyle Busch – This Toyota that “Rowdy” Busch has underneath him this weekend appears to be super fast, but there are a couple things that are making me avoid him this weekend. One, Kyle’s 22.4 average finish in eight starts at this track makes it one of his worst. And two, in seven mile-and-a-half races this season, Busch’s win in Kentucky has been his only top 10. Kyle will start the Hollywood Casino 400 in 3rd and looks to have enough speed to stay up there (top 6 in both Saturday practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average), but let’s just say history and recent performance isn’t on his side. If he wants to make a legitimate run at the championship this year, Busch will have to have a good race at Kansas on Sunday, that’s for sure. I’m not telling him to avoid the #18 like the plague, as I said in my Preview, but don’t be surprised if Busch disappoints.
Jeff Gordon – This is Gordon’s second-best track (statistically) on the circuit, and in eleven career starts he has notched eight top 5 finishes and has visited victory lane twice. He will start the Hollywood Casino 400 in 10th place, which is his average start here, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Jeff end up in his average finish at Kansas, which is 8th. The #24 Chevrolet was just 19th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, but it’s generally hard to get a handle on how this team will do on Sundays by just looking at their practices. Gordon has finished in the top 5 in each of the last five Kansas races and I consider him a lock for a top 10 on Sunday.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – I wouldn’t let Junior’s 4th-place ranking on the average speed chart fool you: his car was wicked loose in practice and this #88 team struggled mightily. Earnhardt will start Sunday’s race in 18th, and it’s going to take some major adjusting (maybe some luck as well) to get this Chevrolet near the top 10. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I just don’t see it happening. Junior’s average finish at Kansas is 18th, and remember that he finished 2nd here in June partly because of fuel mileage. I don’t see NASCAR’s golden boy much better than a teens driver on Sunday.
Ryan Newman – The Rocketman was great in his first three starts at Kansas, with a win and two 2nd-place finishes, but since then (eight races) he has just one top 10, which came in this race last season (9th). Newman will start Sunday’s race in 11th position, but I see him more of a 15th to 18th-place finisher once the checkered flag waves. The #39 Chevrolet was 15th out of 17 cars in ten-lap average during the second practice session, and 16th out of 22 in Happy Hour.
Denny Hamlin – I’m really not sure what to think of Hamlin this weekend. He starts 7th but was just 23rd on the average speed chart and really didn’t impress me much in practice whatsoever. He has four-straight finishes of 12th or better at Kansas, though, so that has to account for something, right? I might know more tomorrow when I read the crew chief notes, but as of right now (5:30 on Saturday evening) I don’t see Hamlin as a top 10 car at all on Sunday, which means I’m avoiding him.
“Non-Chasers” I Have My Eyes On:
Greg Biffle – The Biff will lead the field to the green flag on Sunday, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he can stay up there and lead laps all day, but will he be able to finish? Everyone knows how this team’s season has gone on the tracks that they should be great at, but that has to turn around sometime, doesn’t it? Biffle was 9th on the average speed chart and ended up 7th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. I had him ranked 5th coming into the weekend and that’s where I have him now as well.
Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne may start in the top 5, but I’ll go ahead and break the news to you: he has no chance of finishing there on Sunday. This may be the type of track that Red Bull (as well as Kahne) excels at, but this #4 hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at any of the tri-oval intermediates this season and is always at the top of the list when it comes to risk in putting it on your roster. At best, I see Kahne as a 12th-to-16th place car in the Hollywood Casino 400.
Paul Menard – Paul and this #27 team generally have some great races when they’re not very hyped, so fantasy owners of Menard may be in luck this weekend. He didn’t blow anyone away in practice (10th in average speed) like he normally does, but Paul will start this Sunday’s race in 6th and finished 8th in this race last year. I don’t see him as a top 10 pick, but anything is possible, I guess.
Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex will start 8th for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, which is the exact same spot that he started in the last race at Kansas Speedway in June. The bad news, though, is that he finished 20th in that race, which is also where Truex ended up in this weekend’s race last season. The #56 Toyota was 16th on the average speed chart but was in the top 10 in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average. That’s somewhat impressive, but I think Truex will end up between 16th and 20th on Sunday, which is where he has finished in the last three races here. His best finish at Kansas has been 11th in six career starts.
David Ragan – This is Ragan’s type of track and he’s driving for his Sprint Cup life right now (did you read the comments by Jack Roush?). Also, he’s got a damn fast Ford. The #6 ended up 3rd on the overall average speed chart and had the best ten-lap average during the first Saturday practice session. David followed that up with the fifth-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. He will start 13th in this Sunday’s race and has just one finish worse than 16th in five career Kansas starts. I see Ragan as a lock for a top 15 and maybe even a top 10.
Clint Bowyer – I like Clint Bowyer for a variety reasons… One, it seems like a driver that recently announces where they are going next year runs very well for the next couple races; two, this is his home track; three, he quit about 30 minutes before the end of Happy Hour because he was satisfied with his Chevrolet; four, he was 2nd in both Saturday practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average; and five, Bowyer had the best average practice speed on Saturday. Clint hasn’t had a top 10 at Kansas since 2007, but I think that could easily change on Sunday. The only downside to picking the #33 is that he starts Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 in 24th.
