Charlotte Bank of America 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Jimmie Johnson – This track isn’t called Lowes Motor Speedway anymore but it’s still Jimmie Johnson’s house. In twenty races at Charlotte Johnson has six wins and fourteen top tens. Earlier this year Johnson finished 28th but I’m not the least bit concerned (engine blew up with about 5 laps remaining). Perhaps the most surprising thing is that he didn’t lead any laps. His failure to lead a lap snapped a 18 race streak of leading laps at Charlotte. Johnson has been exceptional at every intermediate track recently (Kansas -1st, Chicagoland – 10th, Atlanta – 2nd, Michigan – 2nd, Kentucky – 3rd) and he’ll unquestionably be the favorite in the Bank of America 500. (Yahoo A Driver)
Matt Kenseth – In the Coca Cola 600 Matt Kenseth led more laps than anyone (103) and had the highest driver rating (124.4). His 14th place finish doesn’t truly reflect how good he was (6th place avg running position). In the last five Charlotte races Kenseth has been extremely consistent. His average finish is 8.4 and he’s raced in the top fifteen for 80.9% of the laps run. In 2000 Matt Kenseth won his first race at Charlotte. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – In this years running of the Coca Cola 600 Kyle Busch finished 32nd (accident, led 55 laps). However in the seven previous races he had an average finish of 4.1 (best in the series) and his loop data numbers are in a league of his own (most laps led – 505, most points scored, best average running position – 6th, and best driver rating – 120.7). (Yahoo A Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Carl Edwards – Edwards has only finished in the top ten once in the last six Charlotte races. In the global perspective of his career he’s had lots of success at Charlotte. His 13.3 average finish is a testament to that. It ranks as the 3rd best average finish in the series (since 2004). What I really like about Carl is his results at recent similar tracks (Kansas – 5th, Chicagoland – 4th, Atlanta – 5th, Kentucky – 5th). (Yahoo A Driver)
Kurt Busch – Last year Kurt Busch won the All-Star race and the following week he won the Coca Cola 600. He completely missed the setup in the fall race which was surprising (finished 30th). In this years Coca Cola 600 he finished 4th. His overall history is terrible at Charlotte but he’s arguably been the best 1.5 mile track racer in 2011. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Charlotte has always been a good track for Kahne. He’s a three time winner and he’s a master of the high line around the track. Since 2005 Kahne has the 5th best driver rating (95.9). Earlier this year Kahne finished 22nd but he was much better than that. On the last restart of the race he restarted on the front row but as soon as the green flag waved he ran out of gas (Youtube Video of the ending of the Coca Cola 600, wild stuff). (Yahoo B Driver)
Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Charlotte since 2007 (AKA – hasn’t finished in the top ten at Charlotte in the COT). Stewart won the fall race in 2003. Before his win he finished in the top ten in 70% of his races. Since 2004 he’s only finished in the top ten 27% percent of the time. Since Atlanta Tony Stewart has looked really good at 1.5 mile tracks. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kevin Harvick – Harvick won in May but by no measure did he have the best car. No credible person can say that. He was probably more surprised than anyone that he won. His Yahoo Race Chart is pretty ugly. His average running position was 15th and he only raced in the top fifteen 56% percent of the race. In the last three Charlotte races Harvick’s finished 1st, 8th and 11th. (Yahoo A Driver).
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski’s best finish at Charlotte was his first (12th). The quick bottom line about Keselowski is what historical stats about him matter anyways. In May Keselowski won the pole for the Coca Cola 600. (Yahoo B Driver)
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B+ = Good Pick
Jeff Gordon – Gordon’s either been a feast or famine driver at Charlotte. He’s a five time winner but his good / bad finish extremes are not what I’m looking for when I make a fantasy pick. In the last two Charlotte races Gordon’s finished 20th and 23rd so it’s looking like he’s in the midst of another prolonged dry spell at the track where he first visited victory lane. Things haven’t gone the best for Gordon in the Chase so pick him at your own risk. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has back to back top ten finishes at Charlotte. In May Hamlin finished 10th and was tied with Kenseth for having the best average running position (6th) in NASCAR’s longest race. I would avoid Hamlin solely based on how he’s performed in the Chase this year. (Yahoo A Driver)
Greg Biffle – In this years Coca Cola 600 Greg Biffle led 50 laps but he was short on fuel (Yahoo Race Chart) and had to pit (finished 13th). Biffle’s had really good performances on intermediate tracks this year but something always seems to happen and neglects him of a good finish. In last years Bank of America 500 Biffle finished 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)
David Ragan – Ragan has back to back top ten finishes at Charlotte. How many other tracks can you say that about Ragan? In May Ragan had enough gas and finished second to Kevin Harvick. His finish was far from a fluke. His 7th place average running position was second to only Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin. (Yahoo C Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Now it’s official Clint Bowyer will be leaving RCR at the end of the season (Press Conference Video). Personally I’m not a big fan of having lame duck drivers on my team but it hasn’t hurt him so far. At Charlotte Bowyer performs really good in the fall race (2007 -2nd, 2008 -12th, 2009 -6th, 2010 -17th). At the Texas night race earlier this year Bowyer finished 2nd and led 44 laps. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Ryan Newman – Charlotte hasn’t traditionally been a very good track for Ryan Newman. His 21st place average finish is a testament to that. He’s a 9 time pole winner so there’s some positive fantasy implications for at least giving him a spot on your bench. He almost won the fall race in 2007 but he crashed while leading (Youtube video, pretty good stuff). (Yahoo B Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt almost snapped his winless streak in May but he ran out of gas in turn 4. Earnhardt eventually coasted to the finish line in 7th. It was his first top ten at Charlotte since 2008. In between his non-top ten streak his average finish was 33rd and his best finish was 22nd. (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano – Charlotte is statistically Joey Logano’s best track. In five races at this 1.5 mile track “Sliced Bread” has only finished outside the top ten once. His worst Charlotte finish is 13th. Earlier this year Logano finished 3rd in the Coca Cola 600 but his 23rd place average running position tells a better story of how competitive he was. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Half of David Reutimann’s wins are at Charlotte (only has two) and I think there’s some bargain fantasy value here for the Bank of America 500. Beyond his fuel mileage win he also has three straight top ten finishes. Charlotte is the only track on the circuit that Reutimann has finished in the top ten more than twice. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – Last year Jamie McMurray finished 1st and 2nd at Charlotte. In both races he started 27th and drove his way to the lead where he paced the field for 94 laps. In the 2011 Coca Cola 600 McMurray finished 37th (engine) but he did manage to lead 5 laps. At Chicagoland McMurray once again had an engine failure so be careful if you pick him. McMurray also had an engine failure at Kentucky. (Yahoo B Driver)
Mark Martin – Martin has been a pleasant surprise at some recent intermediate track races (Kansas – 10th, Chicagoland – 9th, Michigan – 4th). Earlier this year he finished 34th due to an accident. That snapped his streak of 8 consecutive top 20’s at Charlotte. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Brian Vickers – Vickers has had pretty good Red Bull cars at Charlotte but typically something freaky happens to him such as losing a wheel (youtube). Vickers has typically been about a top fifteen car on intermediate tracks this year and I think he’s also a good driver for getting out of sequence with the competition. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Amborse has one top ten finish (6th) and the rest are outside the top fifteen (26th, 22nd, 36th and 16th). His results on other intermediate tracks have been about 20th so that’s where I’ll project he’ll finish. Earlier this year he was better on intermediate tracks but he faded around the midpoint of the season. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
AJ Allmendinger – In May AJ finished 5th at Charlotte. Even with that result his average finish is still 23rd. His average starting position is also 23rd but in the last two Charlotte races he’s started 2nd and 3rd so he’s got qualifying points potential. Since Michigan in June Allmendinger has finished in the top fifteen in 10 of 16 races (62.5%). His Chicagoland and Kansas finishes suggest he’s a driver you should steer clear of unless your looking for qualifying points. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – In the 2008 Chase Jeff Burton took the checkered flag in the Bank of America 500. Since then his best finish is 14th and all of his other finishes are in the 20th to 25th place range. The upside about Burton is that lots of his recent intermediate track results have been teen finishes (Chicagoland -15th, Atlanta -13th, Michigan -17th). (Yahoo B Driver)
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C = Not Gonna Pick Him
Paul Menard – Menard has two top fifteen finishes at Charlotte in nine races. Last year in RPM equipment he finished 8th in the Coca Cola 600 and in a pre-rookie year (2006) he finished 14th. All of his other finishes are 22nd or worse. His 12th place finish at Kansas is his only top fifteen since mid August. (Yahoo C Driver)
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has two top tens at Charlotte and his best finish was in his pre-rookie year (7th). Truex is truly a 20th place driver. 20th is his average finish and I don’t think it’s skewed any. His best finish on an intermediate track since April is 14th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Out of all the drivers who I rank on a weekly basis Montoya has the worst average finish (25.9). I know I’m not interested in Montoya this week despite his two recent Charlotte finishes of 11th and 12th. There’s also no reason to expect any Yahoo! qualifying points from Montoya, his average starting position is also the worst of the drivers who I rank weekly (25.8).
