Talladega Good Sam Club 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Kevin Harvick – There’s not a safer pick you can make at Talladega then Kevin Harvick. In April Harvick finished 5th and worked heavily with Clint Bowyer. I expect this duo to work together again and have similar results. Another advantage for Harvick is that he’ll have three teammates who are all committed to helping him succeed. Last year at Talladega Harvick finished 1st and 2nd. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson won in April and he worked with none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Johnson has been an extremely safe pick in the Talladega Chase race for years now (4 consecutive top tens). His non-racing strategy until the end has really worked out well for him. Johnson might also be worth valuable qualifying points this week as well. In May he started second in what was a Hendrick 1-2-3-4 sweep of the top four spots on qualifying day. (Yahoo A Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski isn’t a one time wonder at Talladega. He also has two other top tens to his name. At tracks like Talladega everyone wants to partner up with someone who’s successful and I think more drivers than ever will be willing to help him out. Look for him to partner up with Kurt Busch. This duo will be formidable on Sunday and will certainly contend for the win. (Yahoo B Driver)
Kurt Busch – In the three restrictor plate races this year Kurt Busch has the best driver rating (103.8) and he’s averaged 32.6 points a race. Penske is a two car team and as expected I’m projecting his draft partner will be Brad Keselowski. Another possible drafting partner is Regan Smith. I’ve said this in probably all of my restrictor plate fantasy previews but Kurt Busch in the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race. During Speed Weeks he won the Bud Shootout but that doesn’t pay any points. (Yahoo A Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – How can anyone not like Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Talladega? It’s the patriotic thing to do. He hasn’t won since 2004 but he’s still a solid driver. One big plus about Junior is that he’ll most likely be working with Jimmie Johnson again and I don’t think he’ll have any problems. In April Junior started 4th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Carl Edwards – Don’t let his 20.9 average finish scare you off. Carl Edwards is the real deal on plate tracks. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and he finished a strong 6th in April. Edwards knows how to get to the front of the pack on plate tracks but he’s had some problems in the past once he got there. Remember he was leading before the “big one” with Brad Keselowski ensued. Edwards has scored the 8th most points on plate tracks this year (98). (Yahoo A Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has three consecutive top tens at Talladega and he’s one of the best pushers in the series. The driver who I expect he’ll be pushing is my projected winner so I think good things are in store for Bowyer this week. Earlier this year he finished second in the three-way photo finish. Bowyer led more laps than anyone (38) and he had the best average running position (5th). Last fall Clint Bowyer won his first race at a track longer than a mile. (Yahoo B Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
David Ragan – I think Ragan will team up with Matt Kenseth this week. In the July Daytona race they worked together and finished 1st and 2nd. In the Daytona 500 Ragan almost won but he jumped a late restart and ruined his chances. I feel pretty strongly that plate tracks are David Ragan’s best track type. (Yahoo C Driver)
Paul Menard – Menard finished 12th this spring working with Kevin Harvick for the first half the race then Burton the second half. Since 2008 he’s been pretty competitive at Talladega. His accolades include a second place finish and five top fifteens. In the new era of bump drafting (3 races) Menard has scored MORE points than anyone and has the best average finish. (Yahoo C Driver)
Joey Logano – In five races at Talladega Joey Logano has only finished outside the top ten once (12.6 avg finish, best in series since 2004). That’s quite a feat considering the “wild card” nature of this track. Earlier this year in the bump drafting spectacular Logano finished 10th working heavily with Kyle Busch. Overall in 2011 Logano has scored the 5th most points on restrictor plate tracks (32.3pts a race) and he has the 5th best driver rating (94.1). (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Gordon almost won in April working with Mark Martin. Gordon has six career wins and has finished in the top ten in nearly half his starts at NASCAR’s biggest track. In the last two races here he’s finished 8th and 3rd. In May Jeff Gordon also won the pole. What I don’t like about Jeff Gordon is how he’s been performing in the Chase. Some drivers are just snake bitten in the Chase and it looks like Jeff Gordon’s one of them. Another possible drafting partner for Gordon might be Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne. (Yahoo A Driver)
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth hasn’t had a top ten at Talladega since 2006. With the exception of the July Daytona race Kenseth (finished second) has struggled on plate tracks this year. He crashed in the Daytona 500 and he crashed at Talladega. Matt typically does better at plate tracks when handling is a premium. Drivers certainly won’t have handling problems this Sunday. (Yahoo A Driver)
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B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Mark Martin – Martin hates this place and avoided it during his partial retirement. Coincidentally it’s been pretty nice to him since he’s been back. In the last three Talladega races he’s finished 5th, 11th and 8th. One possible negative about Martin is that I think he’ll work with Jeff Gordon and he’s been a magnet for problems lately. Martin qualified 3rd earlier this year. (Yahoo B Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya finished 30th at Talladega earlier this year working with Jamie McMurray. Last year at Talladega he finished 3rd in both races. At Daytona this year Montoya finished in the top ten in both races (6th & 9th). Look for him to be running in the back of the pack until the end of the race with McMurray. These two have done a good job drafting with each other. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – McMurray is a high risk / high reward driver at plate tracks. He’s capable of getting the job done but he’s just as capable of finishing 35th. One concern about McMurray is that Montoya is his only teammate and if he has problems Jamie might have a hard time finding a quality drafting partner. In the three plate races this year McMurray’s finished 18th, 21st and 22nd. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Tony Stewart – Stewart has been terrible at Talladega lately. He’s a driver who’s stats are padded by much earlier success. Since he won at Talladega in 2008 he hasn’t finished better than 16th. His average finish since his win is 24.4. Stewart has scored the 6th most points on plate tracks this season (92). In May Stewart worked with David Gilliland (very underrated plate racer). (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is an exceptional bump drafter but you just don’t see him running at the end of these races. Hamlin has four top tens at Talladega but all seven of his other finishes are 21st or worse. In 2011 Hamlin’s average finish on plate tracks is 19th. Look for Hamlin to once again have Newman be his wing man. (Yahoo A Driver)
Ryan Newman – The fact that he openly states he hates this track should scare you away. He doesn’t like it because he crashes a lot. His average finish in the last four Talladega races is 29.75. That shouldn’t be good in anyone’s book unless you chronically pick drivers who finish 43rd. On plate tracks this year his average finish is 23rd and he’s averaged 22.7 points per race. Look for him to team up with Denny Hamlin. (Yahoo B Driver)
Greg Biffle – Biffle finished 7th earlier this year at Talladega. In the last five races here he has three top tens and has finished in the top twenty every race. Outside of this last five race stretch Biffle has zero other top tens. Biffle’s had a lot of tough luck this year and that can be a fatal at a track like this. Look for him to possibly work with Carl Edwards. (Yahoo A Driver)
Brian Vickers – Vickers is so good at Talladega that he can win with a 30th place car. Since the 2005 Talladega Chase race he’s had somewhat of a knack here. Since then his average finish is 17.7 but its largely skewed due to bad finishes. Vickers has only scored 51 points on plate tracks this year (17 points a race) so beware. Look for him to work with Kasey Kahne in the Good Sam Club 500. (Yahoo B Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Kyle Busch – If it wasn’t for a win at Talladega in 2008 than Kyle Busch would probably have about a 30th place average finish. His next best finish other than a win is ninth. In the new era (3 races) of bump drafting he’s been competitive. He has two top tens at Daytona and a 35th (accident) place finish at Talladega. Look for him to work with Joey Logano once again. In past plate races they’ve had problems hooking up but they were as good as anyone when it came to switching drafting positions. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kasey Kahne – Kahne has a pair of second place finishes at Talladega but beyond that his history is pretty bleak. Kahne has no other top tens despite the fact he’s raced here fifteen times. That’s a top ten percentage of 13%. I’m projecting he’ll be working with Brian Vickers. (Yahoo B Driver)
David Reutimann – Reutimann has finished 14th or better in the last three Talladega races (14th, 4th and 14th). All of his prior finishes have resulted in a finish of 20th or worse. Reutimann has an average finish of 23rd this year on plate tracks. Look for him to work with Martin Treux Jr. (Yahoo B Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has scored the third most points on plate tracks this season (101, 33.7 points per race) His finishes this year are 11th, 11th and 10th. In May he finished 11th (only top 15) but beyond that things are pretty bleak. I think he’ll be working with Ambrose. (Yahoo B Driver)
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C = Not Gonna Pick Him
Martin Treux Jr. – Truex finished one spot ahead of his teammate at Talladega earlier this year (13th). He’s had some real tough luck here (where doesn’t he?) throughout his career and his 24.2 average finish reflects that. However in the last three races he’s finished 12th, 6th and 13th. Treux has averaged 22.6 points per race on plate tracks this season. (Yahoo B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose finished 4th in his first Talladega race. He certainly didn’t back it up though. His last four Talladega finishes are 34th, 37th, 34th and 32nd. In the new era of drafting he’s scored the least amount of points of any driver in my preview. He’s scored a grand total of 47 points (15.6 points per race). His best finish in the last three plate races is 17th. I’m projecting he’ll be working with AJ Allmendinger. There’s also a good possibility Ambrose might also work with a Roush Fenway car. (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – With the way Burton’s run this year do you think his luck will change at Talladega? I’m betting not. He’s had some really good plate cars as of late but he hasn’t done a good job closing the deal. In the last six Talladega races he has three top tens and three finishes outside the top fifteen. Burton has thirteen top tens in thirty five races at Talladega. (Yahoo B Driver)
