Scouting Report: Martinsville Tums Fast Relief 500
How to make an informed pick for Martinsville:
The best method for making an informed fantasy pick for Martinsville is to study drivers average finishes. I know it doesn’t sound glamorous, but that’s what really counts this week. This is a drivers track where the man behind the wheel in the difference maker.
Starting position is important at Martinsville but don’t get to hyped up about it. The overall importance of qualifying at Martinsville can easily be debunked. The best drivers win at Martinsville, not the best starting position.
Here’s how I would rank the variables in terms of importance this week
1) Recent / Overall Track History at Martinsville
2) Practice
3) Momentum
4) Starting Position
Martinsville Top Tier Elite Drivers:
Jeff Gordon – The Chase has been a huge disappointment for Gordon and now that he’s semi officially “done” I think he’ll bounce back in a big way. All year-long Gordon has been good on the shorter tracks in the circuit (Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire) and this is his best track . Before Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin started winning all the races at Martinsville Gordon was the driver to beat. Gordon is a 7-7-7 driver at Martinsville. 7 wins, 7th place average finish and 7th place average start.
Jimmie Johnson – 2011 hasn’t been a typical year for Jimmie Johnson. Even his 11th place finish (caught speeding on pit road late, led 65 laps) at Martinsville earlier this year was out of the norm for him. It marked his first non-top ten finish at Martinsville since his first race here in 2002. Look for the six-time winner to be one of a handful of drivers who will be contenders for the win in the Tums Fast Relief 500.
Denny Hamlin – Nothing has been good for Denny Hamlin as of late but Martinsville should be like medicine to him. Since 2007 Hamlin has four wins and an impressive 3.5 average finish. His worst finish in this stretch is 12th and he’s led 1,010 laps. In April Hamlin had an average running position of fifth and he posted the second best driver rating (118.7). Hamlin will be getting a little extra practice this week because he’ll be racing Kyle Busch’s Truck in the Camping World Truck Series.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch and the 18 team have been exceptional at Martinsville as of late. They’re also a great picking alternative to get out of sync with the competition if you need to pull off a fantasy NASCAR “Hail Mary”. Kyle Busch has been a serious contender in the last four Martinsville races. In these races he’s finished 4th, 4th, 3rd and 22nd. His finish of 22nd was the result of a late wreck (Yahoo Race Chart). In April Kyle Busch led the most laps (151), had the best driver rating (133.4), and had the best average running position (3rd).
Kevin Harvick – In April Harvick proved why he’s called the “Closer” with his late pass for the win. It was pretty impressive considering his average running position was 16th. In the last three Martinsville races Harvick has been as good as anybody. Last fall he finished 3rd but in the 2010 spring race he finished 35th. In the 100 laps he completed he was pretty good though (Yahoo Chart). Despite only completing 20% of the laps his driver rating was the 7th best.
Martinsville Top Front Runner (after the Elite Top Tier)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has finished in the top eleven in seven of the last nine Martinsville races. Earlier this year he led 91 laps (18.2% of the race) and finished 9th. After the “Top Tier Elites” I think Bowyer presents a good fantasy alternative.
Martinsville Back Runners who you should avoid:
Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Paul Menard, Martin Truex Jr., David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over the last five races:
- Carl Edwards
- Matt Kenseth
- Kasey Kahne
- Brad Keselowski
- Tony Stewart
- Kyle Busch
- Brian Vickers
- Clint Bowyer
- Jeff Burton
- Kevin Harvick
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
- Pre Race Loop Data
- Post Race Loop Data from earlier this year
- Short Track Competition Profile
- Entry List
VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:
- Jimmie Johnson 4/1
- Denny Hamlin 5/1
- Kyle Busch 6/1
- Kevin Harvick 7/1
- Tony Stewart 7/1
- Jeff Gordon 8/1
- Carl Edwards 12/1
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
- Ryan Newman 20/1
- Kurt Busch 22/1
