Texas AAA 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Top Tier Elite” Picks
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth snapped his long 76 race winless streak in April at Texas Motor Speedway. Kenseth didn’t only win, he dominated. He led 169 laps and had a near perfect 144.7 driver rating. Since 2007 Kenseth has truly been a “Elite Top Tier” driver. He has the best average finish (5.9), best average running position (9.1), best driver rating (108.4), ran and he’s led 354 laps (third most). His win at Charlotte last month is why I’m projecting him as the race winner.
Who do you think will win the AAA 500? Get in your VOTE
Jimmie Johnson – His championship aspirations are over but that doesn’t mean he won’t get more “W’s”. The least amount of wins Johnson has accumulated in a season is three so I think he has another in him. Johnson won at Texas in 2007 and in the last three races his average finish is 6.3. Johnson has only finished outside the top fifteen twice at Texas in his entire career and both of those were due to crashes. What I really like about Johnson is how strong he’s been on intermediate tracks in the second half of the season. Don’t let his Charlotte performance scare you away from picking him, remember he was running in the top ten before the late accident parked him.
Greg Biffle – There’s no question Biffle has problems closing the deal this season. However I wouldn’t overlook him this week. He’s due for good fortune and I think it will come this week. Even though he’s a remarkably inconsistent driver no one can say that about him at Texas. He’s finished in the top ten in six consecutive races. No other driver in the series has an active streak longer than two. In these six races he’s led more laps than anyone (339), has the best average finish (5.9) and the best driver rating (113.8).
Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Texas since 2009 but I think he’ll be a top tier driver Sunday. Throughout the Chase Stewart has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. He won at Chicagoland, ran good at Kansas before pit strategy stranded him mid pack (finished 15th), and ran good at Charlotte (8th, pit strategy issues once again). In these three races his 115.8 driver rating ranks as the third best in the series. His 112 points accumulated ranks as the 4th best (37.3 points per race).
Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three time Texaswinner who finished 3rd in April. He started second and recorded his 4th highest driver rating of this season (116.0). Edwards is always a serious threat at 1.5 mile tracks. His recent history at Texas isn’t the best but you need to take in account him racing with a broken leg and a crash in the last 3/4ths of race after he ran good. In the three 1.5 mile track races in the Chase Edwards has finished 4th (Chicagoland), 5th (Kansas) and 3rd (Charlotte). I would expect similar results but there’s also a possibility he might start dialing back and race conservatively (4 tires every pit stop, no fuel strategy etc).
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Kyle Busch – Busch has had poor results in recent Texas races but that doesn’t mean he had poor performances. Since the fall 2009 race the argument could easily be made that he’s been perhaps the best at Texas. He should’ve won the fall 2009 race but the 18 team was short on fuel (led 232 laps, 2nd place avg running position, finished 11th). In the spring 2010 race he finished 3rd. Last fall Kyle Busch had perhaps the best car once again but his freedom of speech demonstration on pit road set him back a couple of laps. He was good earlier this year but a loose lug nut spoiled his day (finished 16th, 8th place avg running position). This week you also can’t discount his impressive back of the pack 2nd place finish at Charlotte (similar track).
Kevin Harvick – Texas has always been one of Kevin Harvick’s better intermediate tracks. He finished 20th earlier this year but I bet they were probably trying out something new in preparation for this very race. If they have any problems then they could always turn to Bowyer for notes (finished second). In the three preceding races to this years Texas race Harvick finished 5th, 7th and 6th. In recent intermediate track races Harvick has finished 6th (Charlotte), 6th (Kansas), 2nd (Chicagoland) and 7th (Atlanta).
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Check out:
- Texas AAA 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Front Runner” Picks
- Texas AAA 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Mid Pack” Picks
- Texas AAA 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Back Runner” Picks
