Scouting Report: Texas AAA 500
How to make an informed fantasy pick for the AAA 500:
1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. I would specifically recommend you study what happened in the Atlanta, Chicagoland, Kansas and Charlotte races. The key to making a good pick can be found by studying these races.
2) As with any track it’s important to study a drivers track history. When I write my fantasy content I typically go back to the start of the COT era at the track.
3) Practice is extremely important this week. Picking a driver who struggles in practice certainly won’t pay off this week.
4) Qualifying and track position is important every week but in today’s NASCAR it can be overcome quite easily with pit strategy. Pick the best cars, and only use qualifying as a tie breaker when you need to pick between drivers.
Elite Drivers at Texas:
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth snapped his long 76 race winless streak in April at Texas Motor Speedway. Kenseth didn’t only win, he dominated. He led 169 laps and had a near perfect 144.7 driver rating. Since 2007 Kenseth has truly been a “Elite Top Tier” driver. He has the best average finish (5.9), best average running position (9.1), best driver rating (108.4), ran and he’s led 354 laps (third most). His win at Charlotte last month is why I’m projecting him as the race winner.
Jimmie Johnson – His championship aspirations are over but that doesn’t mean he won’t get more “W’s”. The least amount of wins Johnson has accumulated in a season is three so I think he has another in him. Johnson won at Texas in 2007 and in the last three races his average finish is 6.3. Johnson has only finished outside the top fifteen twice at Texas in his entire career and both of those were due to crashes. What I really like about Johnson is how strong he’s been on intermediate tracks in the second half of the season. Don’t let his Charlotte performance scare you away from picking him, remember he was running in the top ten before the late accident parked him.
Greg Biffle – There’s no question Biffle has problems closing the deal this season. However I wouldn’t overlook him this week. He’s due for good fortune and I think it will come this week. Even though he’s a remarkably inconsistent driver no one can say that about him at Texas. He’s finished in the top ten in six consecutive races. No other driver in the series has an active streak longer than two. In these six races he’s led more laps than anyone (339), has the best average finish (5.9) and the best driver rating (113.8).
Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Texas since 2009 but I think he’ll be a top tier driver Sunday. Throughout the Chase Stewart has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. He won at Chicagoland, ran good at Kansas before pit strategy stranded him mid pack (finished 15th), and ran good at Charlotte (8th, pit strategy issues once again). In these three races his 115.8 driver rating ranks as the third best in the series. His 112 points accumulated ranks as the 4th best (37.3 points per race).
Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three time Texaswinner who finished 3rd in April. He started second and recorded his 4th highest driver rating of this season (116.0). Edwards is always a serious threat at 1.5 mile tracks. His recent history at Texas isn’t the best but you need to take in account him racing with a broken leg and a crash in the last 3/4ths of race after he ran good. In the three 1.5 mile track races in the Chase Edwards has finished 4th (Chicagoland), 5th (Kansas) and 3rd (Charlotte). I would expect similar results but there’s also a possibility he might start dialing back and race conservatively (4 tires every pit stop, no fuel strategy etc).
Check out more of driver rankings : “Elite Top Tier“, “Front Runners“, “Mid Packers” and “Back Runners”
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
- Texas Pre Race Loop Data Book
- Box Score From The Texas Race Earlier This Year
- 5 Year Texas Averages
- Texas Entry List
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over The Last Five Races:
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Tony Stewart
- Matt Kenseth
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Clint Bowyer
- Jeff Burton
- Jimmie Johnson
- Brad Keselowski
VegasInsider.com Odds To Win
- Jimmie Johnson 5/1
- Kyle Busch 5/1
- Tony Stewart 6/1
- Jeff Gordon 6/1
- Matt Kenseth 7/1
- Carl Edwards 7/1
- Kevin Harvick 10/1
- Denny Hamlin 14/1
- Kurt Busch 16/1
- Clint Bowyer 18/1
