Scouting Report: Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500
How to make an informed pick for the Kobalt Tools 500:
1) Practice will be extremely important this week and luckily we get to see two practice sessions before qualifying (weekend schedule of events). This will not be your typical Phoenix race weekend. The track changed in such significant ways that solely going off past Phoenix information will get you lapped this weekend. In fantasy racing it’s always best to go off the most recent data and none will be more relevant then practice this weekend.
2) Qualifying and track position will be a must at the newly reconfigured Phoenix International Raceway. In all of the driver interviews I’ve seen about the new track surface they all sounded hesitant that a second groove didn’t exist yet. However Phoenix track officials have been hard at work and have been artificially laying down rubber on the track so come race time this might be a non issue (Pictures). On Saturday there will also be a Nationwide race so I think a second groove will come in.
3) Since the new Phoenix layout is substantially different I’m choosing to study Richmond as a good reference point for how to approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. I think the new layout looks a lot more like Richmond then it does the old Phoenix.
Drivers to watch in the Kobalt Tools 500:
Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February.
Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).
Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.
Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th).
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor.
(NOTE: All of these drivers participated in the August tire test and they all participated in the October open test).
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last five races:
- Tony Stewart
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Matt Kenseth
- Greg Biffle
- Clint Bowyer
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Brad Keselowski
- Jimmie Johnson
VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500:
- Jimmie Johnson 4/1
- Tony Stewart 5/1
- Jeff Gordon 6/1
- Carl Edwards 7/1
- Greg Biffle 10/1
- Matt Kenseth 10/1
- Denny Hamlin 12/1
- Kyle Busch 12/1
- Kevin Harvick 15/1
- Kurt Busch 15/1
