Scouting Report: Homestead-Miami Ford 400
How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Ford 400:
1) Pick the best intermediate track drivers of the year. You’ll never have better information then you will this week. You’ve just watched 10 months of racing.
2) Practice makes perfect. As is the case with every intermediate track practice (Happy Hour on Friday this week) is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.
3) Pick drivers with momentum. At the end of the season some teams step up their game and others are getting out the golf clubs and playing on their houses instead using special mats for this, since there are different review options where you can get this. Pick the drivers who have looked good in recent weeks.
4) Because of the progressive banking and the ability for passing qualifying is an overrated variable this week
Drivers to watch this week:
Tony Stewart – Now’s not the time to bet against Stewart. He’s a man on a mission and won the last time the series visited an intermediate track. He has won at Homestead before but that win doesn’t hold any relevancy because the track was under a different configuration at the time. His recent history is nothing to brag about but he did finish 8th last year (17th place average running position).
Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion of the Ford 400 and he has six consecutive top seven finishes in NASCAR’s season finale. Last year Edwards recorded a perfect 150 driver rating and led 190 laps. Edwards also might provide vital qualifying points this week. Last year he started second and in 2008 he started fourth. Since 2005 Edwards has a 4.3 average finish (best in series) and a 7.5 average running position (best in series).
Kevin Harvick – Harvick has never won at Homestead but his 3rd (2008), 2nd (2009) and 3rd (2010) in the last three races is pretty impressive. His 2.6 average finish in this stretch is even better than Carl Edwards (3.0). If I were to pick Harvick at any intermediate track on the schedule this is the race I would pick him. In the last three races his average running position (6.3) is tied for the best in the series and no driver has ran more laps in the top fifteen then him (94.8% of laps).
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won this race in 2007 and more importantly he’s in a Ford. Beyond the Blue Oval brigade theirs only a handful of drivers who will be in the mix for the win at Homestead-Miami. Last season Kenseth finished 9th and had a 7th place average running position. His 107.7 driver rating ranked as the 5th best.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne has been a top tier intermediate track driver throughout the Chase. I don’t expect the Ford 400 to be any different. Last year in his Red Bull Toyota he started on the pole and finished 6th. In the last three intermediate track races he’s finished 3rd (Texas), 4th (Charlotte) and 2nd (Kansas).
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
- Pre Race Loop Data Book
- Loop Data From Last Years Race
- Chase Statistics
- Past Race Winners / Past Pole Winners
- Entry List
- Schedule of Events
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum Over The Last 5 Races:
- Tony Stewart
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Denny Hamlin
- Jeff Burton
- Greg Biffle
- Clint Bowyer
- AJ Allmendinger
- Martin Treux Jr.
- Marcos Ambrose
VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:
- Carl Edwards 5/2
- Tony Stewart 7/2
- Matt Kenseth 7/1
- Jimmie Johnson 8/1
- Kyle Busch 9/1
- Kevin Harvick 10/1
- Jeff Gordon
- Kasey Kahne 18/1
- Greg Biffle 18/1
- Denny Hamlin 18/1
