Juan Pablo Montoya 2012 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2011 Stats: Points Finish 21st, 0 Wins, 2 Top Fives, 8 Top Tens, Average Running Position 17.2, Average Finish 18.5, Laps Led 125, Driver Rating 77.2
2012 will mark Juan Pablo Montoya’s sixth season as a full time driver in the Sprint Cup Series. In some ways this was perhaps his most disappointing season to date. His numbers were similar to his first two seasons in NASCAR’s top series.
At the start of last season the 42 was competitive. In the first seven races of the season he finished in the top thirteen five times. After this early stretch at no point did he ever finish in the top thirteen for two races consecutively. For fantasy racers that’s a big problem.
Juan Pablo Montoya is a top tier driver but EGR is a mid tier team. When the organization was up to par in 2009 Montoya was running neck to neck with Jimmie Johnson in the Chase. That certainly isn’t an easy task.
There’s two variables that are holding Montoya back:
1) EGR – not where they need to be
2) His aggressive driving style
Strengths- Montoya’s ability on road courses is well known but I also like him on both the big flat tracks and the small flat tracks.
Weaknesses- EGR’s weakness is their aero department. When it comes to intermediate tracks you can pencil him in for a lack luster finish.
Intermediate Track Grade- B-, Montoya can get the job done on intermediate tracks but his results better reflect EGR’s standing in the series. Montoya’s best intermediate tracks are Texas, Atlanta and Charlotte. A large part of his success on these tracks can be attributed to his proficiency on running the high line.
Last season he averaged 25.8 points per race on this track type. It’s not a very high number but he still outscored Mark Martin, Joey Logano, Regan Smith, Jamie McMurray and Martin Treux Jr.
Flat Track Grade- B, Montoya is a good poor mans pick on flat tracks. He can run with the big boys and come home with a good finish (not saying it happens every time). His average finish on the big flats last season was 22nd (13th place average running position) and his average finish on the small flats was 18th. When it comes to picking Montoya on this track type it’s always important to note that he’s a high risk / high reward driver.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, Montoya finished 9th and 6th at Daytona last season but his Talladega results weren’t as good (23rd and 30th).
At Daytona he’s finished in the top ten in four out of the last five races. In 2010 at Talladega he finished 3rd in both races. He has a good feel for these tracks and him and McMurray are dedicated to working with each other.
Short Track Grade- B-, Montoya has the perfect amount of “hate” that I like in drivers at short tracks but the finishes just aren’t there. In terms of his fantasy viability on this track type I would go 1)Martinsville 2)Richmond 3)Bristol.
Road Course Track Grade- A, 2011 was a down year for Montoya on road courses. At Infineon he had a top five run with five laps to go but finished 22nd (Kasey Kahne & Brad Keselowski problems). At Watkins Glen he finished 7th.
How to use Juan Pablo Montoya from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2012? I would really focus on using Montoya at road courses and flat tracks. If you’re in an allocation league don’t be afraid to sneak him in for a plate race.
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