Kyle Busch 2012 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2011 Stats: Points Finish 12th, 4 Wins, 14 Top Fives, 18 Top Tens, Average Running Position 10.4, Average Finish 13.0, Laps Led 1,455, Driver Rating 104.1
Strengths- Kyle Busch is good at every discipline it takes to win in the Sprint Cup Series. Him and the 18 team are capable of winning on any given weekend.
The M&M’s team also has the intangible of being the best with everything associated with pit road (best pit crew & best getting on and off pit road).
Weaknesses- Kyle Busch is an elite talent but he’s his own worst enemy. In 2012 there will be no “new” Kyle Busch contrary to any speculative rumors. Kyle Busch isn’t a bad person, he’s just an emotional person behind the wheel of a 3,400 pound machine (often times a bad combination).
Another notable weakness of Kyle Busch and the 18 team is that come Chase time for whatever reason things go down hill. He’s arguably the best regular season driver but championships aren’t won in that segment of the season.
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Despite missing one race on this track type last season Kyle Busch still scored the 10th most points on these venues. When you give him his 32 point intermediate track average you can project him as the 6th best driver on this track type last season. Before the Chase started Kyle Busch had the best driver rating in the series (110.1). Last season he won two races on this track type (Kentucky and Michigan).
On this track type Kyle Busch can win at any of these venues but I wouldn’t recommend people pick him in a Chase race. In that segment of the season unexpected things often happen to him.
Flat Track Grade- A-, I like Kyle Busch at both the small and large flat tracks.
At Pocono he’s been as good as anyone in the last two years. His finishes in this time frame are 2nd, 3rd, 23rd and 2nd. Pocono has traditionally been rough on him but times have changed. It’s good to have Denny Hamlin as a teammate and look at his notes.
At Indy he’s been solid there throughout his career and his only finish outside the top fifteen is due to an engine failure. Five of his seven finishes are in the top ten. Kyle Busch hasn’t been a serious contender at the Brickyard but he’s a reliable high single digit driver.
Phoenix is a site of his second career win and in the first race of 2011 he finished second. In the fall race his team struggled with engine problems throughout the weekend. He did drive his way to the front though before his engine let go (Yahoo race chart).
Since 2009 Kyle Busch has finished in the top 11 in every New Hampshire race with the exception of the first race of 2011 (cut tire).
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B, Kyle Busch has a great feel on the plate tracks. The problem is that his finishes don’t consistently reflect how well he ran.
As a fantasy pick I like him a lot more at Daytona. He’s led in ten straight races and finished 5th and 8th last season. Kyle Busch is particularly good in the summer night time race when the track is slicker.
Talladega is in the conversation as to what track is Kyle Busch’s worst . Since 2005 Kyle Busch has 1 win at Talladega and only one other top ten finish. In the last three races at NASCAR’s biggest track he’s finished 33rd, 35th and 25th.
Short Track Grade- A+, Kyle Busch is the best short track driver in NASCAR. At Bristol and Richmond he should be your default fantasy pick.
At Bristol Kyle Busch has won half the races in the COT. That’s pretty good in my book. Don’t worry if Kyle Busch qualifies badly at Thunder Valley, he always finds his way to the front.
Richmond is arguably his best track. His career average finish since 2005 is 5th. Only twice has he finished lower than 6th. His spring average finish is 2.28 and he’s won the last three races (spring races).
If you need a good pick to get out of sequence with your fantasy competitors at Martinsville consider Kyle Busch. At the “Paper Clip” he’s been about as good as anyone for about the last six races but his finishes don’t always reflect it. Last season he led 276 laps.
Road Course Track Grade- A-, Kyle Busch has won at both road courses. He’s especially strong at Watkins Glen. His only finish outside the top ten at “The Glen” was in his rookie year. In 2011 he lead more than half the race (49 laps) and was a serious challenger for the win (finished 3rd).
Since his 2008 win at Infineon he hasn’t finished higher than 11th. That doesn’t mean he’s not good there though. I would feel comfortable picking him.
How to use Kyle Busch from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2012? Kyle Busch can be used at nearly any track on the circuit. From an allocation perspective I would use him at short tracks, intermediate tracks, Watkins Glen, Pocono and the summer Daytona race.
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