Matt Kenseth 2012 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2011 Stats: Points Finish 4th, 3 Wins, 12 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Running Position 12.0, Average Finish 12.2, Laps Led 875, Driver Rating 98.9
Strengths- Kenseth is an elite driver at intermediate tracks. He’s a “winning robot” who’s capable of winning at any those venues.
Kenseth is also an extremely consistent driver. The Chase is a creation of his steady driving in 2003.
Weaknesses- Road courses and some short tracks have more than often proven to be troublesome for the #17 Roush Fenway Ford Fusion.
Intermediate Track Grade- A+, Year in and year out Kenseth always ranks among the top drivers on intermediate tracks. In 2012 I don’t see any reason for that to change.
Last season Kenseth scored the second most points on this track type (644 points) and had the highest driver rating (113.32). Him and Edwards both had an 8th place average running position and were also the only two drivers to have a single digit average finish. All three of his 2011 wins were at intermediate track venues (Texas, Dover and Charlotte).
Flat Track Grade- B+, At New Hampshire he finished sixth in the Chase race. That was his first top ten at Loudon since 2007. In the mid 2000’s Kenseth was a top ten machine here.
At Phoenix he finished 12th and 34th. His 34th place finish was the result of Brian Vickers exacting more revenge from their Martinsville mayhem. Before he was wrecked he led 49 laps on the new track layout. In 2010 Kenseth finished in the top ten in both races at Phoenix.
Indy is the flat track I like Kenseth the most on. He’s a consistent sleeper for the win and if you throw out the 2008 tire decable he has an average finish of 7.5 since 2002. His name hardly ever gets mentioned here but he’s definitely worth a look.
Pocono is also a good track for Kenseth. He’s had some mixed results as of late but he’s a consistent top fifteen driver. Last June he finished 8th. His overall average finish is 14.2.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, Last season Kenseth finished second in the summer Daytona race but beyond that things didn’t go smoothly for him at plate races. All of his other finishes were 18th or worse. However ifantsayrace.com grading isn’t based on just one year so he’s not graded on just 2011. I like Kenseth at plate races. He has a knack for them and is quite capable of getting the job done.
It is notable that I say I like him much more at Daytona. At Daytona he’s finished in the top ten in nearly half his races (46%). At Talladega he’s only finished in the top fifteen once since 2007 (14th place finish in spring 2007 race).
Short Track Grade- B, In terms of fantasy viability I’ll buy stock in Kenseth at Bristol no questions asked but at the other two short tracks I would steer clear of him.
Kenseth has two wins at Bristol. At “Thunder Valley” he’s finished in the top ten in seven of the last eight races. No other driver has accomplished this feat, not even Kyle Busch. His overall Bristol average finish is 12.0.
Richmond hasn’t been the best track for Kenseth. His last top ten there was in the spring 2007 race. I know personally that when I think of Kenseth at Richmond his 2009 Chase missing performance is engrained in my mind. Last season he finished 23rd and 21st but I think he was better than his finishes suggest.
Last year he had success on NASCAR’s oldest track (Martinsville). He finished sixth in the spring race and he ran quite well in the fall before him and Brian Vickers played bumper cars. Avoiding Roush Fenway cars at Martinsville is a fantasy racing rule of thumb of mine but it does seem like they’ve improved in recent years.
Road Course Track Grade- B, Kenseth isn’t as bad as many would speculate at road courses. In fact Mr. Consistent has largely lived up to his name at one of these venues. In the last five years all of his finishes at Watkins Glen have been between 12th and 14th. Don’t look for lap leading bonus points out of him here because he’s only led 1 lap at Watkins Glen and it was a decade ago. His average finish is a respectable 15.6
He hasn’t been as consistent at Infineon. His last four races have been somewhat across the board (8th [only top ten finish ever], 18th, 30th and 14th). If he avoids trouble though I think a mid to high teens finish should be expected.
How to use Matt Kenseth from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2012? The K.I.S.S principal comes into play in Fantasy NASCAR with Matt Kenseth. Use him at intermediate tracks and don’t get creative. You won’t regret it if you have him in your lineup at those venues.
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