Fantasy Scouting Report: Daytona 500
Drivers to watch in the Daytona 500:
Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a knack for plate racing and is always a contender. He has three wins on plate tracks and he knows how to draft as good as anyone. In the Shootout Harvick had a strong car but was involved in a wreck in the second segment. In his Duel race he finished 9th. As I said in his 2012 Fantasy Preview if you need a default pick take Harvick.
Carl Edwards – Only Carl Edwards and Juan Pablo Montoya have finished in the top ten in four out of the last five races at Daytona. His only finish outside the top ten in this stretch was last summer’s Coke Zero 400. In the Daytona 500 Edwards will start on the pole with teammate Greg Biffle on his side. Look for these two to team up early and often. When it comes to tandem drafting these two have been partners in the past.
Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is due for a Daytona 500 win and he has a strong chance this year. In his duel race he emerged the victor and as a result he’ll start right behind Carl Edwards. In the Bud Shootout Stewart finished second to Kyle Busch. In the last six Daytona races he’s averaged the the fourth most points per race (32).
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Daytona and Earnhardt’s go hand in hand. Last year he didn’t have success at Daytona but he has a pattern going on. In even year races at Daytona since 2008 his average finish is 5.75. His odd year average finish since 2007 is 29.5. Take this stat for what it’s worth. You can’t question his prowess in the draft though. In his duel race he finished second behind Tony Stewart
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is always strong at Daytona whether it’s the Daytona 500 or the July night race. When you extrapolate his loop data out to 2007 his driver rating is by far the best in the series (107.2 compared to second best Kurt Busch’s 99.1). He’s also lead in every race since then and has paced the pack for the most laps led (270). Last Saturday night Kyle Busch won the Bud Shootout.
Check out more of my rankings in these posts
Top Tier Elite, Front Runner, Mid Pack Projection and Drivers who don’t want to pick
How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Daytona 500:
- Pick drivers who were strong in the Gatorade Duel races (race #1 results, race #2 results). These are simulation races and are representative of how the Daytona 500 could play out. This is by far the most important step towards making an informed fantasy pick for the Daytona 500.
- Avoid drivers who are DNF magnets. If a driver is on their second or third car it’s perhaps best to keep shopping for an alternative. Also if a driver has been vocal about their dislike for this type of racing immediately remove them from your roster.
- Pick drivers who have a strong history on plate tracks. Some drivers have a knack for them and some don’t.
Daytona Average Points Per Race (PPR) over the last six races courtesy of FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
- Kurt Busch 34
- Matt Kenseth 34
- Juan Pablo Montoya 32
- Tony Stewart 32
- Carl Edwards 32
- Kevin Harvick 31
Daytona Driver Rating in the last six races courtesy of FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
- Kurt Busch (103.3)
- Kyle Busch (99.3)
- Carl Edwards (90.5)
- Kevin Harvick (89.7)
- Tony Stewart (88.6)
- Denny Hamlin (87.2)
- Clint Bowyer (87.1)
Looking for chassis selections for the Daytona 500? Check out this post on RobertsNASCARNotes.blogspot.com
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