Bristol Food City 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Front Runner” Picks
Ryan Newman – Newman is an very consistent driver at Bristol. Since the track was reconfigured in the summer 2007 race he has the second best average finish (8.4) and the third best driver rating (100.5). If your fantasy NASCAR league rewards qualifying points don’t overlook his pole in last summers race.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a safe pick at Bristol. He hasn’t finished outside the top twenty at Thunder Valley since 2001. It’s also notable though that in the COT he’s only led one lap. In the last three Bristol races he’s finished 16th, 11th and 13th (31 points per race).
Kevin Harvick – Harvick hasn’t found success in recent Bristol races. Since 2009 he’s only finished in the top ten once and he has an average finish of 20.2. It is notable though that for whatever reason RCR cars typically perform better in the spring race. Since 2005 his spring average finish is 8th. In the same time period his summer average finish is 20.3.
Tony Stewart – Picking Tony Stewart for the Food City 500 is a risky proposition. Since the track was reconfigured in the summer of 2007 he’s only finished in the top ten three times. Since then his average finish is 16.9 and he’s only raced in the top fifteen for about half the laps (50.7). In the last three races at Thunder Valley he’s finished 27th, 19th and 28th. Stewart has momentum right now so you can throw the stats out the window because he’s primed for a good performance in the Food City 500.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne is a driver who I think has really benefited from the track changes. He’s a driver who thrives on running the high line around tracks and that’s exactly where you’ll see him in the Food City 500. Kahne has finished in the top eleven in six of the last nine races at Bristol. His average finish in the last three races here is 8.3. I am worried though about all the problems he’s found on the track this season.
Jamie McMurray – If you need a good sleeper/ dark horse horse driver this week I really think Jamie McMurray might be your guy. In the last five Bristol races he has a 9.6 average finish and the 8th best driver rating (93.6). Last fall McMurray started 6th and finished 5th. Jamie McMurray is a “Skill driver” and that’s why he fares well here. Even early in his career he posted good results at Bristol. In his first four races at Thunder Valley he had a 7.5 average finish.
Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is an excellent short track driver. His Bristol results have been lacking recently but I don’t think you should be to worried. MWR as an organization has had some pretty good results at Bristol. In two of the last three races a driver from this organization has finished second. Bowyer has finished in the top ten in five of the last ten races at Bristol.
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has finished in the top ten in half his starts at Bristol. Ambrose has had good performances this year but his finishes haven’t been that good. Last summer he started 11th and finished in 10th. His best finish at Bristol was in the 2009 night race when he finished 3rd. In the Food City 500 Ambrose will be a “Front Runner” and I think he’ll finish somewhere between 8th and 15th.
Kurt Busch – Get your popcorn ready because this should be interesting. In the last five races at Bristol he has the third best average finish (8.6) and the second best average running position (7.6). How will he perform in the 51? I think he’ll be good for about a mid teens finish. He thrives at Bristol but he doesn’t have the equipment underneath him this year.
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Top Tier Elite > Front Runners > Mid Pack Projections > Drivers To Avoid
