Bristol Food City 500: Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Projections
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a driver who thrives on tracks where the high line comes into play. Last summer at Bristol he finished second to Brad Keselowski. He was strong in the spring as well despite finishing 17th (led 63 laps). In the last four Bristol races he’s finished 2nd, 17th, 17th and 12th. Another positive attribute about Truex at Thunder Valley is that he completes laps. In the last five races he’s completed all but 1 lap. In terms of ranking Truex for the Food City 500 I would consider him a low front runner / high mid pack driver.
Jeff Burton – Burton won the 2008 spring race on the new track surface. That race was a special for the RCR organization because they swept the top three positions. Burton also could’ve easily won the first COT race at Bristol instead of Kyle Busch but he’s simply to nice of a guy (video). Since 2009 Burton’s Bristol average finish is 14.5.
Joey Logano – Bristol statistically ranks as one of Joey Logano’s worst tracks. A 25.5 average finish for a driver at one of NASCAR’s elite teams is nothing to get excited about. However Logano did have his best finish last summer (13th). With his improved track performance in 2012 I predict fantasy racers should expect a mid teens performance this week (barring wrecks of course). If your league rewards qualifying points don’t overlook Logano. He has one pole at Bristol and three other top ten starts.
AJ Allmendinger – Out of all the drivers who I rank on a weekly basis Allmendinger has the worst average finish (28.1). Last summer he had his best finish (12th) so there’s hope for AJ fans. One thing you can’t discount this week is the quality of the Penske cars at this venue. Kurt Busch has thrived here and last summer Brad Keselowski visited victory lane. It is concerning though that he’s finished 30th or worse in six of his nine races at Bristol.
Aric Almirola – In his first race at Bristol Smith finished a disappointing 36th. In his next two race he finished 8th and 13th. My concerns about Almriola are that he hasn’t raced in 4 of the last five Bristol races and his two most recent Thunder Valley finishes are 39th and 35th. The sleeper potential is clear, but if your in an allocation league this isn’t the week to roll the dice on Almirola.
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya is a good mid pack driver to have on your team for the Food City 500. He typically finishes in the teens and more importantly he avoids really bad finishes. Only once in his ten races has he finished lower than 30th. In his ten races he’s also finished in the top ten twice. He typically runs better than he finishes here though. In the last nine Bristol races he has an average running position of 16.4, that’s better than Hamlin’s and Stewart’s.
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