Scouting Report: Bristol Food City 500
How to make an informed pick for the Bristol Food City 500:
- Study track data going back to the summer 2007 race. That was the first race on the new reconfigured track surface.
- Since Bristol is a “skill” track studying average finishes is a quick short cut to having a successful fantasy week. Average finishes at skill tracks hold their value.
- Happy Hour at Bristol will be important. Bristol isn’t a crash up derby anymore and I expect to see green flag pit stops.
- Qualifying doesn’t hold the value it used. In Kyle Busch’s four most recent wins he never started better than 12th. Bristol in many ways now is a mini intermediate track because drivers can simply change lanes and get around another driver.
- Drivers who’ve had lots of negative momentum lately should be avoided as a safety precaution. As I said this track isn’t a crash up derby anymore but it’s certainly no place for a driver to expect his negative fortunes to turn around.
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Five Drivers To Watch:
Jimmie Johnson – Since 2009 perhaps no one has been more impressive then Jimmie Johnson at Bristol. Since then he has five top tens and his only finish lower than that came courtesy of Juan Pablo Montoya’s front bumper. Another impressive stat of his in these six races is that he’s led +76 laps in each race. His driver rating in these races is the second best in the series (108.0).
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has won half the races at Bristol in the COT. How can you argue against that? Since 2007 he’s averaged a whooping 41 points per race (best in series by 5 points) and has an average running position of 7.9. I think almost all of the experts will be lining up behind Kyle Busch this week because of his near unrivaled dominance at Thunder Valley. If you want a safe pick for the Food City 500 take Kyle Busch.
Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl is a two time winner at Bristol and since the track was reconfigured he’s never finished lower than 16th. Carl won the very first race on the new track configuration and in 2008 he visited victory lane again. Last spring Edwards finished second to Kyle Busch. In the 2011 summer race he finished 9th.
Greg Biffle – Biffle finished 31st last summer but in the four previous races he finished 8th, 8th 4th and 4th. Biffle has been impressive thus far this season and he’s a good driver who often flies below the radar. If you want an out of sequence driver for the Food City 500 Biffle might just be who your looking for. Since 2005 he’s only finished lower than 11th three times. That’s the definition of consistency at Bristol. Kyle Busch has four finishes lower than 11th in this time period.
Jeff Gordon – “Big Daddy” Jeff Gordon had the best car last summer but Brad Keselowski beat him on pit road. In that race he led 206 laps and posted the best driver rating (133.7). In the three previous races to last summers race he finished 14th, 11th and 14th. In 38 races at Bristol Gordon has five wins and 21 top ten finishes.
For More Bristol Driver Rankings Information Check Out These Posts:
Top Tier Elite > Front Runners > Mid Pack Projections > Drivers To Avoid
Sleepers you might want to consider:
Marcos Ambrose – Half his finishes have been in the top ten. Only one finish lower than 20th. Finished 10th last summer.
Jamie McMurray – Four finishes in the top 11 in the last five Bristol races. Finished 5th last summer.
Kurt Busch – It’s hard to call him a sleeper but Bristol is a “skill track” and he’ll help negate “Phoenix Racing” issues to a degree.
AJ Allmendinger – Finished 12th last summer and should look even better in a Penske car this Sunday.
Some notables who underperformed last summer at Bristol:
- Kyle Busch
- Tony Stewart
- Kevin Harvick
- Greg Biffle
- Clint Bowyer
Current Total Driver Power Rankings Top Five:
- Greg Biffle – 108.499
- Matt Kenseth – 106.254
- Carl Edwards – 102.578
- Kyle Busch – 100.242
- Tony Stewart – 99.523
